Mets360 Draft series: The 2005 MLB Draft

There is a superstition that bad things come in threes.  That certainly seems to have held true for the first half dozen Major League Baseball Amateur Drafts of the 21^st century – even the ones dripping with talent, like the 2005 edition.

The Seattle Mariners’ selection of catcher Jeff Clement with the third pick of the 2005 draft continued a string of six consecutive players picked in that spot to have either not made the majors or managed a career bWAR less than 1.0.

Clement produced a -1.2 bWAR in a career that spanned parts of four major league seasons, joining Luis Montanez and Dewon Brazelton as No. 3 picks with negative career bWAR from the first six drafts of the 2000s.  Philip Humber, who went to the Mets at No. 3 in 2004, posted that slot’s high-water mark from that period with a 0.9 bWAR.  Chris Gruler and Kyle Sleeth, chosen third in 2002 and 2003, respectively, never made the majors.

Seattle’s only top-100 choice in 2005, Clement stuck out like a sore thumb in terms of futility due in large part to the selections around him.  The other players drafted within the top dozen that year have combined for a 277.4 bWAR.

Here are the top 100 picks from 2005 in chronological order:

OvPck	Team	Signed	Name	WAR	Type
1	Diamondbacks	Y	Justin Upton	32.4	HS
2	Royals	Y	Alex Gordon	32.7	4Yr
3	Mariners	Y	Jeff Clement	-1.2	4Yr
4	Nationals	Y	Ryan Zimmerman	36.5	4Yr
5	Brewers	Y	Ryan Braun	45.6	4Yr
6	Blue Jays	Y	Ricky Romero	9.7	4Yr
7	Rockies	Y	Troy Tulowitzki	43.8	4Yr
8	Devil Rays	Y	Wade Townsend		4Yr
9	Mets	Y	Mike Pelfrey	4.8	4Yr
10	Tigers	Y	Cameron Maybin	13	HS
11	Pirates	Y	Andrew McCutchen	40.1	HS
12	Reds	Y	Jay Bruce	18.8	HS
13	Orioles	Y	Brandon Snyder	0	HS
14	Indians	Y	Trevor Crowe	0	4Yr
15	White Sox	Y	Lance Broadway	0.3	4Yr
16	Marlins	Y	Chris Volstad	2.6	HS
17	Yankees via Phillies	Y	*C.J. Henry		HS
18	Padres	Y	Cesar Carrillo	-0.7	4Yr
19	Rangers	Y	John Mayberry	0.7	4Yr
20	Cubs	Y	Mark Pawelek		HS
21	Athletics	Y	Cliff Pennington	11.1	4Yr
22	Marlins via Giants	Y	*Aaron Thompson	-0.1	HS
23	Red Sox via Angels	Y	*Jacoby Ellsbury	30.9	4Yr
24	Astros	Y	Brian Bogusevic	2.1	4Yr
25	Twins	Y	Matt Garza	12.2	4Yr
26	Red Sox via Dodgers	Y	*Craig Hansen	-1.9	4Yr
27	Braves	Y	Joey Devine	2.1	4Yr
28	Cardinals via Red Sox	Y	*Colby Rasmus	19.5	HS
29	Marlins via Yankees	Y	*Jacob Marceaux		4Yr
30	Cardinals	Y	Tyler Greene	-0.6	4Yr
31	Diamondbacks	Y	*Matt Torra		4Yr
32	Rockies	Y	*Chaz Roe	0.7	HS
33	Indians	Y	*Johnny Drennen		HS
34	Marlins	Y	*Ryan Tucker	-1.3	HS
35	Padres	Y	*Cesar Ramos	1.3	4Yr
36	Athletics	Y	*Travis Buck	3.1	4Yr
37	Angels	Y	*Trevor Bell	-1.2	HS
38	Astros	Y	*Eli Iorg		4Yr
39	Twins	Y	*Hank Sanchez		HS
40	Dodgers	N	*Luke Hochevar	3.1	4Yr
41	Braves	Y	*Beau Jones		HS
