In early October, many of the writers here did a project where we conducted the offseason in a vacuum, making a roster for the 2021 Mets. Two things that we didn’t know at the time were that teams would aggressively look to cut payroll whenever possible and that Robinson Cano would be suspended for the season and not have his contract count against the team’s payroll and CBT for the season. Also, we made the assumption that the DH would return.

Re-reading mine, there was a trade with the Indians where the Mets picked up a starting pitcher. But it turned out to be completely unrealistic, as the trade had the Indians taking on salary, while in reality they declined a reasonable option on Brad Hand to save money, while also trading two players to the Mets – including a pitcher – to remove roughly $30 million more from their payroll.

My roster had the Mets trading Michael Conforto to create the payroll room to get George Springer. The Cano suspension allowed a big deal to happen without trading away a middle-of-the-order bat. My roster also had the Mets spending more to get certain free agents than the market ended up requiring. One of those was Taijuan Walker, who currently remains without a team.

Friend of the site John from Albany, with his breakfast links column today, had a tweet in regards to Walker.

Heartwarming stories aside, it’s reasonable to wonder why Walker is still available as we get ready for the second week of February. A good guess is that free agent starting pitching was in a state of flux, as everyone was waiting for Trevor Bauer to sign to establish the top of the market. Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman both taking the Qualifying Offer didn’t add any clarity to the market, either. And the final bit of mud to the picture was Masahiro Tanaka going back to Japan after seven years in the U.S. and Tomoyuki Sugano not coming to terms to pitch in this country.

That leaves Walker in a group of pitchers like Jake Arrieta, Jake Odorizzi, James Paxton and Rick Porcello who are all still waiting for a team to sign them. Let’s take a look at that quintet:

Arrieta – Wil turn 35 in a month. It’s been a steady downhill slide for Arrieta since winning the CY Award in 2015. His K/9, which was once over 9.0, fell to 6.5 in 2020. His BB/9, which once was sub-2.0, was 3.25 last year. He’s still capable of the occasional good start – his two 2020 outings against the Mets resulted in 3 ER in 12.1 IP with 11 Ks – but he’s a guy who would be competing for a fifth starter’s job, rather than a big step forward for a club.

Odorizzi – After a terrific 2019, when he went 15-7 and posted a 4.3 fWAR, Odorizzi was limited to just four starts last year due to an intercostal strain and a blister on his finger. And in those four games, he allowed 4 HR in 13.2 IP. He’s younger – will turn 31 next month – and better than Arrieta. The real concern is if 2019 was just a career year and even if the injuries are in the rear view if he’s just a slightly better than average pitcher.

Paxton – From 2017-19, Paxton went 38-17 with a combined 11.6 fWAR. The problem is that he did not reach 30 starts in any of those seasons. Last year he made just five starts due to back and elbow injuries. A lefty who throws in the mid-90s, he’s the most-talented pitcher still available. But staying healthy is a skill, too.

Porcello – Mets fans saw Porcello up close and personal last year and few are eager for a return engagement. But Porcello is one of the most durable pitchers around and despite the lousy results last year, there’s a case to be made that it was bad sequencing more than bad pitching, as he had a 3.33 FIP compared to a 5.64 ERA.

Walker – Durable and Walker have never come up in the same sentence. But he made 11 starts last year and if it was a 162-game season, it might very well have been his best. Of course, his best is just the 2.5 fWAR he put up back in 28 starts back in 2017. But he’s just 28 years old and he offers the best combination of age and upside of the pitchers still available.

The Mets are in a position to gamble on health with Paxton. With Noah Syndergaard slated to return sometime in 2021, to go along with the depth they’ve acquired this season, a 20-start campaign from Paxton wouldn’t cripple them, assuming he pitched at pre-2020 levels. It would almost be reminiscent of what the Dodgers have done these past few seasons, with guys like Rich Hill, Kenta Maeda and Ross Stripling putting up good numbers in 15 or so starts while spending time on the IL or bullpen. There hasn’t been much talk about Paxton and the Mets but maybe there should be.

With Stroman and Syndergaard both eligible for free agency following the 2021 season, it would be nice if the Mets could get someone who could be here for 2022 and beyond. And here’s where Odorizzi and Walker seem like better options for the club. Yes, all three have injury questions. But which one of these pitchers would you want to sign to a 4-year deal? Walker is the upside play, Odorizzi is probably the “safe” pick while Paxton is the high risk/high reward option.

