May was a brutal month for the Mets, losing games in heart breaking fashion, players to injury, and their place in the standings. But we’re still alive and kicking heading into June. The schedule makers have done us no favors as June includes series This is a make or break month. Will we be smiling at the end of it?

20 comments on “Friday open thread – 6/1/18

  • Pete

    As June include series….with? Incomplete thought Matt. Unless key players on the DL come back soon for the Mets I only see upside down smiles at the end of the month. Washington is playing better and gets Murphy back soon. I don’t see Atlanta or Philadelphia fading at this time. We’ll see. Have to play the games.

    • MattyMets

      Pete- my post got chopped off. Weird. My point was that we face 5 of the 2017 NL playoff teams this month.

  • Mike Walczak

    Suddenly, we are in a very tough division. Too many injuries, too many questions makes it feel like it going to be a long season.

  • Eraff

    Whatever we think of the Roster Sandy constructed, it has not been on the field.

    The Mets approach has been to build a competitive roster that could be augmented with June/July Deals. Most MLB teams will take an approach to trade into a Pennant race, or trade into an addition of talent/next season.

    The outfield rotation, playing at 90% of their baseball cards for the balance of the season would go a long way toward clarifying the forecast for this team.

    This remains about Pitching, and a very definitive 2-3 turn Rotation stretch in June. We know that they are not out of the season Mathematically—almost nobody is! They need to demonstrate a reason to believe they can compete talent wise before the Math condemns their chances.

  • Brian Joura

    Brandon Nimmo, with 144 PA, does not qualify for the FanGraphs leaderboards. But if we include everyone with at least 120 PA, here is how Nimmo ranks among NL Outfielders:

    wRC+ (179) – First
    wOBA (.429) – First
    WAR (1.9) – Fourth

    If he can be as productive in June as he’s been the first two months of the season — far from a sure thing — he should be in the discussion for the All-Star team.

    Now, as we’ve seen with deGrom the past two years, just because you deserve to be on the AS team doesn’t mean you’re going to get picked. But it’s just kind of remarkable what he’s doing and where he’s at here at the end of May.

    • Name

      Meanwhile, among all players with 70+ PA, here is how Reyes ranks.

      wRC (14) – 344th out of 350
      WAR (-0.6) – 339th out of 350

      He somehow followed up a really bad .470 OPS month of April with an even worse .353 OPS month of May.

    • Pete In Iowa

      Nimmo is rapidly becoming — if he is not already — the best player on the team. The only small crack I can see at this point is that he needs to work on his throwing.
      An easy guy to like and root for as he plays the game the right way and with the joy of a child. Refreshing and I’m super happy he’s a Met. We could certainly use another player or two just like him.

      • Chris F

        I have certainly come around on Nimmo and happy to see him get a chance to be an every day player.

        However he needs to be better on defense all around. The throwing stands out because its particularly bad.

  • Pete In Iowa

    When it’s time for Cespedes to return, Bruce riding the pine is the only reasonable option.
    He certainly is not as good as Cepedes, Conforto and Nimmo in the outfield and for those who think he should be shifted to first, there is little doubt that Gonzalez is not only a far, far superior fielder, but right now, he is also a significantly better hitter.
    At this point, I see Bruce as nothing more than a backup corner outfielder and a spot starter at first. He simply has no power (for whatever reason — age?, slump?, injury?) and it seems all he does is either fly out or whiff every time he bats. He’s been shaky in the field as well.
    BTW, thank goodness we picked up Gonzalez as we simply do not have any other option at first as productive as he has been on both sides of the ball. To this point, I’d say he’s most definitely been a good pickup.

  • Jennifer C

    “Now, as we’ve seen with deGrom the past two years, just because you deserve to be on the AS team doesn’t mean you’re going to get picked.”

