Roster churn has always been part of the game; however, it seems like it’s been increasing the past few years. And that’s on an MLB-level. With the Mets, it seems like it’s in overdrive, especially in the past 12 months. Part of that was former GM Brodie Van Wagenen’s willingness to trade prospects for fringe major league players and part of that is the new regime’s mission to build 40-man roster depth. So, exactly how much churn have the Mets undergone? Here’s a list of guys who played in the majors last year for the club who are no longer on the 40-man:

Brad Brach, Robinson Cano, Yoenis Cespedes, Robinson Chirinos, Ryan Cordell, Brian Dozier, Todd Frazier, Andres Gimenez, Billy Hamilton, Jared Huges, Ariel Jurado, Juan Lagares, Walker Lockett, Jake Marisnick, Steven Matz, Eduardo Nunez, Corey Oswalt, Rick Porcello, Erasmo Ramirez, Wilson Ramos, Rene Rivera, Amed Rosario, Ali Sanchez, Paul Sewald, Chasen Shreve, Hunter Strickland, Michael Wacha, Justin Wilson.

And that list doesn’t include players who were on the 40-man but not on the major league roster – guys like Tyler Bashlor, Jordan Humphreys, Ryder Ryan – but who were sold or traded while on the 40-man last year.

Of the 31 names listed above, there are only a handful you’d want back now if they were available for free. On the flip side, there are only three players on the 40-man now who seem like wastes of a roster spot – Patrick Mazeika, Stephen Tarpley and Daniel Zamora. But you can make a case for those three without too much trouble. Mazeika is one of just three catchers on the 40-man and the other two named above are lefty relievers, which current GM Sandy Alderson simply adored in his first stint with the club.

But that’s a bit misleading.

Previously, we knew 40-man roster stalwarts like Bashlor and Sewald were not major league quality because we had seen them perform in the majors. But what does the average fan know about players like Jacob Barnes or Yennsy Diaz or Sean Reid-Foley? Are these types of players really an upgrade from The Bashlor Bunch or are they merely enjoying a honeymoon phase because they were acquired from outside the organization? Will we come to look at these guys the way we look at some recent additions to the 25-man roster, players like Adrian Hernandez and James Loney, ones who were, um, allegedly appealing because they were good in another organization three years ago?

To be clear, the expectation can’t be that all of the players on the 40-man are great and that they will all contribute to the MLB team’s success. If you’re lucky you bring in several players from outside the organization and one of them turns into Max Muncy.

The reality is that most of these depth guys are available for a reason and the reason isn’t because they made a pass at the owner’s wife. Let’s look at the MLB numbers of some guys currently on the 40-man

Yamomoto – 90 IP, 6.20 ERA, 19 HR
Tarpley – 44.2 IP, 6.55 ERA, 1.791 WHIP
Jose Martinez – Veteran had a .561 OPS last year and he’s not in the majors for his defense
Albert Almora – In his last 876 PA, has a 76 OPS+

And that’s not even counting holdovers like Robert Gsellman, Franklyn Kilome and Drew Smith – who don’t have any recent success, either.

Back in 2019, the Mets made a bunch of depth moves that were roundly applauded at the time. People signed off on the moves because they were name-brand veterans. Among others, they brought in Aaron Altherr, Luis Avilan, Keon Broxton, Rajai Davis, Carlos Gomez, Adeiny Hechavarria, Joe Panik and Hector Santiago – with only Avilan and Broxton on the Opening Day roster. None of those guys were on the roster in 2020.

The depth is different in 2021, mostly made up of guys who don’t have a ton of MLB experience. Will it work out better than the veteran approach of 2019? It’s hard to imagine it working out worse. For the record, the Mets’ 40-man roster depth is much improved. It’s just that the accolades the club has received seems out of whack with reality for what the depth will likely achieve.

Out of necessity, the Mets have gone outside the organization to fill in many spots on the 40-man. Ideally, there would be several players on the 40-man that were actual prospects. Right now, the only ones who really fit that bill are Khalil Lee and Thomas Szapucki. And they had to make a trade to acquire the former.

Previously, guys like Bashlor and Sewald were on the 40-man for years for two reasons. First, there was no one in the organization pushing them for the spot. Second, the club didn’t actively pursue challengers from outside the organization. Right now, what we’re seeing is the club addressing the second option. Are Tarpley and Yamomoto any real improvement from Bashlor and Sewald? Perhaps the best we can say for sure is that if the new additions prove not to be an upgrade, they likely won’t be around in 2022. And that is something, for sure. It’s just that we shouldn’t hurt ourselves patting ourselves on the back for that.

The real improvement comes when the majority of guys who are on the 40-man but in the minors are guys on the way up, not ones who stalled here or peaked elsewhere. The stalled/peaked guys should always have a place. But right now, the ratio between these two groups is flipped from where it should be. Here’s the breakdown of the 14 players – in my estimation – who won’t be on the Opening Day roster.

Stalled/Peaked – Almora, Gsellman, Kilome, Martinez, Mazeika, Smith, Tarpley, Yamomoto, Zamora
On the Way Up – Diaz, Lee, McWilliams, Reid-Foley, Szapucki

And that’s being charitable with Diaz and Reid-Foley. Still, that’s four of the five guys in the “On the Way Up” grouping who had to be imported from outside the organization. The Mets will have good 40-man roster depth when there are 8-10 players in that group and the overwhelming majority, if not a complete list, are guys who have been in the organization for a few years.

We can see that coming on the horizon.

