Mets360 Draft series: The 2007 MLB Draft

For the first time in this Mets360 series, it feels like bWAR numbers are not reflective of a draft’s impact. The 2007 edition does not have anyone from its top 100 with a career bWAR over 40 (each of the previous two drafts had three), but it features multiple Cy Young Award winners and MVPs among a host of established MLB stars. With some in the group just beginning to gain traction among the game’s elite, the best may still be yet to come for the 2007 draft.

The most recent MLB season had fingerprints from the 2007 draft’s top 100 all over it. Giancarlo Stanton, who went by Mike when chosen 76th by the Florida Marlins that year, was named NL MVP on the strength of a 59-homer campaign. The guy who went two picks later – Freddie Freeman by the Atlanta Braves – ranked sixth in the NL with a .586 slugging percentage last year. Both Stanton and Freeman were drafted out of high school in 2007 and are just 28.

Another player drafted out of high school early in the 2007 draft was Mike Moustakas, who seemed to hit his stride with a career-high 38 homers in 2017. Moustakas, who went second overall to the Royals in ’07, had 81 homers in his first six seasons. Taken 94 selections later by Kansas City, Danny Duffy looks to be entering his reign as that organization’s ace.

Even pick No. 100 in 2007 – Steven Souza – clicked in 2017 with a 30-homer campaign as a member of the Tampa Bay Rays. Drafted out of high school by the Nationals in 2007, Souza will begin the 2018 campaign with 6.0 career bWAR – 4.2 of which came last year.

Here’s a look at the top 100 picks from 2007 in chronological order:

