Oh my god! Trevor Bauer is going to be on the Dodgers! That’s terrible! The Mets offseason is ruined! Steve Cohen and his money, what a crock of… You know where that sentence was going. Twitter is in an uproar. Same old Mets, etc, etc.

Yes, Bauer is going to sunny California and guess what, that’s totally ok.

Let’s clear this up right now. Bauer is not remotely worth what he’s being paid. Professional athletes get paid obscene amounts of money. Pete Alonso is pre-arbitration and he’ll still get paid more in 2021 than most people will make in the next four to five years combined. In 2012, Jason Bay made 16 million dollars for 215 plate appearances and a .165 batting average. 16 million dollars is more than 95 percent of the population will make in their lifetimes. Even in that world, 85 million dollars over the next two years is totally ridiculous and he’s not going to be worth that contract.

Bauer has had one great year, in the pandemic shortened 2020 season. He had one terrific year in 2018, when he made 26 starts and had an ERA of 2.21 and was part of one of the best starting pitching staffs in recent memory. But outside of those two years, Bauer’s never had an ERA below 4.15 and he was putrid in the 10 starts he made for the Reds after they traded for him in 2019, posting a 6.39 ERA in only 56 innings over those starts. He’s not an innings eater and is well known as a personality that can be divisive in a clubhouse and on social media.

Also, we can’t forget about the Carlos Carrasco acquisition. In the first five years they pitched together in Cleveland, Carrasco was better than Bauer in the vast majority of categories (IP, ERA, WHIP, WAR, etc). If you discount 2019, where Carrasco was fighting cancer and Bauer was horrific with the Reds, then the pandemic shortened 2020 is one of the few instances in which Carrasco was inferior to Bauer. But inferior is a relative term as Carrasco still posted a 2.91 ERA and 1.9 WAR in 2020, which for everyone looking for a number two starter behind Jacob deGrom, would have been the second best WAR amongst Mets pitchers.

The Mets need another starting pitcher, but they really only need a fourth or fifth starter, meaning they didn’t need to spend 40 million dollars on a me first kind of guy who has been really good for 20 percent of his career and very average the other 80 percent.

This isn’t a moment of being an armchair quarterback either. Yes, athletes get paid a lot of money, but that also doesn’t mean that throwing exorbitant sums at remarkably average players is worthwhile. 40 million dollars can be used in a lot of places. There is a lot of talk about Jake Arrieta, Taijuan Walker or Rich Hill, all classic veteran back of the rotation starters. Relief pitching is probably going to be looked at, or signing a multi-talented veteran like Marwin Gonzalez. Jackie Bradley Jr. is still reportedly on the table as well. They’ve already signed Albert Almora Jr and his fantastic glove as a reserve and potential platoon option with Brandon Nimmo.

40 million dollars also makes it more likely they resign Francisco Lindor and Michael Conforto as they wouldn’t have had that excess amount sitting on the books next year when Robinson Cano’s contract comes back. Let’s also not forget that Noah Syndergaard is coming back by the summer and is also in the final year of his contract. If Syndergaard comes back from Tommy John surgery like his old self, the Mets are much better off spending some of that 40 million there as well. Why? In nearly 300 fewer innings pitched (injury shortened 2017 and missing the entire 2020 season), Syndergaard has a better ERA, WHIP, FIP and SO/W ratio. He’s also only posted a WAR in the time period that both pitched in the league (Bauer’s first full season was in 2014, Syndergaard’s rookie year was 2015) that is 0.6 below Bauer’s.

Was it wrong for the Mets to pursue Bauer? Of course not. At the minimum it shows that the new Mets are truly in the hunt for all of these players, which was not consistently true under the Wilpons. Bauer’s 40 million dollar price tag was also a bi-product of the market and the lack of elite starting pitching in competition with him. It’s also a me-first response from a guy who seems as concerned with making more money than his old classmate Gerrite Cole than he is with actually playing baseball.

Here’s a prediction: the Mets are going to get more production with the combination of players that 40 million dollars will be spent on than they would have out of Bauer’s 30 starts. It’s basic math. The percentages don’t lie. The Mets did right by not getting in a bidding war with the Dodgers and guess what, the team is going to be just fine.

11 comments on “The percentages say it’s good that Trevor Bauer isn’t a Met

  • NYM6986

    The money is really shocking. The reality is that we need #5 not a 1A who really is a #3 until does it for another season. Sample size for record money is just too small. Glad to spend the money elsewhere and try and catch some lightning in a bottle. We’ve also been pretty good at some trade deadline trades. It’s been a good offseason and it’s not yet over.

  • TexasGusCC

    There’s a reason these teams are offering Bauer $40-$45MM per year, and that reason isn’t charity. I saw some “film” – to use a long lost phrase – of Bauer, and he was filthy. That slider just falls off the table and is unhittable, and his fastball just darts up in the zone. He would have been nice… and if Stroman falls to the #5 spot, ok.

    Now, what can they do with that $40MM? Wobbit recommended a offensive infielder and we just so happen to have one available in Jedd Gyorko, who also is an average fielder at third base and can fake it at second base – but Guillorme is there for that if McNeil is not there for the game. And, I would like to see if Lugo really is a poor man’s Charlie Morton, so I’m signing Trevor Rosenthal for my bullpen, so I can have Lugo start in the Syndergaard spot. Lugo was done in by a 9.35 away ERA in September and a .415 BABIP and hid GB% shot up to 50%. I’m not giving up on the guy after those kinds of numbers over four starts, especially with a 12.9 K/9 as a starter. Just those numbers alone are better than Paxton and Orodozzi, whom everybody wants. In two months when Thor comes back, we take stock of who sucks and who doesn’t. If Betances is still trying to work himself into shape for some reason, he goes. If Familia still needs a map to find the strike zone, he can go. And if Brad Brach is still batting practice during games, see ya!