13 comments on “Pumping the brakes on enthusiasm for the Mets’ 40-man roster depth

  • Remember1969

    It seems that this is more about the lousy job drafting and signing international talent in the second half of the last decade than anything, although BVW’s trading did not help matters, trading a couple of the best picks they had.

    I think, and hope you are right. The top end of the farm system should fill in with prospects over the next couple years. I hope they can keep filling the back-end with good players to create a sustainable pipeline.

    • Brian Joura

      The international signings have been disappointing but it was Rosario and Gimenez who went in the Lindor trade and Santana as the big piece in the deal that got J.D. Davis.

      The U.S./draft picks part of the farm system, following an outrageously productive period from 2012-2016, has graduated Peterson, Alonso, McNeil, Dominic Smith, Tomas Nido and Luis Guillorme since 2017, as well as Justin Dunn, Anthony Kay and Blake Taylor.

      Early promotions, trades and injuries have all hurt the “On the Way Up” section of the 40-man. To me, those are much bigger factors than “lousy” drafting. Whether you want to look at raw numbers of draft picks who’ve made it to the majors or guys who’ve been productive starters – the Mets are in the top half of the majors since Alderson first came on the scene for the 2011 Draft.

      • Remember1969

        This would make an interesting deeper analysis piece. I guess I need to admit that I am not sure what makes a good draft grade, but as I look back, I see the middle years of the 2010’s seemingly with a lot of misses.

        The draft class of 2013 has produced Dom Smith (#1), Luis Guillorme (#10) and Jeff McNeil (#12). None of the #2 thru #9 picks made it.

        In 2014, there was Michael Conforto and nobody else.

        The only player from the 2015 draft still in any discussion is Thomas Szapucki (#5 pick). He could conceivably become a useful major league pitcher, but he will be 25 years old in June. I guess an argument could be made for Patrick Mazieka (#8 pick), but he is already 27 years old and has not shown that he is still a prospect

        2016 had Dunn, Kay and Alonso. I guess the top three is good, but there is nobody left in the system from that class.

        It seems the drafts got a little stronger in 2017, headed by Peterson, with Vientos, Brody, Dibrell, and a couple others still in the system.

        2018, 2019, and 2020 still look fairly good, but all are still at the lower levels. The 2020 COVID year has affected these guys more than any others.

        I do like Alvarez and Mauricio as international signings and the MLB top 30 prospect list is peppered with others as well, but again most still in A.

        To conclude, I have never done a comparison of the Mets drafts to any other team, but I guess I would have expected more #2 thru #10 picks to have progressed through from the 2013 thru 2016 years. Maybe my expectations are too high.

        • Brian Joura

          Evaluating Minaya’s Mets farm system

          There’s a link to an update at the end of that piece that’s worth reading, too.

          • Remember1969

            Brian, Thank you for this – I had not seen either of those pieces. They are enlightening and have reset my expectations.

            St. Lucie’s club this year looks like it could be extremely strong and it will be fun watching some of the system’s top prospects proceed through. I hope Binghamton can realize a lot of that talent over the next couple years – and then push it up to Citi Field!

  • Foxdenizen

    The only player I will miss from the departees of last year’s 40 man is Gimenez, I think he is going to be a very productive infielder for years.

  • Wobbit

    What I value from guys on the bench is versatility. I have little use for one-dimensional players… like guys you have to run for in late innings if they reach base. So Villar, Pillar, Almora fit my bill for redeemable members of the squad.

    I’m not looking for gang busters from these guys, but
    what if Almora can adapt to Chili Davis and hit .275 and play very solid OF?
    what if Pillar can settle the OF defense with experienced coverage in selective playing time?
    what if Villar can keep his head on straight and be Mr. Everything in reserve?

    I’m sure the Mets will score runs. The question is whether they can hold leads in the late innings. The moves they have made make this more likely than in previous seasons.

  • Metsense

    I really enjoy your Sunday morning articles and look forward to them every Sunday.

    When Paul DePodesta was with the Mets under Alderson he said that ideally a minor should have the pushed their way onto to the major league roster. David Groveman’s excellent piece on the St Lucie Mets will foretell the realization of DePodesta’s quote. I can see it coming on the horizon also.

  • TJ

    Brian,
    Fair points for sure. It is safe to say that the 40 man is upgraded but not elite. As usual with the Mets, the accolades are too high and the criticisms too strong. My takeaway is that Alderson and Co. did well given where they were and where they are now. Are there still some soft spots, for sure. I think spots 22-32, give or take, have gotten much stronger, which is important and historically overlooked by the Met brass. I do think the system has produced well over the last 12 years or so, and they navigated the 40 man upgrade this winter while holding some exciting prospects. Brodie’s foible probably cost them a tip 10 ranking.

    Minor point but I would argue that Kilome could still be considered a prospect, since he went from AA to TJ to rushed into MLB duty due to lack of options. I’m curious to see if they either give him the ball every 5th day in AAA, or install him as closer in AAA, how he performs.

    • Brian Joura

      I did consider putting Kilome in the “On the Way Up” grouping. Perhaps I’m weighing 2020 too much but this is his age-26 season and we’re hoping he can be a long reliever, a role the club doesn’t often use.

  • TexasGusCC

    I read an interview a couple of years back with a Dodger, I believe it was Corey Seager, and he was asked about focus at Dodgers camp. His response was that there is always a good, young prospect on the team that want his job. He said every position has a kid that is looking for a job and everything is earned on the Dodgers. The Mets can use that kind of approach.

  • JamesTOB

    Quite insightful as usual. Thanks.

    • Brian Joura

      Thanks to you and Metsense for the kind words!

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