Rumors are swirling about a potential Steven Matz trade, with the idea that the Yankees are among those interested in the Mets’ lefty. It seems pretty unlikely to me that the Mets would deal Matz, or any starting pitcher, during Spring Training or before the trade deadline. The Mets are in the enviable position of having six average or better MLB starters at their disposal and why squander that edge?

But perhaps even more importantly than that – What would opposing teams realistically give up for Matz today that would prompt the Mets to actually pull the trigger?

Speculation is that the Mets want a major league ready piece for Matz. The one name we’ve heard is Yankees third baseman Miguel Andjuar, who was hurt a good part of last year but was extremely good in 2018, when he put up an .855 OPS in 606 PA, which helped the 23 year old finish second in the Rookie of the Year balloting.

Andujar is certainly a desirable piece. And it’s far from clear that the Yankees would be willing to move him. But Gio Urshela filled in quite nicely for Andujar last year and the now 28 year old could do so again, at least in the short-to-intermediate term. It makes theoretical sense for the Yankees to do it, if they view Matz as being able to give more than just a short-term replacement arm.

But what about the Mets? If they got Andujar, then he becomes the team’s third baseman, Jeff McNeil moves from third to left field and then both J.D. Davis and Yoenis Cespedes are on the bench. This also leaves the Mets with six outfielders – assuming Cespedes is ready to be on the Opening Day roster – and pretty much forces the Mets to carry a six-man bench, rather than a 13-man relief staff.

Now, a six-man bench is what they should do, anyway. But the team has given no indication that this is what they want or plan to do. A standard five-man bench has a backup catcher, backup corner infielder, backup middle infielder and two outfielders. If Jed Lowrie is ready to start the year, it only complicates things more. It was going to be a risk to carry Lowrie as the backup middle infielder last year. Can the Mets really consider him a reliable backup SS option at age 36 with the biggest knee brace ever seen on a pro ballplayer?

And is Andujar and his .855 OPS in 2018 – thanks to a .913 mark in Yankee Stadium – enough to push J.D. Davis and his .895 OPS in 2019 to the bench? Andujar is younger and has a better defensive reputation. But what’s he going to hit in Citi Field? The Mets’ home park certainly isn’t favorable with most hitters to the degree that Yankee Stadium is. And Davis thrived there last year. Finally, Andujar doesn’t offer any position flexibility, either. He spent his entire minor league career at 3B, not playing a single game in the field elsewhere. Ditto for his time in the majors.

Brodie Van Wagenen has yet to make a trade for prospects. If the Mets hold firm with wanting a major league piece in return for Matz – what area would make the most sense?

Clearly, it’s not first base. A neutral observer would point to second base but we know that’s not happening. Third base is a real tough sell. One could make an argument for shortstop but that’s the deepest position in the farm system. And we’ve already noted the potential surplus in the outfield. So that leaves catcher.

Wilson Ramos had a good year with the bat but his defense isn’t very good. Among catchers with at least 300 PA last year, Ramos ranked tied for 15th with a 1.4 fWAR. But who on the list of names ahead of him would a team actually trade for Matz? You’re certainly not getting J.T. Realmuto for him. One name that has to at least make you go “hmmm” is Gary Sanchez, who put up a 2.3 fWAR in 106 games last year. But with longtime backup Austin Romine now with the Tigers, the Yankees don’t have the catching depth that they had previously.

If a team is looking to acquire Matz, they don’t have SP to trade. So, the best chance of a deal for MLB talent seems to be the bullpen. What’s an average starter like Matz worth as a reliever? It would have to be someone above average in the pen. Sticking with the Yankees – which side would say no to a Matz for Zack Britton deal?

Acquiring a reliever would force the Mets to either go with a 13-man pen or make a move like optioning Robert Gsellman to the minors. Nothing wrong with that from a performance point of view but – again – this is not something the Mets have displayed any willingness to do.

Trading Matz might be the smart thing to do. But if the Mets are going to insist on getting MLB talent back in return, finding a suitable trade partner and an acceptable return becomes much, much more difficult. Which is another reason that a Matz trade during Grapefruit League play seems very unlikely.

17 comments on “The difficulties in making a Steven Matz deal now

  • Larry Smith

    I agree with pretty much the entire article. I do think that the Mets need to find themselves a legit CFer who can both hit (Nimmo can do the hitting part) and field (Marisnick is a great glove and Lagares-ish bat).

    If a team came for Matz and had a good two way CFer to offer – even if it means the Mets add Dom Smith or JD Davis or Lowrie (as a salary dump) to the mix I think the front office should listen and perhaps jump in.

    There’s been talk of the Yankees offering folks like Andujar and Clint Frazier. While I feel both are quality bats they would only further ruin a bad Mets defense.

