A lot of people are coming up with trade packages for Francisco Lindor. Yesterday, SNY modeled a trade based on what the Dodgers paid for Mookie Betts. Here’s an fWAR comparison of Betts and Lindor the last five years:

Betts – 3.0, 6.6, 10.4, 5.3, 8.3 = 33.6
Lindor – 1.7, 4.4, 7.6, 5.7, 5.5 = 24.9

It’s important to note that Lindor is over a year younger and plays a tougher position. But we’ve seen Betts be the best player on two teams that won the World Series.

If we multiply Lindor’s 2020 fWAR total by 2.7 we see he played at a 4.6 clip. So, in four of the last five years, his play has been between 4.4 and 5.7 which is really good, but again it’s not as good as Betts. Leaving out his MVP season of 2018, Betts has been between 5.3 and 8.3 in four of the last five years. Betts has three seasons in the last five better than Lindor’s best. When forecasts come out for 2021, we should expect to see Betts be valued somewhere around 2.5 fWAR higher than Lindor.

To be clear, Lindor would be a big upgrade over what the Mets used at SS in 2020. The question is if you want to pay market rate to acquire that upgrade and then pay market rate in salary going forward. Maybe the answer is yes. But it doesn’t seem a slam dunk to me.

15 comments on “Wednesday catch-all thread (11/4/20)

  • Mike W

    If Lindor will only be here for a year. I dont want him. Dont want to give up good assets for a one year player.

  • Bob P

    I’d prefer to save those trade chips to acquire pitching. I don’t know what high end starter may be made available for a trade but given the fact that is seems many teams may be looking to reduce payroll I think we would be better served using whoever we decide to trade to go after pitching.

  • Thomas M Christensen

    This team doesn’t need another SS , they need a catcher and a center fielder plus pitching so forget about Lindnor unless he can pitch as well ?

    • Mike W

      Well said Tom.

  • TexasGusCC

    Buy the pitching, but I wouldn’t give up more than Gimenez or Rosario and say Vientos or Kilome for Lindor. He is a rental, and no one knows what kind of attendance there will be this year, and don’t think teams take that lightly.

    The pitchers are there to be signed… Stroman, Morton, Ray, Walker, Paxton, Tanaka, Lester, Quintana, Kluber, Ordozzi, etc… there’s enough.

  • TJ

    Lindor is a wonderful player, a bona fide star, and would be an upgrade at SS. However, under no circumstances do I want or expect the Mets to trade a bunch of prospects for him, even if they have an extension in place with Lindor ahead of time. Losing those assets is not worth one extra year of a guy that a big market team can outbid others for the following season.

    Add a RH bat and pitching pitching pitching.

  • Chris F

    We need another SS like we need another 1B man. Hmm. We lose depth and trade chips for positions we have huge holes at, namely 3B and CF and C. This would be a classic move of the last ownership group.

    On a side note, the Mets added a host of players today including Mallex Smith – which will certainly make Gus happy!!

    • Rob

      Well said chris. Does not fix anything and i believe if other teams do want him could come up with better package. I like smith signing. He is a good bounce back candidate.

    • Brian Joura

      Ah, Mallex Smith – we haven’t had a Herpes outbreak in awhile – guess we were due.

      Last seen he was putting up a (-0.6) fWAR with his third straight negative value defensive season. Ah, well Syracuse needs players, too. Wonder if they like “name” Quad A guys as much as Buffalo did…

      • José


        Brian, are you saying that Mallex has a STD?

        • Brian Joura

          There are certain players on other teams who get an insane amount of love in the comments section here. One of those is Mallex Smith. Awhile back, I had my fill of the Mallex Smith hype and I dubbed him “Herpes,” as in something that you don’t want but that keeps coming back. Here’s where the term made its debut, in the comments section.


    • TexasGusCC

      Did I hear my name?? I don’t remember being a Mallex Smith cheerleader, but I’ll take the bait. As a minor league signing, how can they go wrong? Too bad BVW totally choked on the Betances contract, but there’s nothing wrong with bringing in some guys that haven’t been good since 2018 and giving them some March at-bats.

      Also, has anyone noticed that five days later, Stroman still hasn’t rejected the QO? Oh, he’s thinking it through all right. He didn’t pitch since 2018 and missed the year due to injury and COVID. Maybe he’s healthy? Maybe he isn’t? In a market where teams are talking 30-40% reduction in their salary expenses, Stroman is going to pass on one year with $18.9MM guaranteed? I doubt it.

      Lastly, did anyone notice Tim Dierkes’ writeup of trade partners for Kris Bryant? He listed the Mets as not needing him and clearly pointed out that Davis’ production across the board was better than Bryant’s. Dierkes is the founder of MLBTR and has contacts in MLB front offices so when he talks, it’s never hogwash.

  • Metsense

    The Mets should upgrade their starting pitching for 2021. It is going to be expensive. Syndergaard will be a free agent in 2022. He will cost money to retain him.
    Lindor is an upgrade from Gimenez. He will cost players and salary.
    Realmuto is an upgrade from Nido. He will cost a draft choice and salary.
    Realmuto is the better choice for the Mets and still take care of the starting pitching.
    The Mets should put the money in starting pitching and catching because it is their primary needs.

  • Bob P

    I want to start by saying that I am thrilled to hear that The Mets deal has closed and we have a new owner today. In reading this news on various Mets sites you can also find articles looking for the Mets to sign Realmuto, sign Bauer, sign Springer, trade for Lindor, trade for Arenado and everything short of using Cohen’s money to pay someone to clone Babe Ruth. If you believe some of the blogs out there the Mets roster will include all of those guys next year (except maybe Ruth). I know I’m exaggerating some (but maybe not all that much) but that seems to be the sentiment.

    I’ve been as frustrated as anyone during the Wilpon era, but I’d really like to see more talk about building from within and then supplementing from the outside with free agents or trades. I do get the sense that Alderson will go down that path but I read a lot of articles and blog posts, and talk to a lot of fellow Mets fans that seem to want to for the quick fix and trade for or sign every high priced player we can fit into Citifield.

    Although the Mets may have deeper pockets, there are still limitations with the luxury tax that are going to be constraints in the future. 5 or 6 years for a 30 year old catcher at $20M plus or taking on a contract of a Rockies star with huge home/road splits doesn’t seem like the right way to build.

    Also, its more enjoyable to root for a largely home grown team than a lineup full of mercenaries.

    I’m glad to have this site which is generally the voice of reason with good debate and not as many of the calls to throw caution to the wind now that we have deep pockets.

    • Brian Joura

      Mostly I agree with this take.

      But right now there’s next to nothing that can be done to build from within. Sure, they could trade deGrom for a bunch of prospects but I can’t imagine that’s the path that anyone wants to take. Maybe you can do it with Alonso but it’s likely his value isn’t as high as it was this time a year ago. Besides, he seems the type to build around.

      You could advocate for signing some of the scouts and front office types that teams like the Cubs have let go. But none of us know who the good ones from that lot are and who would be an improvement over what we have now.

      So the focus is mostly on free agents they can sign to help right now.

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