42	Red Sox	Y	*Clay Buchholz	15.5	JC
43	Cardinals	Y	*Mark McCormick		4Yr
44	Marlins	Y	*Sean West	-0.1	HS
45	Red Sox	Y	*Jed Lowrie	12.6	4Yr
46	Cardinals	Y	*Tyler Herron		HS
47	Red Sox	Y	*Michael Bowden	0.8	HS
48	Orioles	Y	*Garrett Olson	-2.7	4Yr
49	Diamondbacks	Y	Matt Green		4Yr
50	Royals	Y	Jeff Bianchi	0.5	HS
51	Dodgers via Mariners	Y	*Ivan De Jesus	-1.5
52	Rockies via Nationals	Y	*Daniel Carte		4Yr
53	Athletics via Brewers	Y	*Craig Italiano		HS
54	Twins via Blue Jays	Y	*Paul Kelly		HS
55	Rockies	Y	Zach Simons		JC
56	Devil Rays	Y	Chris Mason		4Yr
57	Red Sox via Mets	Y	*Jonathan Egan		HS
58	Angels via Tigers	Y	*Ryan Mount		HS
59	Pirates	Y	Brad Corley		4Yr
60	Reds	Y	Travis Wood	7.1	HS
61	Orioles	Y	Nolan Reimold	2.2	4Yr
62	Indians	Y	Stephen Head		4Yr
63	Yankees via White Sox	Y	*J.B. Cox		4Yr
64	Marlins	Y	Kris Harvey		4Yr
65	Phillies	Y	Mike Costanzo	-0.6	4Yr
66	Padres	Y	Chase Headley	26.8	4Yr
67	Rangers	Y	John Whittleman		HS
68	Cubs	Y	Donnie Veal	0	JC
69	Athletics	Y	Jared Lansford		HS
70	Cardinals via Giants	Y	*Josh Wilson		HS
71	Angels	Y	P.J. Phillips		HS
72	Astros	Y	Ralph Henriquez		HS
73	Twins	Y	Kevin Slowey	4.6	4Yr
74	Dodgers	Y	Josh Wall	-1	HS
75	Braves	Y	Yunel Escobar	26.7
76	Padres via Red Sox	Y	*Nick Hundley	7.7	4Yr
77	Braves via Yankees	Y	*Jeff Lyman		HS
78	Cardinals	Y	Nicholas Webber		4Yr
79	Marlins	Y	*Brett Hayes	-1.3	4Yr
80	Twins	Y	*Drew Thompson		HS
81	Diamondbacks	Y	Jason Neighborgall		4Yr
82	Royals	Y	Chris Nicoll		4Yr
83	Diamondbacks via Mariners	Y	*Micah Owings	4	4Yr
84	Twins via Nationals	Y	*Brian Duensing	7.8	4Yr
85	Brewers	Y	Will Inman		HS
86	Blue Jays	Y	Brian Pettway		4Yr
87	Rockies	Y	Kyle Hancock		HS
88	Devil Rays	N	Bryan Morris	2.6	HS
89	Astros via Mets	Y	*Tommy Manzella	-1.4	4Yr
90	Tigers	Y	Chris Robinson	0	4Yr
91	Pirates	Y	James Boone		4Yr
92	Reds	Y	Zach Ward		4Yr
93	Orioles	Y	Brandon Erbe		HS
94	Indians	Y	Nick Weglarz
95	White Sox	Y	Ricky Brooks		4Yr
96	Marlins	Y	Matthew Goyen		4Yr
97	Phillies	Y	Matt Maloney	-0.2	4Yr
98	Padres	Y	Josh Geer	-0.7	4Yr
99	Rangers	Y	Taylor Teagarden	0.4	4Yr
100	Cubs	Y	Mark Holliman		4Yr

There’s no shortage of big names near the top, with the best of that bunch in terms of bWAR being fifth overall pick Ryan Braun (45.6).  Troy Tulowitzki, who went two picks after Braun, checks in with the second-best bWAR of the top 100 at 43.8, including a draft-best six 5-win seasons.  The two players taken ahead of Clement – Justin Upton and Alex Gordon – have accumulated nearly identical bWAR of 32.4 and 32.7, respectively.

Upton’s older brother Melvin, who went by B.J. at the time, was the second overall pick three years earlier.  To date, the younger Upton has a healthy 15.8 advantage in career bWAR as he enters his 12^th major league season.  Melvin last played in 2016.