OvPck Team Signed Name WAR Type
1 Devil Rays Y David Price 33.7 4Yr
2 Royals Y Mike Moustakas 11.4 HS
3 Cubs Y Josh Vitters -1.3 HS
4 Pirates Y Daniel Moskos 0.3 4Yr
5 Orioles Y Matt Wieters 15.8 4Yr
6 Nationals Y Ross Detwiler 0.3 4Yr
7 Brewers Y Matt LaPorta -0.9 4Yr
8 Rockies Y Casey Weathers 4Yr
9 Diamondbacks Y Jarrod Parker 6.1 HS
10 Giants Y Madison Bumgarner 32.6 HS
11 Mariners Y Phillippe Aumont -0.6 HS
12 Marlins Y Matt Dominguez 0.6 HS
13 Indians Y Beau Mills 4Yr
14 Braves Y Jason Heyward 34.9 HS
15 Reds Y Devin Mesoraco 3.7 HS
16 Blue Jays via Rangers Y *Kevin Ahrens HS
17 Rangers via Astros Y *Blake Beavan 1.5 HS
18 Cardinals Y Pete Kozma -0.5 HS
19 Phillies Y Joe Savery 0 4Yr
20 Dodgers via Red Sox Y *Chris Withrow 1.5 HS
21 Blue Jays Y J.P. Arencibia 2.7 4Yr
22 Giants via Dodgers Y *Tim Alderson HS
23 Padres Y Nick Schmidt 4Yr
24 Rangers via Angels Y *Michael Main HS
25 White Sox Y Aaron Poreda 0.2 4Yr
26 Athletics Y James Simmons 4Yr
27 Tigers Y Rick Porcello 16.1 HS
28 Twins Y Ben Revere 6.2 HS
29 Giants via Mets Y *Wendell Fairley HS
30 Yankees Y Andrew Brackman 0.1 4Yr
31 Nationals Y *Josh Smoker -0.3 HS
32 Giants Y *Nick Noonan -1.3 HS
33 Braves Y *Jon Gilmore HS
34 Reds Y *Todd Frazier 22 4Yr
35 Rangers Y *Julio Borbon 1.8 4Yr
36 Cardinals Y *Clayton Mortensen -0.5 4Yr
37 Phillies Y *Travis d’Arnaud 2 HS
38 Blue Jays Y *Brett Cecil 7.4 4Yr
39 Dodgers Y *James Adkins 4Yr
40 Padres Y *Kevin Kulbacki 4Yr
41 Athletics Y *Sean Doolittle 5.8 4Yr
42 Mets Y *Eddie Kunz -0.2 4Yr
43 Giants Y *Jackson Williams 0.1 4Yr
44 Rangers Y *Neil Ramirez 0.4 HS
45 Blue Jays Y *Justin Jackson HS
46 Padres Y *Drew Cumberland HS
47 Mets Y *Nathan Vineyard HS
48 Cubs Y *Josh Donaldson 37.3 4Yr
49 Nationals Y *Michael Burgess HS
50 Diamondbacks Y *Wes Roemer 4Yr
51 Giants Y *Charlie Culberson -0.9 HS
52 Mariners Y *Matt Mangini -0.2 4Yr
53 Reds Y *Kyle Lotzkar
54 Rangers Y *Tommy Hunter 8.5 4Yr
55 Red Sox Y *Nick Hagadone -0.2 4Yr
56 Blue Jays Y *Trystan Magnuson -0.2 4Yr
57 Padres Y *Mitch Canham 4Yr
58 Angels Y *Jon Bachanov HS
59 Athletics Y Corey Brown 0.4 4Yr
60 Tigers Y *Brandon Hamilton HS
61 Diamondbacks Y *Ed Easley -0.1 4Yr
62 Red Sox N *Ryan Dent HS
63 Padres Y *Cory Luebke 2.2 4Yr
64 Padres Y *Danny Payne   4Yr
65 Devil Rays Y Will Kline 4Yr
66 Royals Y Sam Runion HS
67 Nationals via Cubs Y *Jordan Zimmermann 21.6 4Yr
68 Pirates Y Duke Welker 0 4Yr
69 Braves via Orioles N *Josh Fields 1 4Yr
70 Nationals Y Jake Smolinksi 0.6 HS
71 Cardinals via Brewers Y *David Kopp 4Yr
72 Rockies Y Brian Rike 4Yr
73 Diamondbacks Y Barry Enright -0.1 4Yr
74 Athletics via Giants Y *Grant Desme 4Yr
75 Mariners Y Denny Almonte HS
76 Marlins Y Giancarlo Stanton 35.1 HS
77 Mets via Indians Y *Scott Moviel HS
78 Braves Y Freddie Freeman 26.6 HS
79 Reds Y Zack Cozart 16.5 4Yr
80 Rangers Y Matt West 0.1 HS
81 Padres via Astros Y *Eric Sogard 5.6 4Yr
82 Cardinals Y Jess Todd -0.4 4Yr
83 Phillies Y Travis Mattair HS
84 Red Sox N Hunter Morris HS
85 Blue Jays Y John Tolisano   HS
86 Dodgers Y Mike Watt HS
87 Padres Y Brad Chalk 4Yr
88 Blue Jays via Angels Y *Eric Eiland HS
89 White Sox Y Nevin Griffith HS
90 Athletics Y Josh Horton 4Yr
91 Tigers Y Danny Worth -0.7 4Yr
92 Twins Y Danny Rams   HS
93 Mets Y Brant Rustich 4Yr
94 Yankees Y Austin Romine -2 HS
95 Devil Rays Y Nick Barnese HS
96 Royals Y Danny Duffy 13.5 HS
97 Cubs Y Tony Thomas 4Yr
98 Pirates Y Brian Friday 4Yr
99 Mets via Orioles Y *Eric Niesen 4Yr
100 Nationals Y Steven Souza 6 HS

The top pick in the draft was lefty David Price, who paid dividends for Tampa Bay almost immediately. A polished pitcher who dominated collegiately at Vanderbilt, Price required just 19 minor league starts – winning 12 – before being summoned to the big club in 2008. He was trusted in big spots for the Devil Rays in the postseason that year and recorded a win and a save in the ALCS against Boston.

Price has finished at least second in AL Cy Young Award balloting three times, winning the award in 2012. He also can lay claim to two AL ERA titles and a strikeout crown, ranking as the best pitcher from draft’s top 100 in career bWAR with 33.7.

Right behind Price in that department is 10th overall pick Madison Bumgarner, who has accumulated 32.6 bWAR. Arguably more valuable than Price when you factor in the postseason, Bumgarner has won three World Series rings with the San Francisco Giants. In those series, he has gone 4-0 with a 0.25 ERA. That’s one run allowed in 36 World Series innings.

