25 comments for “Monday catch-all thread (10/8/18)

  1. Chris F
    October 8, 2018 at 8:34 am

    Dont forget the arb salaries!

    • October 8, 2018 at 9:15 am

      For an Oct. 8 Open Thread, it’s my thought we should concentrate first on the known, rather than the unknown. Why debate the relative worth of TDA or Flores’ potential arb salaries when we don’t even know if they will be tendered a contract?

      • Chris F
        October 8, 2018 at 9:19 am

        I was thinking more about deGrom! He’s not gonna be cheap with a CY award.

        Im not worried about Flores or TdA!!

        Its not clear any of that group will earn their salary. Maybe Wright?

        • October 8, 2018 at 9:47 am

          JDG will still be at a below-market salary. It’s very difficult to imagine a healthy deGrom not being worth whatever he gets in 2019. Even if deGrom loses half his value – he’ll still be worth more than the highest arbitration award ever given by a significant amount.

  2. TexasGusCC
    October 8, 2018 at 10:39 am

    Lagares! He’s due to stay healthy.

  3. TJ
    October 8, 2018 at 10:56 am

    The Wright money doesn’t belong on this list, regardless of whatever accounting method Jeffry tries to sell the fan base.

    I’m sure they’d like to get out of most if not all of these deals, but I see a reasonable shot that collectively, with the exception of Cespedes, they can generate a WAR that equates to the spending.

    I think the bottom line is that there is plenty of payroll available to address the needs.

    • Chris F
      October 8, 2018 at 11:11 am

      Guaranteed contracts are at 92.5M$. Add the 9 arb contracts (even considering a non tender like Flores) and you have to go up 15M$. So we are near 108M$. With an expectation of about 140M$ for payroll, I see 30-35M$ available…Im not sure where that equates to “plenty of payroll” TJ.

      Now, the point of Brian’s article, and I apologize for missing it, is which of the guaranteed’s will live up to their salaries. I think thats hard to call. I think its probably Bruce then Vargas.

      • TexasGusCC
        October 8, 2018 at 2:49 pm

        Chris, what if: McNeil comes down to earth or even worse, succumbs to his injury history. Your other legit second base option is Flores, in his pre-Nationals year. Let’s say he goes for a .275/.345/.460. Are you resigning?

        • Chris F
          October 8, 2018 at 2:49 pm

          Nope. I let Flores walk. If you dont believe in McNeil (and really, Im not sure I do), I go out and get a major leaguer by trade or FA. McNeil and TJ can handle back up duties anywhere on the IF but 1B. I have zero appetite to pay Flores 5M$ to pick splinters out of his back side.

          • Metsense
            October 8, 2018 at 3:38 pm

            Why would you sit and replace at .852 OPS, 2.4 bWAR second baseman who is at minimum salary? There are better candidates to replace. Of course McNeil probably will regress but I can see him still top a 2.0 bWAR over the course of a season. Hopefully he will be at least a 3.0 bWAR.

            • Chris F
              October 8, 2018 at 3:50 pm

              McNeil is a super feel good story. I loved all I saw. Here comes a guy from almost nowhere, hits the bigs and throws up >2 bWAR in 60something games. However, at the same time hes doing this with a .370 BABIP. My inclination is that when he drops to a more sustainable .300 the results will look glaring. It is possible that wont happen? sure, and it would be awesome, but Im not holding my breath for it. Im guessing hes more a 1-2 bWAR player.

              • October 8, 2018 at 5:24 pm

                I’m being a bit bearish on McNeil because of that issue, too. But one thing that we have to keep in mind is that McNeil put up those numbers in roughly 35-40% of a full season. He could fall from 2018’s numbers and still be an above-average player by WAR with a full season’s worth of playing time.

      • TJ
        October 8, 2018 at 3:05 pm

        Chris,
        $92.5 is at most $81.25. Wright is done, Mets recoup $11.25 regardless of what piggy bank Jeffry puts it in. Likely there is more offset from Cespedes policy, but let’s pass on that. Add your arb monies and they are around $100 mil. So, I’m not sure where the $140 budget comes from, so I’m going to put it at $160 mil. I know, I know, it’s the Wilpons, but that still will place them somewhere around 12-15th in payroll sobI like the number.

        So, I say the new GM has $60 mil in 2019 payroll to get a closer, starting catcher, and two additional quality back end bullpen arms. That is doable, and if they can perhaps move Bruce they may have a few more bucks. Now, that really only works if they figure the addition of a bat at C combined with Alonso, Gimenez, Lagares, and some later season Cespedes will provide enough offense. I’m not sure how likely this is, but I certainly hope they are asking GM candidates how feasible this type of plan is.

        • Chris F
          October 8, 2018 at 4:01 pm

          TJ, it was made clear in some interview that ownership is not plowing the insurance money on any contract into new signings. The cost on the DW and Ces policies must be hefty. The Mets have not had an opening day payroll of 160M$ that Im aware of and certainly not in any recent memory. I prefer to be more conservative with finances, as that has been the rule. I could go to 150M$ but, dont see any chance the insurance money is reinvested. Wilpons said that was money spent, and so it is. Id inch up space to 40M$ for a new GM, but Id be shocked it there was 60M$ to play with.