    What sucks about the All-Star pick is it is based on the first half, maybe even less depending on when voting takes place. On the whole of 2017, deGrom should’ve been the All-Star pick, but at the time in May/June, he had back to back shellackings then went on a 8 game win run. Let’s put it like this, Vargas made last year’s All-Star team because he was great in first half then sucked in the 2nd half.

    • Brian Joura

      Last year at the break, deGrom was 9-3 with a 3.65 ERA, a 1.216 WHIP and a 3.42 K/BB ratio.

      Carlos Martinez was 6-8 with a 3.40 ERA, a 1.160 WHIP and a 2.84 K/BB ratio and in his last two starts gave up 10 ER in 10 IP. But even if you think Martinez deserved it more than deGrom, he still got foffed by the automatic selections for the Padres (Hand) and Phillies (Neshek).

      • Jennifer C

        That’s the downside of every team gets one. deGrom had to be over the top awesome in first half to make it over Conforto I guess. It still stung though, deGrom is clearly an elite pitcher that should be in your All-Star game. Take fairness out and go with the best! Not every team deserves a pick. Think about the AL Central this year getting a pick for each team, while Yankee all -stars are sitting at home.

      • name

        All star rosters last year were announced on July 2nd, which means that the manager likely picked the pitchers by June 30th.

        At that point Martinez was almost a full run better with a 2.88 ERA in 106.1 IP compared to deGrom’s 3.55 ERA in 104 IP

        • Brian Joura

          Through the end of June, deGrom had a better xFIP than Martinez, Strasburg and Ray. And you can say that no one makes their AS decisions based on xFIP but deGrom had more Wins than Martinez and Ray and was tied with Strasburg.

          • name

            For SP, the likelihood of being picked is most heavily weighted towards ERA, then strikeouts, and wins is probably the 3rd factor.

            As a side note, FIP and xFIP should only be used for forecasting purposes, not for evaluating past performance.

            • Brian Joura

              If ERA was the main criteria then Gio Gonzalez, Mike Leake, Ivan Nova, Jimmy Nelson and Dan Straily would like a recount.

              If actual results are the only thing that matter – then that statement is true. But if you want to look at quality of pitching performance, I would certainly use them. Gonzalez had the third best ERA in the NL at the end of June but I don’t think anyone was saying he should have made the AS team ahead of Strasburg as the latter had pitched much better.

              • name

                So the complicating thing is that players get to vote too, but i can’t find who made it in via that way vs MLB selection. I would guess that the players primary criteria is ERA, and most likely they vote even earlier than the June 30th date i mentioned, which would further lower deGrom’s case.

                And then of course the ‘every team must be represented rule’ rules the roost, so the number of unrestricted selections is probably extremely limited to maybe 1 or 2?

  • Brian Joura

    Last 4 games:

    SP – 18 IP, 2 ER
    RP – 17.1 IP, 15 ER

    And the two runs allowed by the starters were inherited runners that the bullpen allowed to score

    Callaway has to demand more from the starters. I know Wheeler was up against the 100-pitch bogeyman last night but Callaway was too eager to remove him at the first sign of trouble to go to a pen that brings gasoline to put out the fire.

    • MattyMets

      Brian – on the one hand, you can question Callaway’s quick hook and his bullpen choices, but he’s not to blame for the putrid performances from Blevins, Ramos, Robles and lately Familia and Sewald. Or that Swarzak has missed two months for what seemed like a minor muscle strain. Or that not one of those relievers we traded for last year has amounted to anything yet.

      • Brian Joura

        I think it’s understood that most relievers do better when they get to come on with a clean inning. What would last night have looked like if Wheeler finished the seventh and Sewald came on for the start of his appearance with a clean 8th inning instead of high-stress pitches right away? At this point, I’d rather see a SP who’s been cruising be allowed to work out of a jam than calling on any reliever besides Gsellman, now that Lugo is at least temporarily in the rotation.

        The pitchers have to perform better when they have the ball. But the manager should put them in better situations. He’s got to know that his bullpen is fried and unreliable and not look for the first excuse to put them in the game.

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