The Mets’ only top-100 selection was Mike Pelfrey, who went ninth overall and was the third pitcher off the board.  He spent the first seven years of his major league career in New York, highlighted by a 15-win campaign in 2010.  Since that season, however, he has managed just a 25-62 record with four organizations.  His career 4.8 bWAR ranks just outside the top 20 among the first 100 players taken in his draft class.

Below is the list ranked by bWAR:

OvPck	Team	Signed	Name	WAR	Type
5	Brewers	Y	Ryan Braun	45.6	4Yr
7	Rockies	Y	Troy Tulowitzki	43.8	4Yr
11	Pirates	Y	Andrew McCutchen	40.1	HS
4	Nationals	Y	Ryan Zimmerman	36.5	4Yr
2	Royals	Y	Alex Gordon	32.7	4Yr
1	Diamondbacks	Y	Justin Upton	32.4	HS
23	Red Sox via Angels	Y	*Jacoby Ellsbury	30.9	4Yr
66	Padres	Y	Chase Headley	26.8	4Yr
75	Braves	Y	Yunel Escobar	26.7
28	Cardinals via Red Sox	Y	*Colby Rasmus	19.5	HS
12	Reds	Y	Jay Bruce	18.8	HS
42	Red Sox	Y	*Clay Buchholz	15.5	JC
10	Tigers	Y	Cameron Maybin	13	HS
45	Red Sox	Y	*Jed Lowrie	12.6	4Yr
25	Twins	Y	Matt Garza	12.2	4Yr
21	Athletics	Y	Cliff Pennington	11.1	4Yr
6	Blue Jays	Y	Ricky Romero	9.7	4Yr
84	Twins via Nationals	Y	*Brian Duensing	7.8	4Yr
76	Padres via Red Sox	Y	*Nick Hundley	7.7	4Yr
60	Reds	Y	Travis Wood	7.1	HS
9	Mets	Y	Mike Pelfrey	4.8	4Yr
73	Twins	Y	Kevin Slowey	4.6	4Yr
83	Diamondbacks via Mariners	Y	*Micah Owings	4	4Yr
36	Athletics	Y	*Travis Buck	3.1	4Yr
40	Dodgers	N	*Luke Hochevar	3.1	4Yr
16	Marlins	Y	Chris Volstad	2.6	HS
88	Devil Rays	N	Bryan Morris	2.6	HS
61	Orioles	Y	Nolan Reimold	2.2	4Yr
24	Astros	Y	Brian Bogusevic	2.1	4Yr
27	Braves	Y	Joey Devine	2.1	4Yr
35	Padres	Y	*Cesar Ramos	1.3	4Yr
47	Red Sox	Y	*Michael Bowden	0.8	HS
19	Rangers	Y	John Mayberry	0.7	4Yr
32	Rockies	Y	*Chaz Roe	0.7	HS
50	Royals	Y	Jeff Bianchi	0.5	HS
99	Rangers	Y	Taylor Teagarden	0.4	4Yr
15	White Sox	Y	Lance Broadway	0.3	4Yr
13	Orioles	Y	Brandon Snyder	0	HS
14	Indians	Y	Trevor Crowe	0	4Yr
68	Cubs	Y	Donnie Veal	0	JC
90	Tigers	Y	Chris Robinson	0	4Yr
22	Marlins via Giants	Y	*Aaron Thompson	-0.1	HS
44	Marlins	Y	*Sean West	-0.1	HS
97	Phillies	Y	Matt Maloney	-0.2	4Yr
30	Cardinals	Y	Tyler Greene	-0.6	4Yr
65	Phillies	Y	Mike Costanzo	-0.6	4Yr
18	Padres	Y	Cesar Carrillo	-0.7	4Yr
98	Padres	Y	Josh Geer	-0.7	4Yr
74	Dodgers	Y	Josh Wall	-1	HS
3	Mariners	Y	Jeff Clement	-1.2	4Yr
37	Angels	Y	*Trevor Bell	-1.2	HS
34	Marlins	Y	*Ryan Tucker	-1.3	HS
79	Marlins	Y	*Brett Hayes	-1.3	4Yr
89	Astros via Mets	Y	*Tommy Manzella	-1.4	4Yr
51	Dodgers via Mariners	Y	*Ivan De Jesus	-1.5
26	Red Sox via Dodgers	Y	*Craig Hansen	-1.9	4Yr
48	Orioles	Y	*Garrett Olson	-2.7	4Yr
64	Marlins	Y	Kris Harvey		4Yr
85	Brewers	Y	Will Inman		HS
92	Reds	Y	Zach Ward		4Yr
94	Indians	Y	Nick Weglarz
8	Devil Rays	Y	Wade Townsend		4Yr
17	Yankees via Phillies	Y	*C.J. Henry		HS
