Monday catch-all thread (11/19/18)

Recently, Matthew Cerrone over at MetsBlog polled some baseball executives and determined that the cost to acquire J.T. Realmuto would be two top 100 guys and another solid prospect. Now we hear from MetsBlog’s Danny Abriano that Noah Syndergaard “will have immense value on the trading block, meaning the Mets would likely be able to acquire a team’s top prospect, another prospect in that team’s top five or so, and more.”

So, how does the Realmuto package compare to the Syndergaard one? Is Realmuto being overvalued? Is Syndergaard being undervalued?

Or would you deal Syndergaard straight up for Realmuto?

28 comments for “Monday catch-all thread (11/19/18)

  1. November 19, 2018 at 8:02 am

    JDG, Wheeler and Thor are untouchable. Just sign a FA C and let’s move on. After the Marlins gave away Yelich why should any team help them now? That trade proposal is insane. Sorry but you don’t give away your 1A stud pitcher.

  2. November 19, 2018 at 8:12 am

    The Marlins are not going to be good any time soon. So why give them Thor? You’re going to need Thor for the playoffs. Are there not other alternatives?

  3. TexasGusCC
    November 19, 2018 at 10:17 am

    On Thor, if it’s not a “Hershell Walker” trade, I’m not making it. Tatis, Mckenzie Gore and Mejia start the conversation. If they won’t do it, then no problem. There’s plenty of top prospects that we’re still waiting for. The Rangers have two of them.

    • November 19, 2018 at 10:02 am

      Gus who do the Marlins have to complete your Walker trade besides Realmuto?

      • TexasGusCC
        November 19, 2018 at 12:27 pm

        Pete, it’s the Padres that are supposedly very motivated to do something, and they better be. Those are the Padres top three prospects.

    • MattyMets
      November 20, 2018 at 1:41 pm

      I’m with Gus. I can see a scenario where we trade Thor, but not for two prospects. Unless it’s a Herschel Walker deal as you say, I’m not interested in moving him or JDG. To me, that’s the core of this team right there. Starting pitching is our strength, yes, but I want to bolster that by strengthening the other areas. Imagine what this rotation could do with a good catcher and some run consistent run support?

  4. TexasGusCC
    November 19, 2018 at 10:22 am

    This is a great and fun article about baseball 100 years ago that was impressively researched:
    https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/re-examining-the-chalmers-award/

  5. Chris F
    November 19, 2018 at 12:26 pm

    Syndergaard for Realmuto is an equivalent trade. I wont happen as it makes no sense whatsoever, but the values seem right.

    I think either player gets an excellent haul of 3 players. For the Mets it would need to be 1 or 2 just starting AAA who can impact the team this season and still have control. Miami might want younger star talent and more to insulate potential flops.

    Is it heresy to talk about trading NS? Hardly. Every person can be replaced. The questions is whether one believes a position player at at premium position has as much value as a starter.

    I think fancy starters are easier to come by than generating team defense or team offense. I maintain that focusing on starting pitching and thinking one can fill the gaps with ho-hum position players that only uppercut in the box will produce a team incapable of doing well.

    • TexasGusCC
      November 19, 2018 at 12:31 pm

      +1, except Realmuto has two years’ control and Syndergaard has three years.

    • November 19, 2018 at 1:07 pm

      I appreciate you weighing in that you think they are equivalent.

      I disagree pretty strongly about that. In addition to the extra year of control, the two year age difference is a factor. And finally, Realmuto’s position, which makes this conversation possible, ends up playing against him in the long term. Unless you think he’s going to age better than Buster Posey, Joe Mauer and Jonathan Lucroy.

      • TJ
        November 19, 2018 at 1:22 pm

        For what it’s worth (not much) I agree with Brian on this one.

      • Chris F
        November 19, 2018 at 4:07 pm

        Thats a lot to unwrap. I took the idea of a trade at face value and for the immediate value given the win now posture we are told the Mets have.

        1. Pencil in 500 AB from catcher for Realmuto for 3 years and handling the entire staff.

        2. Realmuto is not an average C build. I think he has a lot to offer.

        3. Upper tier pitchers are available every season like clock work. Catchers most definitely are not. Catchers in the upper tier are worth their weight in gold.

