Steven A Cohen has started off his ownership with a bang. The trade for Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco, plus the signing of James McCann, has significantly improved the Mets overall quality. Lindor is 15-20 runs better defensively than Amed Rosario and a better hitter as well. McCann’s defense is better than the Mets catchers have been, but his bat is a career 0.694 OPS, not nearly up to Wilson Ramos’, so McCann’s ability to frame pitches and work with the pitchers will be critical.
In 2019, the Mets won 86 games, and will need to get closer to 93 wins to make the playoffs in 2021. The moves above will take the Mets up to about 90, leaving a gap of three more wins to feel confident in the postseason. Finding three wins in the free agent market is not easy, and the easiest place was going to be in George Springer. He signed with the Blue Jays, so that is off the table. Springer would have likely added the necessary wins.
No player on the current free agent market that plays center field is better than Brandon Nimmo. Nimmo is a negative in CF, but a positive at the plate. Using a defensive sub for Nimmo late in games – or for the left fielder, where Nimmo slides over from center field, is going to be an absolute must. Unless Cohen/Alderson pull off a trade for Mike Trout or something. The current climate looks as though the Mets are going with the outfield of Dominic Smith, Brandon Nimmo, and Michael Conforto. It is a good outfield, and if Smith continues to blossom, his offense in the lineup every day could add another two wins, but it requires his defense to improve being only slightly below average. Forecasting systems do not like him in left field, and so his overall WAR projections are not impressive.
Another item in the Mets improvement category is simply maturity. Aging curves are in the Mets favor, as they have a lineup hitting their prime. It does not offset the Atlanta lineup doing much of the same, but it does improve well ahead of the Nationals lineup. Those offensive gains are always a plus. Currently, with the above outfield improving by a few wins, Pete Alonso performing as expected, and the addition of Lindor and McCann, only two positions remain unsettled.
Robinson Cano, it bears repeating is suspended for the 2021 season. The leaves Jeff McNeil as the everyday second baseman, and thus J.D. Davis as the everyday third baseman. McNeil can hit and play a passable second base, although he is weak in the double play. It keeps coming back to Davis and his position and defense. His full-season defensive forecasts are positively Jeter-ian.
What are the Mets to do, as Springer is off the board? Rumors have DJ LeMahieu close to re-signing with the New York Yankees. Kolten Wong is vastly underrated. Signing LeMahieu would immediately close the gap, sending McNeil to third, where his defense improves, and he is already a couple of WAR better than Davis. Even signing Wong would improve the Mets by more than three wins because it gets Davis off the field. He is more of a designated hitter than Alonso. Wong is a legit star fielder, winning the last two National League Gold Gloves at second base, and hits enough to make him a starter. He is much better than the patch work group the Mets have tried and those guys are all still free agents as well.
Most importantly, Wong will not allow innings to be extended because he did not turn the double play, and absolute killer for pitching staffs. Note, even having Jason Kipnis play every day at second improves the Mets because of how poor Davis’ glove is.
Why not look for a third baseman? There are not any that would improve the team enough over the current alignment. Both Justin Turner and Travis Shaw would move the Mets up, but Turner is already 36, and Shaw is only one WAR better.
Did letting Springer slip through their fingers cost the Mets the needed wins to reach the playoffs? It depends on what moves they make next. If they stand pat on the position players, it probably did. With LeMahieu likely headed back to the Yankees, the Mets will need to sign Wong and swap McNeil out for Davis, or trade Davis for some other position player.
It is not that Davis is not a major league player. He is a major league hitter. He is a terrible fielder, and so putting him at a prime position is just bad decision-making. Prior studies show Sandy Alderson teams looking to improve the defense. Wong is well under the radar and is likely available for $8-10M per season.
Buying a ticket to the playoffs for that low amount seems like a tremendous deal.
I think D.J. is officially re-signed with the Yankees which will drive the cost of Wong up further.
Interesting piece. I believe that signing Springer, while it would have looked like a good lineup on paper, would have handcuffed them from making the right moves for the next half-decade. I am on the same page as the author who penned ‘Mets dodged a bullet by not signing Springer’.
Your assertion that Davis is a terrible third baseman is a misplaced focus. Remember that McNeil was the starting third baseman for the first nine games of 2020, made 5 errors, and never went back. Davis actually is a better option at the hot corner than McNeil.
Your line of ‘not turning the double play and extending the innings being a killer’ is spot on. Second base is now perhaps the top priority to address. Most people seem to think that McNeil will be adequate there, but when they spent all that money to get the best (?) – certainly one of the top three – defensive shortstops in baseball, pairing him with a sub-standard second baseman seems pointless. Wong would be a great fit, but would cause other issues.