20	Cubs	Y	Mark Pawelek		HS
29	Marlins via Yankees	Y	*Jacob Marceaux		4Yr
31	Diamondbacks	Y	*Matt Torra		4Yr
33	Indians	Y	*Johnny Drennen		HS
38	Astros	Y	*Eli Iorg		4Yr
39	Twins	Y	*Hank Sanchez		HS
41	Braves	Y	*Beau Jones		HS
43	Cardinals	Y	*Mark McCormick		4Yr
46	Cardinals	Y	*Tyler Herron		HS
49	Diamondbacks	Y	Matt Green		4Yr
52	Rockies via Nationals	Y	*Daniel Carte		4Yr
53	Athletics via Brewers	Y	*Craig Italiano		HS
54	Twins via Blue Jays	Y	*Paul Kelly		HS
55	Rockies	Y	Zach Simons		JC
56	Devil Rays	Y	Chris Mason		4Yr
57	Red Sox via Mets	Y	*Jonathan Egan		HS
58	Angels via Tigers	Y	*Ryan Mount		HS
59	Pirates	Y	Brad Corley		4Yr
62	Indians	Y	Stephen Head		4Yr
63	Yankees via White Sox	Y	*J.B. Cox		4Yr
67	Rangers	Y	John Whittleman		HS
69	Athletics	Y	Jared Lansford		HS
70	Cardinals via Giants	Y	*Josh Wilson		HS
71	Angels	Y	P.J. Phillips		HS
72	Astros	Y	Ralph Henriquez		HS
77	Braves via Yankees	Y	*Jeff Lyman		HS
78	Cardinals	Y	Nicholas Webber		4Yr
80	Twins	Y	*Drew Thompson		HS
81	Diamondbacks	Y	Jason Neighborgall		4Yr
82	Royals	Y	Chris Nicoll		4Yr
86	Blue Jays	Y	Brian Pettway		4Yr
87	Rockies	Y	Kyle Hancock		HS
91	Pirates	Y	James Boone		4Yr
93	Orioles	Y	Brandon Erbe		HS
95	White Sox	Y	Ricky Brooks		4Yr
96	Marlins	Y	Matthew Goyen		4Yr
100	Cubs	Y	Mark Holliman		4Yr

The draft turned out to be a long-term winner for many clubs, with each of the top five bWAR performers within the first 100 picks staying with the organization that drafted him for at least a decade.  Andrew McCutchen, whose 40.1 bWAR is third among the draft’s top 100, was the face of the Pittsburgh Pirates before they traded him to San Francisco this winter.  He has finished in the top-five in National League MVP voting four times, winning the award in 2013.

The Boston Red Sox had six selections crammed into a 35-pick span from Nos. 23-57.  Jacoby Ellsbury was the first choice of that crew and has posted a solid bWAR of 30.9.  The Red Sox also had Clay Buchholz and Jed Lowrie among the top 15 percent of the players chosen within the top 100 based on bWAR with 15.5 and 12.6, respectively.

The 2005 draft thus far has produced nine players with at least 25 career bWAR, the highest total to date in this series.  It paid to have a high pick in this draft, as six of the top 11 players selected have a bWAR value above 32.

Unfortunately for Bill Bavasi, who was making the initial first-round pick of his tenure as general manager of the Mariners, he was saddled with the seemingly cursed No. 3 pick and whiffed.  Andrew Friedman, who was hired as general manager of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays following the 2005 season, would break the curse in spectacular fashion with his debut choice at No. 3 in 2006.  Stay tuned!