Just from a 2021 point of view, you could make a case for the Mets signing any of the three. Before the offseason officially began, Walker was my pick. But right now, assuming the medicals are okay, my choice would be Paxton. The possibility of getting 25 or so starts from the pitcher that Paxton was pre-2020 is just too tantalizing for me to pass up.

The Mets needed some stability in the rotation and hopefully they got that with Carlos Carrasco and Stroman. They have the ability to take on some risk and the potential payoff with Paxton is bigger than the others. At the end of the day, 25 starts of Paxton is better than 32 starts of either Odorizzi or Walker.

28 comments on “The risk and reward for Mets with remaining free agent pitcher options

  • Remember1969

    +1 Well done, Brian.

    Extra thoughts:

    Sign both Paxton and Walker and they are still under the CBT.

    Peterson has never pitched more than 128 innings in any year. He will probably not magically post 180+ in 2021

    Stroman has not pitched at all in 18 months. While he is a fitness freak and undoubtedly has been throwing regularly, I am not sure that regimen = a full season of games.

    Even deGrom and Carrasco had short seasons. Is it realistic to assume that anyone is going to be tossing 200+ innings this year?

    Let’s stock up . sign them both.

    • Brian Joura

      For a point of reference – in 2019 only 15 pitchers in MLB threw 200 innings.

      • Remember1969

        Yea, 200 IP years are going the way of the 275+ ones from 40 or 50 years ago, and I suspect 2021 will be a big stepping stone to that.

  • Foxdenizen

    The article mentions Rich Hill in an aside, but not as one of the pitchers the Mets should target. Perhaps he should be looked at as a signing, a bridge to Noah Syndergaard. In 2020 he made 8 starts with a 3.03 ERA and a 3.99 FIP. He made 3 mill last year so he shouldn’t be real expensive. Yes he will be 41 this season but as a one year deal in that bridge role he could well be a plus for the team.

  • Wobbit

    Great Analysis, Brian. I feel much more prepared to await the results. Personally I like the short term deals… like the Braves have used. But maybe in this case, the answer is: who is the best pitcher among the group. Sounds like Paxton or Odorizzi.

    You don’t mention Lucchesi in this article… what can we expect from him? We need a second LH starter.

  • T.J.

    Brian,
    Nice job as usual. New just broke that the Mets signed Almora…no money details yet. In light of the DH uncertainty, along with Bradley’s reported price tag, I think this move makes a ton of sense. I leaves them a nice bunch of money to still strengthen the rotation and 3rd base depth.

    Count me as one who was relieved that Bauer went elsewhere. Not that he wouldn’t have been a fine #2 and tilted the NL balance of power. The $85 million plus over two years to get him could very well deliver more wins spent elsewhere. Like you, I agree that Paxton makes the most sense, of course without knowing his market. Given the ifs with his health, a one-year deal should be all it takes, giving him a prove it season and the Mets flexibility going forward. With Freeman, Soto, and Harper in the NL East, a higher ceiling lefty is good to have.

    Alderson has done a very good job building starter depth leading into a season that is unprecedented in how SP will hold up over a possible 162+ games. There is a high probability that there will be three or more guys not in the opening day rotation that will need to deliver a lot of starter innings. The Mets now have enough of the guys that can come up and at least given them a chance to win when called upon. Paxton can be a 2/3 in a league that hasn’t seen as much of him, and even if it is for 15-18 games, that can be the difference in determining the NL East title. Lastly, if he does bounce back, he is a guy you can start in the playoffs as well.

    If not Paxton, I’d likely stick to a guy that would take a one year given Stroman and Syndergaard’s pending free agency. I would take back Porcello over Arietta. We know what Porcello is, and with some improved infield defense he could be an affordable and solid backend innings eater. Arietta has just looked like a guy running on fumes…very gutty, but worn down.

  • Metsense

    Again this was a thorough analysis. The Mets would be in a better position if they were to sign Odorizzi, Walker or Paxson, in that order. Arrieta with his inconsistencies and trending downward cycle would be more a problem than a solution. Since Syndergaard and Stroman aren’t signed in 2022 and Allan and Ginn are expected in 2023 so it wouldn’t be harmful to sign a pitcher to a multi year contract if they had to. Porcello and Hill would be a short term bandaid and a Plan D or E. The quest for Bauer tipped their hand that they need another reliable starter to challenge the Braves.

    • T.J.

