In a few short hours, the Steve Cohen led New York Mets will take the field and launch an historic beginning for the franchise. Although the transition to a new future in Queens was anything but seamless starting with a rocky sale of the club and the hiring-then-firing of a general manager in a matter of a few weeks, all under the shadow cast by a global pandemic. Despite all this, the excitement could hardly be more for the 2021 season to begin. With some number of live fans in the parks and apparently a full season of games to look ahead to, it feels as if the normal cadence of life is returning. That’s a big win on its own.
Like every fan, I can hardly wait to see Francisco Lindor in Orange and Blue. I suppose nothing has me more waiting in anticipation for this Spring Training. Trading for one of the best players in the game certainly made it clear that Cohen’s three-to-five-year time frame for bringing a championship to Queens is not the average unbelievable, stomach-churning drivel from the previous owners. Of all the Spring training things this team needs to do, signing Lindor for 10-12 years needs to be number one. My article last month < https://mets360.com/?p=42059 > outlined a case for a Hall of Fame career for Lindor. It is time to make this happen before opening day.
With all the enthusiasm to get rolling, a thought from Terry Collins rings as true as ever: the only numbers that mean less than those from September come from March. It’s not meant to be negative of course, but more that everyone is just getting rolling. Scores and stats don’t matter, or do they? The inequity of Spring Training starts fast as the numbers from guys like Jacob deGrom, or Francisco Lindor, or Michael Conforto aren’t worth anything as they work through specific routines and not focusing on specific production. By contrast, the spotlight will be on guys like J.D. Davis and Luis Guillorme who are fighting to show their importance to the club. Can Davis really play third base, or Dom Smith play left field at a Major League level? These players need to show up big time with the reduced number of innings in Spring training games this year and games that count coming very fast.
For the second year in a row, PECOTA projections place the Mets at the top of the NL East. Additionally, in a surprising result, MLB put the Mets at number 5 in the Power Rankings before a ball has been thrown. The pressure is clearly on with such expectations, but is the team ready for it? Historically this team has dug itself a pretty deep hole in the first three months of the season, leaving the post All Star Break stretch to take things seriously.
If the Mets really are going to be legitimate contenders in 2021, three things need to occur: (1) the team needs to be more than 5 games over .500 at the start of July; (2) Rojas cannot burn out the starting rotation in April and May no matter how tempting getting three-inning bull-pen wins will be. To protect management from going loopy with reliever use, especially in light of having bull pen arms not particularly known for quality outings, starters need to be more efficient and regularly get 7 IP per outing by playing to contact and forget about piling up strike outs; and (3) No matter how much it looks like the team is going to be a hitting juggernaut, without taking more advantage of scoring runners from second and third base, the offense will not look great.
For now, it is exciting just to know actual baseball is now underway. There are so many super cool things to look forward to this season, it hardly seems real. I guess more than anything, I can’t wat to see the first pitch shortly from now, and knowing it is ushering in a new era of Mets baseball that has given me more hope than in many many seasons.
LFGM!
Happy March folks!
Chris, no other sport brings the attention to preseason games that baseball does. It’s the official end of winter and it makes us all feel warmer. I would add that a small subplot to the players’ preparation for April would be how the 40 man roster will be constructed and how many of those minor league signings they can keep and how many will become free agents if they don’t make the team. It seemed weird to have Jeremy Hefner yesterday in his interview praise Jacob Barnes when a single pitch hadn’t been thrown yet, especially someone with such brutal lifetime numbers.
Regarding Chris’s #3 above: I put considerable emphasis on Chili Davis getting hitters to buy in to contact to all fields. This approach makes every hitter better late in the count, cuts down on strikeouts, and befuddles defenses bent on shifting. Pitchers hate guys who hit the ball where it’s pitched. Much harder to fool, harder to get the chase, and harder to know what pitch to throw in a given count. Fewer strikeouts.
Mets who already buy in: JD Davis, Guillorme, McNeil, Conforto.
Mets who could most benefit: Nimmo, Smith, Alonso, Villar.
If each hitter can adjust, keep lead shoulder in, stay on outside pitch longer, and if we can see an uptick in every hitter’s offensive stats, Mets will drastically increase RISP efficiency, a killer in many previous seasons.
Watching Game 1:
Early thoughts
– Sandy Alcantra is proving to be effective with his sinker as he’s generating ground balls.
– Great to see Harol Gonzalez on the mound. I think he is a viable 5th starter at the major league level
– Best thing about the first inning was Alonso’s walk. If pitchers are going to give him inside garbage he has to be willing to take the walks.
Ryley Gilliam’s control was rough. He was avoiding the biggest bats of the Marlins lineup and failed badly. When his pitches were in the zone they were hit very hard.
End of Game Thoughts:
– The Mets got some hits but it was another case of them not bringing batters home.
– The Mets did a pretty good job of not striking out and walked a bunch of times.
– It looks like the Mets are betting against the DH being part of the NL to start the season as Brandon Nimmo is still starting in center.
– Most Met pitchers looked pretty good today. Great to see an inning from Szapucki. His strikeout came on his curveball which scouts grade as plus.
– A little surprised to see the Mets use Mauricio, Vientos, Lee and Alvarez in the game. Certainly not unhappy.
Such optimism for the Mayor Panic City! It is strange what a new financial director, Cohen, can do to change attitudes.
Your article about Lindor made me believer.
To be contenders they need be more than 5 Games over 500 at the start of July. Eight to 10 games would be more appropriate to dub them contenders.
Point 2 is ideal but it is unrealistic. The MLB average is 5 2/3 for starters and deGrom averages 6 2/3 innings. Bullpen management is the key and I hope that Rojas and Heffner are up to it. Situational hitting will remedy Point 3 and is the philosophy Chili Davis preaches.
Play Ball !!!