        4. Syndergaard is an injury risk, like it or not. He’s made 30 starts once. He’s never pitched 200 innings. And quite frankly, if he cannot pitch more than at the bottom of the zone the path to stardom is tricky.

        Am I excited to move Noah? no. But the thought of a genuine franchise catcher in play is something that a serious contender would need to consider. It is a position I would overpay for. If you asked about trading Realmuto for Giminez, Alonso, and _________ I’d announce the presser before Jeter hung up the phone.

        • November 19, 2018 at 5:40 pm

          You have Realmuto for 2 years and then he’s eligible for free agency after 2020. How many years are you willing to go on a free agent catcher when the first year is his age 30 season? If Realmuto follows up his strong 2018 with similar seasons in 2019 and 2020 – there’s no way he’s signing a two or three-year deal. In the last five years, there have only been 3 catcher seasons (2014 Russell Martin, 2016 Jonathan Lucroy, 2017 Buster Posey) where a catcher 30 or older put up a 4.0 fWAR season. Here’s what they did the following years:

          Martin – 3.5, 2.0, 1.9, 0.6
          Lucroy – 1.1, 0.6
          Posey – 2.0

          Pitchers are 10X more likely to continue to put up strong numbers on a consistent basis after they turn 30 than catchers are. There’s only one catcher since 2000 to accumulate 30 fWAR in his 30s (and up) and that’s Jorge Posada with his 30.4 mark. There are 10 pitchers, led by Randy Johnson and his 53.1 mark. There are three catchers to accumulate 20 fWAR (Posada, Rodriguez, Ruiz) and there are 28 pitchers.

          Trading for Realmuto is a last piece of the puzzle, short-term move. If you get him, you’ve got to be prepared to let him walk once he becomes a free agent. The risk of getting left holding the bag post 2020 is just too big.

          I acknowledge Syndergaard’s injury concerns. I don’t think they’re in the same ballpark as the concerns about Realmuto’s production post 2020, which are at least partially injury-related.

      • Eraff
        November 20, 2018 at 4:37 am

        I agree…. 2 years ago the collective Mets-Verse was clamoring for Lucroy. A hitting Catcher is Nice—for the short time it lasts

  6. Chris F
    November 19, 2018 at 6:44 pm

    I view OPS+ of 110 or more the next two years for a catcher who handles the whole staff. If you see he’s living the dream, I think you give him 5 years and an opt out. The question is Realmuto in the Perez, Posey, Molina category. I don’t know, but he clearly is a huge step up from the junk we keep rolling out there. I know you see it differently, thats fine. Ill take every bit of Realmuto including the 38% CS over the <25% we have in house. I understand you don't see value in holding runners. I do. On that we will never agree.

    On the flip side top level pitching talent is virtually always available. Its a commodity to be had and sure pay a lot, but the fact is that its there. That is not the same with catcher. Syndergaard could be replaced in a heartbeat. Im not proposing that trade as it makes no sense.

    We see baseball differently. Im ok with that.

    • November 19, 2018 at 7:03 pm

      Has there ever been an opt out from the team’s POV? The only ones I can remember are from the player’s POV. I mean, I guess there’s no harm in giving a catcher an opt out in his 30s – you hope he takes it.

      I have no doubt that he’s an upgrade from what we have. I’m not willing to pay the price for this particular upgrade. Not willing to pay the apparent price to get him while he’s still under team control and absolutely not willing to pay for his free agent years.

      As for the CS issue, the discussions we’ve had – at least from my POV – are limited to Syndergaard. Last year when all of the people were up in arms about the steals against Syndergaard, the results didn’t justify the outrage. If teams run wild against Syndergaard again this year and the results are different — then I’ll change my tune. But generally speaking, there are enough real problems to deal with first before worrying about something that might turn into a problem.

      I know in the past that Matz has been as easy to run against as Syndergaard. I don’t know if his results after the steals were markedly different from Syndergaard’s. It’s certainly possible and if so, would make a more defensive-minded catcher worthwhile. But before we start courting Jeff Mathis or Martin Maldonado, let’s see if it makes sense in reality as well as theory.

      • Name
        November 19, 2018 at 9:18 pm

        “Has there ever been an opt out from the team’s POV?”

        They’ve been around forever and are the oldest trick in the book… Team options

        • November 19, 2018 at 9:54 pm

          Yeah, I suppose that’s true.

