Mets360 2018 projections: Jacob deGrom

When everything was falling to pieces all around him last year, Jacob deGrom gave the Mets a measure of stability. He posted career highs in Wins (15), IP (201.1) and Strikeouts (239) and claimed his second top 10 finish in the CY Award race. From a personal point of view, perhaps the biggest disappointment was that for the second year in a row, he got left off the All-Star team despite some strong numbers. While in 2016 he didn’t have the Wins, last year he was 9-3 with 130 Ks at the break and was passed over.

His overall numbers might have been even better had he not run into some trouble late in the year. He had a five-start stretch from mid-August to early September where he allowed 24 Runs in 31 IP. But deGrom righted the ship in his last three starts, posting a 2.37 ERA with 5 BB and 28 Ks in his final 19 IP.

One area of concern for deGrom was the number of homers he allowed last year. After giving up 31 homers combined over the 2015-16 seasons, he served up 28 gopher balls last year. He’s seen his HR/9 go from 0.45 in 2014 to 0.75 to 0.91 and 1.25 in 2017.

Here are our individual numbers for deGrom:

Innings ERA K’s BB HR FIP All-Star
Dalton Allison 205 2.34 230 40 20 2.74 Yes
Joe Barbieri 204.3 3.08 226 49 16 2.66 Yes
John Fox 194 3.36 225 49 24 3.18 Yes
David Groveman 193 3.11 215 47 30 3.66 Yes
Charlie Hangley 210 2.96 196 26 13 2.44 Yes
Brian Joura 195 3.40 201 65 22 3.54 No
Mike Koehler 200 3.05 215 56 23 3.32 Yes
Matt Netter 210 2.95 219 44 14 2.54 Yes
Jim O’Malley 185 3.21 202 46 26 3.52 Yes
Rob Rogan 202 3.25 220 55 21 3.12 No
Mike Walczak 189 3.70 195 68 24 3.80 No

We all see him pitching a full season and 10 of the 11 of us see him surrendering fewer homers than a season ago. There’s a bigger disagreement among the panel as to deGrom’s ERA, with Dalton thinking he’ll give a sparkling 2.34 mark while Mike W. forecasts a 3.70 mark. Our wild card question was if he gets back to the All-Star game and eight of our contributors say yes.

Here is our group forecast:

We see deGrom giving the same quantity he did last year with even better quality. One thing that I like how it worked out is that we have his ERA and FIP being nearly identical. In his career, deGrom has a 2.98 ERA and a 3.07 FIP. Now, let’s check in with the computer models to see how optimistic our forecast is:

Innings ERA K’s BB HR FIP
Marcel 175 3.50 190 51 22 3.47
Mets360 199 3.11 213 50 21 3.12
Steamer 203 3.44 226 57 24 3.50
ZiPS 181.3 3.37 191 48 20 3.26

ZiPS has him throwing slightly more innings than we do but the other two systems have him below our projected total. All three systems see his ERA and FIP noticeably higher than ours. But this seems like a solid forecast from the group, assuming he can make 30-plus starts this season.

Check back this weekend for the next entry in our projection series.

3 comments for “Mets360 2018 projections: Jacob deGrom

  1. February 15, 2018 at 1:21 pm

    I’m bullish on both deGrom and Syndergaard this year.

  2. Chris F
    February 15, 2018 at 1:33 pm

    shouldnt the big picture say 2017 and 2018? I may be confused.

    • February 15, 2018 at 6:30 pm

      No, you were correct. Mike K. has updated the graphic. Thanks!

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