    That’s where I’d start putting some of that money and of course save a little for late July.

  • MattyMets

    I breathed a sigh of relief when I saw Bauer would sign with the Dodgers.

    I really like this team but see a few remaining weaknesses that need to be addressed. 1) a reliable SP to eat some innings at the back end til Thor comes back. 2) another bench player or two 3) a third catcher to stash in AAA. We can plug those holes for $10mm and put the rest of our “savings” toward locking up Lindor, Conforto, and Syndergaard.

    • Metsense

      $40 M is insane for any athlete to make but the owners are still making a profit or they wouldn’t be in business and the consumers are still buying the product. In this case, the consumer pays for this unnecessary item, MLB, and supports the price. The consumer has the finally say.
      The Dodgers are banking on a 5.8 – 7.3 fWAR for their $40M. I agree with the author that Bauer isn’t worth the risk. The $40M should be allocated to upgrade weaker positions . For example, Odorizzi 3+ fWAR and Turner 4+ fWAR and Rosenthal 1.2+ fWAR should yield more fWAR than Bauer and less expensive and less headaches.

  • Wobbit

    I’ll be happy when we no longer need to mention Trevor Bauer (oops, there it is). If Scott is remotely correct, Carrasco will adequately fill the number 2 with numbers not that dissimilar, and the Mets have so much more money to work with. With Almora in hand, I’d like to see the Mets play for better defense. In the outfield, that means more speed. I thought JDDavis was a decent left fielder, but his lack of speed just cut down his range too much… but I thought he had good instincts and a great gun. I would not hesitate to use him in LF as part of the RH lineup. I do not think he is good enough at 3B.
    As a pitching guy and a fan who tends to watch every inning, I’m looking forward to seeing Peterson’s starts and seeing whenever Kilome gets in a game. I liked what I saw of him. Anyone have a reason why Erasmo Ramirez was let go? 0.63 ERA in 14 innings last year… a rock in the storm. What’s a guy need to do to secure a roster spot in a bad bullpen? I’ll take him way before “I-have-no-idea-where-this-pitch-is-going” Familia or “I-was-really-good-once” Betances. Also, Shreve had a productive season, except for his last outing as I recall… a better bet than Blevins. I know, I know, it’s all about money, but Ramirez and Shreve had to be dirt cheap, no?

    • MattyMets

      Wabbit – totally see your point. The bullpen looks good in the late innings with Diaz, May and Lugo, and Loupe is solid. I have no confidence in the rest. With so many pitchers coming off bad years, injuries, opting out, etc. there will be more injuries and innings limits. In 2021, even more so than usual, pitching depth is going to be critical. Sandy should take his savings and go on a shopping spree for remaining FA arms. See who is left standing in musical chairs and give them ST invites with a chance to fight for an OD roster spot or a shuttle ride to Syracuse.

  • MikeW

    I am going to blunt. Bauer is a clown. A pile of you know what saying he didnt know on Friday when he woke up, where he was going to sign.

    He is more concerned about his website, social media and personal brand. Well, Trevor, the New York Mets is the brand and the Mets are in it to win it. It’s about the team Trevor, not your brand.

    I just dont think he was a good fit for New York. He would be under intense scrutiny, especially with his 40 million dollar paycheck. He is no Max Scherzer.

    I am glad we didnt sign him, filthy stuff or not. We have a good team and will get even better without spending 40 million a year on one pitcher.

    He can now enjoy his social media and Facebook with the Kardashians.

    He may put the Dodgers over the top again, or he may be a 4.40 ERA pitcher and flop.

    Let’s go Mets.

    • Remember1969

      Perfect!

      The Mets are a better team without that sideshow.

  • TJ

    I was not among the disappointed when Bauer signed with the Dodgers. I got the feeling he was playing the Mets, and if it took in excess of $85 million over two years, no thanks. That’s not to say he isn’t a good pitcher that would have pushed the team up a level, but I’d need to see a bit more dominance to go to that price.

    Alderson was really intent on this signing. That says that he still sees the Mets as inferior to the Braves, no less the Dodgers, and the East is going to be quite competitive. The Mets have had a good offseason, even without landing Realmuto, Springer, or Bauer. How they pivot now is crucial. Alderson needs to add both WAR and defense, and the DH limbo is a major problem.

  • Wobbit

    So let’s say Carrasco gets 30+ starts wins 15 games, ERA around 3.50. How much better would any pitcher be than that, including he-whom-I-will-not-mention-again? I dare say the Mets are not better than the Braves because of the bottom half of their rosters. Sandy A. needs to earn his money getting the best guys available to step up in the late innings, and when the main guys go down. Just solid contributors, not superstars. It takes some ingenuity, cunning, and imagination. Figure out who’s out there and make the deal. There are a lot of guys, even some potential gems in the right situation waiting to be picked up… turn the wheels, Sandy!

    • Mr_Math

      Did you see the PECOTA projections for 2021 NLE? The Mets are projected to take the Braves by 10 games.

      The rabble on YouTube went berserk, throwing every conceivable insult at something they certainly didn’t understand, and likely never heard of. However, what I saw was that PECOTA perceived the likelihood that the Mets offense would top the division by 100 runs, and the possibility that the Mets staff will nearly match the Braves hurlers.

      The other projections (Phils, Nats, Fish) seemed quite likely

      José

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