      Barring injury, the 2022 controlled starters are deGrom, Carrasco, Peterson, Lucchesi, Yamamato, and of course the top prospects Allan and Ginn. That is not a bad start, but Syndergaard and Stroman may be the top free agent pitchers on the market, meaning likely they will retain only one. At this stage, I’d prefer Syndergaard, but of course we all need to see what occurs in 2021. I can see reluctance with Odorizzi give his market may well be three years. I could live with Walker on a two year but that’s probably the only one at this stage. I agree with Porcello, Hill, and Arietta as plans D or E…disappointing unless they were a trade off to land a big 3B like Turner or Bryant.

      • Remember1969

        Don’t forget about Sam McWilliams. He is the sleeper for the rotation.

  • Mike W

    Please, not Porcello. I like the idea of a two year deal for another starter because Syndergaard and Stroman may both be gone if they are not resigned.

    I like Walker. I just have this feeling about him.

    I think Almora was a good pickup. I think that’s all she wrote on going after Bradley.

    Next few weeks will be interesting.

  • Wobbit

    If Lucchesi is legit, I don’t see Porcello or Arietta making a dent, and therefore not worth roster spot. Walker and Odorizzo are another story. Both have the chance to challenge the starting five… both give true depth to SP that is very decent at this point.
    With expectably-productive offense and a well-managed bullpen, the Mets are well-positioned with their rotation. Reasonable expectations for Wins (circa 30 starts):
    DeGrom 17-22
    Peterson 12-16
    Carrasco 12-16
    Stroman 10-14
    Lucchesi 10-14
    total 61-82 Wins from 5-man rotation.
    (not allowing for Syndergaard’s impact)

    If Diaz get to 30 saves, Lugo stays healthy, and the back end stays intact, I see a solid pitching season. A whole lot depends on Rojas and his management of the pen.

  • Paulc

    With the jump in innings for all SP from last year to this year, we can expect a lot of SP injuries. Pitching depth probably will make the difference in winning the NL East by resting guys with spot starts and eating innings for IL stints. Walker has the best combination of youth and upside on a relatively cheap 2-year contract. Obviously, his health is a big risk. Paxton is a decent option, but he’s 4 years older than Walker. Take the flyer on Walker.

  • TexasGusCC

    Most of these guys would seem to be acceptable options, but I don’t know if the Mets can have their pick. These guys all want a clear path to a rotation spot – without talk of relieving – and then there’s other factors such as geography, state taxes, and family preference. Clearly there is money for two of them, but with JdG, Carrasco, and Stroman in the front of the train, how many chairs are left? Who don’t I want to see? 1. Porcello – I have never seen a straighter fastball in my life. 2. Arietta – His arm seems tired and worn. 3. Rich Hill – Besides his idiotic getting arrested just trying to go to a Patriots game and his constantly getting hurt, he hits batters at a high rate to cover his lack of stuff; thirty HBP in his last 500+ innings is a lot. Also, he did hit Nimmo three times in a game and I can’t get over that. That’s just me.

    The Mets rotation seems pretty set and anyone that says “well, Noah is coming off injury” isn’t keeping an eye on Noah’s progress and that guy will need a spot too in two months. For many years we have lamented that the Mets don’t give opportunity to their younger players. Well, here is opportunity: Yamamoto, Peterson, McWilliams, Kilome (who was working with Pedro Martinez), Lucchessi, Lugo and perhaps someone else can step up! So, if Peterson deserves a spot, you have five guys to fill in a fifth starter spot that may even may even get skipped at times. So, if it isn’t a clear upgrade, what’s the use?

    • Brian Joura

      If you ever have a chance to watch old clips of Neil Allen – he had the straightest fastball of any Mets that I can recall.

      • Mike W

        Dwight Gooden had a very straight fastball too.

        • TexasGusCC

          I don’t know about that Mike. I recall batters saying that Gooden’s fastball looks like it’s rising as it comes to the plate. Looks like a golf ball and then just explodes up in the zone.

          • JamesTOB

            But after a couple of seasons, Gooden’s fastball lost that ‘rise’ and he started to scuffle a little bit. I remember sports writers speculating on what was wrong with him.

      • MattyMets

        Armando Benitez

    • T.J.

      Gus,
      You make an excellent point that just reminded me that I left out one name, Collin McHugh. Assuming he is healthy (the disclaimer on all pitchers) he could be a guy that could help both/either the rotation and/or pen.

      • JamesTOB

        I’ve always liked McHugh. A fine person as well as a good pitcher.