Now with tall that said, where does that leave McNeil? Hmm . . moving him to third does not make much sense for the aforementioned reasons. Can they trade him for a good centerfielder, a pitcher with some control, and a good prospect? He is a round peg in a square hole for the Mets at this point.
Lastly, while they are seemingly within distance of a very good 2021 season, they also need to be setting the foundation for 2022 thru 2025. 2022 and 2023 has the Cano issue with his salary staring at them.
I’m not sure what you mean by “misplaced focus”. Davis is rated below McNeil offensively *and* defensively, and is really bad at defense.
I think Wong would be a fantastic signing. Not sure what he’ll coat but he’s a gold glover, a good guy and a decent hitter. Despit making a few errors there early in the season, McNeil is better at the hot corner than Davis. If we can’t get Wong, Jonathan Villar is another option. If we can’t get either, we can bring back Frazier. I know he’s not the player he was, but he plays a nice third base, still has some power and he’s a great clubhouse guy. This team will need veteran bench depth and Davis (like Wilmer Flores) can hit and play multiple positions, but none of them well.
The problem with Frazier or Villar is they can’t produce enough WAR – their performance overall isn’t better than Davis’, just distributed differently.
Right now, the Mets have a late inning defensive squad with Heredia CF and Guillorme at 3B. Guillorme for 2B and McNeil shifting to 3B would be better. The problem is the Mets apparently have lost confidence in McNeil at 3B. In spring training McNeil should show them that the defensive stats are right, that he is a better 3B than a 2B. Like you Chris, I think he is also.
3B, CF and LF are going to be problem this year. Your solution with Wong is sound but I don’t buy into it without the DH. A trade would be a better solution or Turner short term .
Springer would have been fine, but lets not pretend he is Willy Mays. We will get by. And that kind of money is best reserved.
Agree that he would have been fine, but he’s not Willie Mays.
That motivated me to go to Baseball Reference and see the batters that Springer is most similar to, according to BR: (1) Tony Conigliaro, (2) Yoenis Cespedes, (3) Richard Hidalgo. LOL! And Kris Bryant is eighth.
There are no tomorrows.
If you want to build a sustained contender there are.
Do you have any evidence of that? Teams that built sustained contenders without large payrolls? Yankees? Red Sox? Dodgers?
The point is that if you want to build a sustained contender you need to be cognizant of what long term contracts will mean for you down the line and have to think about tomorrow. I’m sure the Angels would rethink the Pujols contract if they could.
I understand your assertion. I’d like to see the evidence it is true. For every Pujols, there is a David Ortiz. And you have to show that the Angels couldn’t have signed someone else anyway, rather than just lip service from ownership. They can cut bait on Pujols *at any time*.
Not sure that Ortiz is the right counter to Pujols. When Pujols switched teams, he was one of the top FA around. When Ortiz switched teams, he was picked up by the Sox after being released by the Twins.
My guess is there are at least as many $100 million dollar contracts that didn’t work out as those that did.
Just from the Mets’ POV – Beltran worked, JDG looks like his will work. Cespedes’ didn’t. Wright’s didn’t
Pujols contract was bad on its face. No one was offering 10 years to Springer. The market isn’t at a point where a 4-year contract will handcuff anyone. I mean, The Blue Jays could afford it.
Second, it isn’t just “first acquisition”. It is paying a player to stay. So every player at or around Springer’s age that signs a 4 year contract is an example – even with his existing team if the claim is “we’re going to be payroll restricted”. Springer was never going to command ARod money.
When you advocate for things against the game’s standard operating procedure – you could be 100% right and still be 100% wrong. The idea that a Springer contract wouldn’t handcuff anyone flies in the face of everything we’ve witnessed about MLB team owners since the day we started following the game.
On paper, every ownership team in MLB could afford it – so why doesn’t it happen in reality, with even one team? Surely these highly-educated, highly-competitive people and businesses that own teams are acutely aware that it takes money to make money, right?
Still baffled at why we can’t make McNeil better at 2B and Smith a stronger LF presence. In my younger days I took hundreds of fly balls and base hit scenarios in the outfield and learned positioning and most importantly knowing instinctively where to throw a ball hit up me. It helped me make up for not having great speed or an awesome arm. Much like a golfer hits thousands of balls and learns from repetition. I’d rather pick up another solid starter to give us 6 solid innings. We have enough in the BP to cover the last 9 outs. Nimmo will be adequate in CF.