          Guess I was thinking more in terms of a mega contract where the team, rather than the player, can opt out. Clayton Kershaw had an opt out for the player. What if the Diamondbacks had an opt out for Zack Greinke?

          • Name
            November 20, 2018 at 12:41 am

            The biggest example of a “mega contract” team opt out is Jake Arrieta and the Phillies.

            Contracts are reported in terms of the player’s pov, so that’s why we report it as a 3 year / 75 mil deal because that’s the absolute minimum Arrieta is guaranteed, but the Phillies have an option for 2 more years and 40 mil. They can opt out by choosing not to exercise the option. So from the Phillies pov, the contract is a 5 year / 115 mil deal with an opt out after year 3.

          • Name
            November 20, 2018 at 1:09 am

            Just wanted to clarify the Phillies opt out on Arreita – it’s more complicated because Arrieta has his own option as well, but the final decision resides with the Phillies either way.

            If Arrieta opts out after year 2, the Phillies have the option of paying him another 3 years / 60 mil or opting out.

            If Arrieta doesn’t opt out after year 2, the Phillies still have the option of paying him another 3 years / 60 mil or opting out of the final 2 years and only paying him 1 year / 20 mil.

            Players who reach FA generally want to control their own future and not give the power to the team, which is why you usually don’t see mega contracts where there team has the opt out.

            • November 20, 2018 at 8:19 am

              Yes, this is what I was thinking and it was certainly recent enough that I should have remembered it.

              It’s usually that the player has enough options that he doesn’t have to give this type of power to the team. Wonder if this will be a one-time thing or if this is the start of a trend.

              • Name
                November 20, 2018 at 10:38 am

                It’s almost always Boras who has to resort to these “creative” solutions to try to save face for his clients when his plan of holding out for the more money fails.

                We saw it with Arrieta, as well as Scherzer and his not really 210 mil contract as well as Matt Wieters deferring a lot of money.

  7. Mike Walczak
    November 19, 2018 at 9:07 pm

    I am really tired of hearing about Realmuto. His big year was last year where he hit 21 HR and drove in 74 runs. He is a .270 hitter with a .330 OBP. Compare him to Carter, Bench, Irod, Piazza, Posey, Molina, Posada, etc… He just happens to be one of the better players at a currently weak position.

    Wilson Ramos had 15 HR and 70 RBI’s. There is no way I would trade Syndergaard for Realmuto. Just sign Ramos or Grandal and move on. Or, as it was stated, be overwhelmed by an offer like the three San Diego players.

    The Yankees could have matched up, but they just traded Sheffield to land Paxton. You have to give Hal credit. He is like his old man and is decisive and makes moves. Pretty much while the Mets are on the sidelines with their hands in their pockets. Let’s go Brodie, let’s get the show on the road.

  8. TexasGusCC
    November 20, 2018 at 1:04 am

    I found another article, that is just ridiculously full of info with stats to show who good, or not good, each Mets pitcher was. If this was a Facebook, I’d tag Name. This would be the equivalent of throwing him a belt high fastball.

    https://risingapple.com/2018/11/13/mets-jacob-degrom-pitch/

  9. Eraff
    November 20, 2018 at 10:50 am

    How do we make sense of the idea that the Mets want to extend deGrom, while trading Thor for Prospects…. it makes no sense.

    If Thor goes, it must be for a big time offensive need— an offensive player at His Level…a Guy already in the Major Leagues.

    Dad was a Dodger Fan…Brooklyn…that’s how I got here…Oy!!!!

    • TexasGusCC
      November 20, 2018 at 12:00 pm

      Mine too Eraff, but my best friend was a Mets fan… However, I saw many Vic Damarillo PH appearances…

    • Chris F
      November 20, 2018 at 3:05 pm

      The fact that the team has to sell the fine china to buy silver forks knives and spoons should tell you how imbalanced the team is.

      • TJ
        November 20, 2018 at 9:32 pm

        Chris,
        Listening on Noah is not selling fine china to buy silver utensils, at least not yet. From my semi-uniformed point of view, the Yanks got Paxton on the cheap. I think a Syndergaard trade is very improbable, but the Astros or Cubs could put something on the table that would be very tempting. That something would need to be a quality everyday player with years of control and a high quality pitching prospect, nothing less.

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