  • David Groveman

    I like Andujar but getting him onto the team only makes sense if the Mets are getting rid of their Robinson Cano baggage.

    It’s hard to come up with much of a scenario where the Mets are able to shed Cano, bring in Andujar and still make this palatable for the Yankees.

    If the Mets eat half of what they still owe him and toss in a player like Peterson I wonder who the Yankees would offer to balance the deal.

    Steven Matz + Robinson Cano (50% of what he’s owed) + David Peterson

    for

    Miguel Andujar + ???

    Zack Britton and Brett Gardner are the two names I can see there… I take Britton deal in a heartbeat.

    • Brian Joura

      Britton is owed $13 million in 2020 and 2021 with a club option for 2022. But, according to Cot’s, the club must make the determination on the option by the end of the World Series in 2020. If they decline, it would mean that Britton could opt out of his 2021 deal. Plus, there’s a 1 million bonus due him if he’s traded.

      If the Mets pick up half of Cano’s salary – $10 million – that means they would add $4 million in the Cano/Britton half of things this year. But Matz is making $5 million this year. So, we’re looking at essentially a wash of salaries. Mets probably need to pick up more of Cano’s money.

      • David Groveman

        Yankees can also spin this as bringing Cano home to end his career.

  • pete

    I keep seeing Arenados name popping up in possible trade deals.It would solve third base for the Mets for the foreseeable future. Maybe a package which would include McNeil, Cespedes,(Davis or Smith) and 1 or 2 prospects could pry him from the Rockies? Let’s wait on Matz until the season starts. Injuries and the demand might make him more valuable.

    • David Groveman

      No thank you.

      This is not a good deal for the Mets.

      Do people not understand that prospects are valuable?

  • pete

    Wouldn’t it depend on the value of the prospects? What level? BVW wasn’t afraid to trade away Kelenic . Does he qualify as to one of those people who don’t understand about trading prospects away?

    • David Groveman

      Yes he does. That was a terrible trade.

  • pete

    I seem to recall the Mets trading for Johan Santana for a bunch of prospects. How did that trade work out?

    • Bob P

      The difference with Santana vs Cano is that Santana was in his prime when they traded prospects for him while Cano was well past with a terrible contract. Also the Mets didn’t give up a top 15 prospect in MLB for Santana.

      • Pete

        To Bob P. That’s exactly my point. You got the best pitcher in baseball at that time for low level prospects. The Mets didn’t have to give up a stud.Does BVW understand that? Trade for a player in their prime who is consistent and value. Not a cheater who was a client of his. Do you think he didn’t know Cano used PED’S? Arenado takes care of an issue the Mets have always had with the exception of David Wright.

  • pete

    I would think that the Dodgers would be an exception to your rule Dave. Granted they have a deep farm. But they’re constantly trading for top tier players who can put them over the top. I recall Yu Darvish, David Price and this year Mookie Betts. Why not trade for Arenado? The Twins just signed 34 year old Josh Donaldson to a 92 million 4 year deal with a fifth year option. Arenado is 28 plays GG defense and can hit.He gave the Rockies a hometown discount and his 35 million dollar salary for a player in his prime is feasible as Wright;s contract ends this year.

  • Metsense

    Matz is good bait and Andujar would be a nice haul but maybe take a starting pitching prospect instead and expand to deal with Ramos for Sanchez. Also, the Yankees are not the only team that needs starting pitching. Cast the nets.

  • Bob P

    Trading Matz at this point would be putting an awful lot of faith in Porcello and Wacha. I’m not ready to do that now unless it was a great deal for the Mets.

  • Dan Capwell

    I agree with Matz’ comment about this all being “fake news.” The Mets didn’t build up their SP depth over an otherwise inactive winter just to turn around and dismantle it in order to help the Yankees out.

    That being said, Matz for Gary Sanchez is interesting. The salaries wash. It would leave the Yanks without a front-line catcher. Also, what would the Mets do with Ramos?

  • TJ

    Puma may have been told something here, but the probability of a Met-Yankee deal at this time and for Matz is about as low as you can get.

    The Mets still have some soft spots, but barring a tremendous overpay (which almost certainly won’t happen in March), I am a huge proponent of hoarding pitching. The Nationals likely have a better rotation than the Mets, and the Mets need to maintain as much depth as possible.

    Sanchez for Matz? Really? Why not ask for Torres as well.

  • MattyMets

    This trade talk grinds my gears. What happened last year was an outlier. It’s extremely rare for a rotation to stay as healthy as our did last year. Most years the Mets need 8 or 9 starters to get through the year. Of our top six, one is injury prone and another is coming off a bad year. Looking forward, three of them will be free agents at season’s end. Trading Matz would create more problems than it could solve. And with defense our biggest weakness, adding Andujar to play third is a terrible idea. He’s a DH in the making.

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