Thus far, the top producer in bWAR from the first 100 choices in 2007 is Josh Donaldson with a value of 37.3. Chosen 48th by the Chicago Cubs but traded to Oakland in the summer of 2008, Donaldson has received MVP votes following each of the last five seasons. He won the award in 2015 and finished fourth in balloting in both 2013 and 2016.

Stanton is second in bWAR followed by Jason Heyward, whose 34.9 career bWAR is bolstered by a defensive WAR value of 12.5. He has claimed five Gold Gloves in eight MLB seasons.

The top 10 in terms of bWAR is rounded out by Rick Porcello, who won a Cy Young Award with the Red Sox in 2016. Here’s how the list looks sorted by bWAR:

OvPck Team Signed Name WAR Type
48 Cubs Y *Josh Donaldson 37.3 4Yr
76 Marlins Y Giancarlo Stanton 35.1 HS
14 Braves Y Jason Heyward 34.9 HS
1 Devil Rays Y David Price 33.7 4Yr
10 Giants Y Madison Bumgarner 32.6 HS
78 Braves Y Freddie Freeman 26.6 HS
34 Reds Y *Todd Frazier 22 4Yr
67 Nationals via Cubs Y *Jordan Zimmermann 21.6 4Yr
79 Reds Y Zack Cozart 16.5 4Yr
27 Tigers Y Rick Porcello 16.1 HS
5 Orioles Y Matt Wieters 15.8 4Yr
96 Royals Y Danny Duffy 13.5 HS
2 Royals Y Mike Moustakas 11.4 HS
54 Rangers Y *Tommy Hunter 8.5 4Yr
38 Blue Jays Y *Brett Cecil 7.4 4Yr
28 Twins Y Ben Revere 6.2 HS
9 Diamondbacks Y Jarrod Parker 6.1 HS
100 Nationals Y Steven Souza 6 HS
41 Athletics Y *Sean Doolittle 5.8 4Yr
81 Padres via Astros Y *Eric Sogard 5.6 4Yr
15 Reds Y Devin Mesoraco 3.7 HS
21 Blue Jays Y J.P. Arencibia 2.7 4Yr
63 Padres Y *Cory Luebke 2.2 4Yr
37 Phillies Y *Travis d’Arnaud 2 HS
35 Rangers Y *Julio Borbon 1.8 4Yr
17 Rangers via Astros Y *Blake Beavan 1.5 HS
20 Dodgers via Red Sox Y *Chris Withrow 1.5 HS
69 Braves via Orioles N *Josh Fields 1 4Yr
12 Marlins Y Matt Dominguez 0.6 HS
70 Nationals Y Jake Smolinksi 0.6 HS
44 Rangers Y *Neil Ramirez 0.4 HS
59 Athletics Y Corey Brown 0.4 4Yr
4 Pirates Y Daniel Moskos 0.3 4Yr
6 Nationals Y Ross Detwiler 0.3 4Yr
25 White Sox Y Aaron Poreda 0.2 4Yr
30 Yankees Y Andrew Brackman 0.1 4Yr
43 Giants Y *Jackson Williams 0.1 4Yr
80 Rangers Y Matt West 0.1 HS
19 Phillies Y Joe Savery 0 4Yr
68 Pirates Y Duke Welker 0 4Yr
61 Diamondbacks Y *Ed Easley -0.1 4Yr
73 Diamondbacks Y Barry Enright -0.1 4Yr
42 Mets Y *Eddie Kunz -0.2 4Yr
52 Mariners Y *Matt Mangini -0.2 4Yr
55 Red Sox Y *Nick Hagadone -0.2 4Yr
56 Blue Jays Y *Trystan Magnuson -0.2 4Yr
31 Nationals Y *Josh Smoker -0.3 HS
82 Cardinals Y Jess Todd -0.4 4Yr
18 Cardinals Y Pete Kozma -0.5 HS
36 Cardinals Y *Clayton Mortensen -0.5 4Yr
11 Mariners Y Phillippe Aumont -0.6 HS
91 Tigers Y Danny Worth -0.7 4Yr
7 Brewers Y Matt LaPorta -0.9 4Yr
51 Giants Y *Charlie Culberson -0.9 HS
3 Cubs Y Josh Vitters -1.3 HS
32 Giants Y *Nick Noonan -1.3 HS
94 Yankees Y Austin Romine -2 HS
64 Padres Y *Danny Payne   4Yr
85 Blue Jays Y John Tolisano   HS
92 Twins Y Danny Rams   HS
8 Rockies Y Casey Weathers 4Yr
13 Indians Y Beau Mills 4Yr
16 Blue Jays via Rangers Y *Kevin Ahrens HS
22 Giants via Dodgers Y *Tim Alderson HS
23 Padres Y Nick Schmidt 4Yr
24 Rangers via Angels Y *Michael Main HS
26 Athletics Y James Simmons 4Yr
29 Giants via Mets Y *Wendell Fairley HS
33 Braves Y *Jon Gilmore HS
39 Dodgers Y *James Adkins 4Yr
40 Padres Y *Kevin Kulbacki 4Yr
45 Blue Jays Y *Justin Jackson HS
46 Padres Y *Drew Cumberland HS
47 Mets Y *Nathan Vineyard HS
49 Nationals Y *Michael Burgess HS
50 Diamondbacks Y *Wes Roemer 4Yr
53 Reds Y *Kyle Lotzkar
57 Padres Y *Mitch Canham 4Yr
58 Angels Y *Jon Bachanov HS
60 Tigers Y *Brandon Hamilton HS
62 Red Sox N *Ryan Dent HS
65 Devil Rays Y Will Kline 4Yr
66 Royals Y Sam Runion HS
71 Cardinals via Brewers Y *David Kopp 4Yr
72 Rockies Y Brian Rike 4Yr
74 Athletics via Giants Y *Grant Desme 4Yr
75 Mariners Y Denny Almonte HS
77 Mets via Indians Y *Scott Moviel HS
83 Phillies Y Travis Mattair HS
84 Red Sox N Hunter Morris HS
86 Dodgers Y Mike Watt HS
87 Padres Y Brad Chalk 4Yr
88 Blue Jays via Angels Y *Eric Eiland HS
89 White Sox Y Nevin Griffith HS
90 Athletics Y Josh Horton 4Yr
93 Mets Y Brant Rustich 4Yr
95 Devil Rays Y Nick Barnese HS
97 Cubs Y Tony Thomas 4Yr
98 Pirates Y Brian Friday 4Yr
99 Mets via Orioles Y *Eric Niesen 4Yr

