Monday catch-all thread (9/17/18)

Since August 13, Amed Rosario has a .328/.353/.527 line in 136 PA. Yes, the hits are falling in, as he has a .369 BABIP. But he also has a .199 ISO, thanks to 14 XBH, including 5 HR. You’d like to see more walks (4) but he has improved with identifying pitches in the zone, as he has a 16.9 K% in this span.

If we expand the sample to look at splits by half, we find:

1st half – .668 OPS, 20.8 K% in 307 PA
2nd half – .726 OPS, 17.7 K% in 226 PA

It hasn’t happened as quickly as we want, but we’ve seen an improved player here in the second half, especially since mid-August.

13 comments for “Monday catch-all thread (9/17/18)

  1. Mike Walczak
    September 17, 2018 at 10:26 am

    I think Rosario will continue to develop. I just don’t like him as a leadoff hitter. Number seven slot next year would be much better.

    • David Groveman
      September 17, 2018 at 11:53 am

      I agree he doesn’t fit the mold of a #1 but I could see him as a useful #2 hitter.

  2. TJ
    September 17, 2018 at 11:47 am

    While baseball is a team sport, I see Rosario as the key to whether the Mets should rebuild or whether they can compete in 2019-2020. They are a tremendously different team with a speedily lead off hitter that has some pop a, has a decent OBP, and provides plus D at SS. A well-rounded all-starish Rosario changes the lineup and defense dramatically. And if McNeil is legit and Gimenez graduates, they are no longer a slow plodding team.

  3. Name
    September 17, 2018 at 12:07 pm

    If we look at team splits by half

    1st half: 685 OPS, 22.8 k%
    2nd half: 739 OPS, 21.5 k%

    Both halves his OPS remained ~15 points below team average so I’d argue Rosario didn’t improve at all, but rather the team faced worse pitching (and had better warmer weather) in the 2nd half, giving the illusion that the hitters “improved”

    • September 17, 2018 at 1:13 pm

      Interesting post.

      I think it needs to go even further and take Rosario’s numbers out of the team numbers. Won’t change it to a great deal but it will move the needle a bit.

      Including Rosario with the team, he had 97.5% of the first half OPS and 98.2% of the second half. In K%, it’s 91.2% in the first half and 82.3% in the second half.

      If for the sake of argument we grant that worse pitching/warmer weather is the reason for both the team improvement and Rosario’s improvement – it still doesn’t explain Rosario’s numbers from mid-August on, which are substantially above the overall team numbers of the second half.

      In the last 28 days, the Mets have a team OPS of .727 while Rosario has an .823 OPS over the same span. And Rosario’s hot hitting extends a few games longer than 28 days – but that’s the split that B-R readily has available.

      • September 17, 2018 at 1:21 pm

        Okay, since August 13, the Mets have a .259/.324/.446 line for a .770 OPS. In that same span, Rosario has a .328/.353/.527 line for an .880 OPS.

        It’s just 136 PA for Rosario so you can dismiss it as a small sample thing. But you cannot say that his improved hitting in that time frame just mirrors the team’s improvement.

  4. Metsense
    September 17, 2018 at 12:25 pm

    Matt, you know that I have always said Rosario is a mirror image of Reyes in his first years as a met. I think he is developing just like I expected. I also don’t think he is a leadoff batter. Nimmo is the Prototype and McNeil is a very good 2 spot. Rosario should be a 7 spot and therefore next year in early 2019 Lagares will be the 8 spot. That should be plenty of speed at the back of the batting order where it will generate more runs. Just read “The Book” by Tom Tango. Callaway already said though that he likes Rosario as a leadoff batter and doesn’t care what that fool on the blog thinks. Oh well.
    TJ, don’t get me wrong, I am bullish on Rosario but Rosario does not have a good on-base percentage nor is he defensively a plus. I actually see Rosario moving to second base in the summer if Gimenez keeps up his Fast Track to the majors. McNeil will move over to Third Base. At that point Frasier will get his reps as a bench player which won’t be a problem for him because Callaway unlike TC rests his players.
    The 2019 team is going to be a Division champion as long as the starting pitching stays healthy and the Wilpons pony up for a set up man and a closer.

    • Chris F
      September 18, 2018 at 12:58 pm

      Metsense, I completely agree with you.

  5. TexasGusCC
    September 17, 2018 at 2:48 pm

    From last night’s MLBTR:

    “Mets hitter Jay Bruce apparently wants his “audition” with the Mets late this year to “mean something”, per a report from Mike Puma of the New York Post. Taken in context, it’s quite a turnaround to hear such words about a player who less than a year ago was signed to a three-year, $39MM deal in hopes that he’d be a difference-maker for the Amazins. But an unfortunate fall from grace this year has seen the once-proud slugger struggle to a .221/.300/.373 batting line with just 8 homers while bouncing between the outfield and first base in Queens. Bruce hopes his recent power surge since being activated from the disabled list has dispelled any notion that the Mets “goofed” by signing him. Furthermore, the fact that they’ve given him significant time at first base might hint that he could have a leg up on former top prospect Dominic Smith for the starting first base job in 2019.”

    ———————-
    What is this guy’s problem all the time? Does he not have enough confiedence in himself that he always wants guarantees? Jay, how about working your ass off and not worrying about where they will put the rookie? You suck in right did anyway, my proposal has you in the American League or left field in 2019.

  6. Eraff
    September 17, 2018 at 5:04 pm

    My prediction was for Rosario to survive at a 660 OPS to start…with swoons and surges and a finish at 680 or so. He’s now at a 693 ops—if the Season ended today, I’d call it a decent begining and I’d take inventory on the things he needs to add.

    He’s hitting better…being in a better lineup certainly helps, and they’ve been healthier and deeper over the past 50 games or so.

    I believe he can field his position, and He has considerable “buried pop”, offensively.

    This is what a very talented 22 year old skill position player looks like in his first go round. It looks better to Me than it does to many of You, apparently.

  7. September 18, 2018 at 11:32 am

    Podcast version of my Sunday column – http://cast.rocks/hosting/13288/September-Week-3.mp3

  8. September 18, 2018 at 12:38 pm

    New Statcast defensive metric – directional outs

    https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/directional_outs_above_average?year=2018&min=25&team=NYM

    Michael Conforto is not good going straight back on a ball.

  9. September 20, 2018 at 12:22 pm

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