  • Wobbit

    I was always amazed at Bobby Parnell… hardest thrower in baseball at the time and couldn’t get people out… in his case, 100mph ain’t enough. Feel the same about Matz… 95 and can’t miss a bat.

    • TexasGusCC

      Wobbit, I thought of Parnell when I was writing what I did about Porcello. Porcello’s is a frozen rope, and I remember writing that in the chatter when Alec Bohm took an outside fastball over the wall down the right field line. You could see the pitch right out of the hand and into the hit zone was straight as a string.

      TJ, McHugh is a very good thought. Just looked him up too, and he has been from good to excellent these last three years. Why is he still unsigned?

      Brian, all I remember about Neil Allen are fond memories of Gary Carter taking him over the fence in 1985 season opener and that he brought us Keith Hernandez. Can’t believe we snookered the White Rat like that!

      • JamesTOB

        That was Frank Cashen’s doing, the same Frank Cashen who built the great Orioles teams. He was a master at evaluating talent. I might add that Keith’s reputation as a party guy didn’t endear him to Whitey, but Cashen saw what he would bring to the Mets.

  • Wobbit

    I was very happy to hear of the Almora deal because I greatly favored him over JBJ, who appears to still be considered. Consider that Almora is still 26, makes good contact, and will benefit from Chili Davis teaching him to use the whole field. I expect Almora will hit .275 minimum in somewhat limited PAs, mostly against lefties.

    Before dropping way too much money on Bradley JR., who is probably past his best production (that’s what the old Mets would do) and whose position we largely have covered, I want a high-quality infielder who can step in at 2B and cover if McNeil gets dinged up (he will). I’m hoping Guillorme will play a lot of 3B (the end of every game, too) and is Lindor’s backup when needed, so we need a RH hitter and good glove at 2B, who can spot start and play late-game defense. If no one is out there, it’s time for Mauricio!

    • Remember1969

      I will admit that I was a JBJ proponent, I am ok with Almora at this point. Almora does not solve the problem of defense in centerfield as he is not a full time starter, but he should play a useful role.

      I agree that a reunion with Davis may do him wonders and return him to the hitter he was for the two years they worked together in Chicago. It sure appears that he sold out his best craft for the almighty home run and destroyed his average.

      I do not believe you can make the statement that JBJ is probably past his best production. He just put out the best production of his career in 2020. At a reasonable age 30, there is no reason he cannot replicate that for a couple years.

      I agree with you about the high quality infielder who can step in at 2B. I am going out on a limb and say that Guillorme is your guy. I get some crazy feeling that they’ll go get Kris Bryant to play third this year and Guillorme will be the super sub, mostly for McNeil at second.

      I wonder how much of a fast track they push Mauricio down. I would love to see him up by early 2022, with the proverbial cup of coffee at the end of 2021.

    • TexasGusCC

      Sounds to me like you’re wanting Jedd Gyorko. Why is he still available?

  • Wobbit

    I’ll leave it to you guys to look up the metrics, but I heard that Almora was a plus defender in CF. Yes, his increased homer total indicates a shift to power hitting, maybe for Wrigley. At #8 or 9 in the order, he can learn to hit again.

    I’ll be frank. I think that Guillorme can be the full-time 3B, or very close to it. What would we get? He’ll hit close to .300, with lots of doubles and good situational hitting, all with a plus plus glove at third. The one time he got a chance to play more regularly, with a spate of ABs in 2020, he amazed at the plate. The guy can hit. Mets would be foolish to relegate him to bench status without using his talents. I’d use him to wait for Baty… big contracts be damned.
    The 2B help they need has to hit RH. Would give McNeil a chance to sit against tough lefties and get valuable rest. I expect full time 2B for McNeil, a pretty rough and tumble position, will be a challenge to his body.

  • NYM6986

    Since we are talking about a #5 then Paxton leads the list. But I’d sign another like Hill, for some one year magic. Remember that Porcello and Wacha were supposed to battle it out for that spot last year, not rapidly move up the line with Thor and Stroman out. And Matz was a disaster. You never have enough pitching and Petersen emerged as a result. So who is destined for Syracuse and is ready for the big show? That’s what SP will tell us. Let’s also remember that Guillorme and Smith were stellar over a 60 game season but not a grueling long season. Let’s not cast JD to the bench just yet. Much like Nimmo in LF, Davis’ offensive contributions outweigh his not so solid glove. Nice pick for a defensive replacement in CF but still want starter Nimmo at the top of the order and getting on base!

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