Each year with the predictions column I start by going back to the previous year’s piece. The goal is to get more than 50 percent right, while not making boring predictions. Not once in all of the years of doing this have more turned out right than wrong. Out of last year’s batch, only four were correct.
But you can’t be afraid to be wrong. No one wants to read a bunch of predictions like “the Mets will have a guy come down with a season-ending injury.” So here are a group of predictions that will range from head tilting to eyebrow-raising to outright aggressive. But these are all things I believe will happen, not ones made simply to be controversial.
1. Speaking of the DL, Travis d’Arnaud will not land there once this year.
2. Adrian Gonzalez will be cut/long-term DL before June 1.
3. Amed Rosario posts an OPS 100 points higher than last year’s mark.
4. Todd Frazier finishes with 20 more RBIs than last year.
5. Despite coming back in April, Michael Conforto plays fewer than 125 games.
6. Yoenis Cespedes sets a career-high in home runs.
7. A super-low HR rate will allow Noah Syndergaard to post the best FIP in the majors.
8. For the third time in four years, Jacob deGrom will set a career-best in IP.
9. Matt Harvey finishes in the top 20 in the NL in ERA.
10. Signed to be an innings eater, Jason Vargas makes fewer than 20 starts.
11. For the first time since 1986, the Mets will have two relievers with 20 Saves.
12. Dominic Smith posts a BABIP 75 points higher than last year.
13. Jose Reyes tops 300 PA.
14. After giving up the third-most BB of any pitching staff in the NL last year, the Mets finish with one of the five lowest marks in 2018.
15. The Mets will have a winning record against the Nationals.