It unfortunately takes a lot of scrolling to find a Met in this table. Of the five Mets drafted among the top 100 in 2007, only Eddie Kunz made the majors and he produced a negative bWAR. On the bright side, the Mets have gotten all 2.0 of Travis d’Arnaud’s career bWAR and did recently sign Todd Frazier, who has produced the list’s seventh-highest value to date.

Including the selection of Frazier, who was a supplemental first-round pick, the Reds fared well in this draft with three of their four top-100 choices turning a positive bWAR. Zack Cozart, who went 79th overall, is coming off his best season in the majors. His .297 average and career-best 24 homers contributed to a 4.9 bWAR in 2017, elevating his career value in that category to 16.5. Devin Mesoraco, who was the Reds’ first pick (15th overall) in 2007, has produced 3.7 career bWAR.

Overall, 38 of the first 100 players taken in 2007 have managed a bWAR on the positive side. While only five players have recorded a career bWAR over 30, that number seems destined to rise considerably in the years to come.

2 comments for “Mets360 Draft series: The 2007 MLB Draft

  1. MattyMets
    February 14, 2018 at 8:20 am

    Having had a big year in ‘06 cost the Mets a high pick in a strong draft, but there were a lot of stars drafted in later rounds and the Mets scouts failed to recognize a single one.

    With Donaldson, Stanton and Freeman still available we took Eddie Kunz and Nathan Vineyard. Woopsie.

    • February 14, 2018 at 9:39 am

      Vineyard got hurt and that happens with pitchers. The one that really is painful was Kunz because it was a reach at the time. The Mets wanted an arm that was going to be able to help ASAP. And that’s another example why you take the best available player and not pick for “need” in the draft.

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