          • October 8, 2018 at 5:07 pm

            METS PAYROLLS
            Year 25-man Opening Day 40-man Year End (rank)
            2018 $150,558,844 $ ()
            2017 $154,437,460 $164,660,792 (15)
            2016 $135,188,085 $156,801,072 (15)
            2015 $101,344,283 $109,779,018 (19)
            2014 $ 84,951,365 $ 92,856,260 (21)
            2013 $ 93,684,590 $ 95,128,685 (17)
            2012 $ 94,508,822 $103,710,802 (11)
            2011 $142,797,166 $142,244,744 (5)
            2010 $126,498,096 $127,560,042 (6)
            2009 $149,373,987 $142,229,759 (2)
            2008 $137,793,376 $144,693,962 (3)
            2007 $115,231,663 $120,927,727 (4)
            2006 $101,084,963 $116,571,696 (3)
            2005 $101,305,821 $103,985,823 (3)
            2004 $ 96,660,970 $103,199,231 (4)
            2003 $117,476,429 $116,253,927 (2)
            2002 $ 94,633,593 $ 94,395,575 (6)
            2001 $ 93,674,429 $ 93,125,240 (6)
            2000 $ 79,800,000 $ 82,246,383 (4)

            • TJ
              October 8, 2018 at 6:26 pm

              Exactly. I’d expect the 2019 25 man payroll to be $155-$160 million if they plan to contend. Pretty logical expectation of 4-7% increase.

        • Eraff
          October 9, 2018 at 7:53 am

          I don’t want Jeff asking the new GM to execute Jeff’s Plan…I want a GM with a Great Baseball Plan

  4. Mike Walczak
    October 8, 2018 at 2:17 pm

    What an waste of money. Can we have a do-over?

  5. Metsense
    October 8, 2018 at 3:19 pm

    Does anybody know how much a bWAR is in dollars? I thought I read $6M. So Wright and Cespedes won’t. Frazier 1.9 bWAR make it this year and I can’t seeing him regressing next year. Lagares will get more playing time because of Cespedes’ health. Lagares had a bWAR this year of 1.0 so he only needs 0.5 more. He will do that will his defense. Swarack and Vargas both had bWAR of 0.00 in 2018. They would have to achieve a 1.3 to 1.4 bWAR to earn their salary. I don’t think so.That leaves Bruce and his -0.4 who would need 2.1 bWAR in 2019. He did have a 2.8 bWAR in 2017. The next time in he had a 2.1 plus bWAR was 2013 when he had a 5.1 bWAR. I don’t think he will earn his salary. It does look like the Mets have some slackers on the payroll (some due by injury). Alderson signed them all.

    • TexasGusCC
      October 8, 2018 at 10:54 pm

      On Fangraphs, they value 1.0 WAR at just short of $9MM.

      • Name
        October 9, 2018 at 1:03 am

        “Value” is really a misnomer. What they are really calculating is ‘Average historical cost’ for Free Agents. And that value just shows you how inefficient the FA market is, which is why teams finally shied away this past offseason.

        If you want the true average historical cost for all players, it’s quite simple. Find the total MLB payroll. I used this website https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/

        If you use the ‘Total Payroll’ number, it adds up to around 4.175 billion, divide that by 1000 WAR and you get an average cost of 4.175 mil per WAR.

        • Metsense
          October 9, 2018 at 8:19 am

          Name, that is the most realistic number I’ve read about. Did you eliminate the minimum salaries of minimum players. Nice concept, thanks.

  6. Eraff
    October 8, 2018 at 5:35 pm

    Mets and Analytics/Front Office Talent

    My Son’s 29 year old friend (His College Buddy) is a Finance Analytics guy with a love for Baseball Analytics…. wants to make the switch from Finance to Sports/Baseball.

    Watching the Yanks versus Boston, He tells me that He got a Whiff of a Job with the Red Sox, Paying $110,000….Not strict entry level intern stuff…a Good shot for a forward looking Baseball Stat Nut.

    He tells Me the Mets had a similar position—$60,000.

  7. Eraff
    October 8, 2018 at 5:48 pm

    On McNeil, a Regression to a 310-320 babip brings him to a low/mid 700 ops….some opportunity to add power. If they go to 2019 with him and another young Infielder( Cheech?…TJ???), they’d be a helluva lot better than this year’s plan of Reyes plus Flores. Maybe one of them grabs an Outfield Mitt and a 1b glove and makes himself a nice Super Utility Guy. They have a Shot at a Major League Bench…they’ve needed one.

    I’d sign a RH OF Bat…maybe a Mid IF’er.

    I would not tender Flores or d’Arnaud.

    I believe they should sign Machado if possible…he’s a wonderful fit (for any team).

  8. TexasGusCC
    October 11, 2018 at 1:49 am

    Tonight I was flipping through 200 channels and nothing was on, but when I got to MLBN, Intentional Talk was on. Although I like Chris Rose, Millar just annoys the heck out of me. However, before I could change the channel, Rose asked Millar what he thinks the Yankees will do now. Millar says, “you may think this is nuts, but I see Paul Goldschmidt going there.” Eh? Ok… I know he’s a free agent after next year…

    So, now it’s Rose’s turn and he says “I see Machado, and not for third base but SS. Gregorious is my favorite Yankee, but he’s in the last year of his deal and Machado is a step up.” Wow, that’s how the Yankees roll.

    I wish the Mets played in a big market like the Bronx. In the meantime, we have a three person analytics department while they have 30 and the Mets are looking for an old GM while the Yankees are targeting Voit for two years.

    What if the first game my dad took me to was Guidry against Ryan or something like that, instead of Koosman against Forsch? Think of the abuse I’d have avoided and the championships I could have enjoyed…

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

%d bloggers like this: