Here are two Spring Training lines for your consideration:

Player A – 38 PA, 9 Runs, 2 RBIs, .250/.447/.357
Player B – 36 PA, 6 Runs, 3 RBIs, .258/.361/.355

Can we guess who the players are by their Grapefruit League stat lines? They both have a relatively large number of PA, meaning these are guys who are likely to be on the Opening Day roster, probably starters since this team doesn’t really have any position battles. Their run totals are more impressive than their RBI totals. Neither one is hitting for a great AVG or with great power but both are doing a good job of getting on base.

Here’s a hint – both of these guys have produced elevated BABIPs in one or both of the past two seasons. However, this Spring both are sporting more traditional marks in the category. Player A currently has a .300 BABIP and Player B has a .304 mark.

You’ve probably figured out by now the identity of our mystery men, even if not the order. Player A is J.D. Davis and Player B is Michael Conforto.

My opinion is that the above stat lines don’t represent the true-talent level of either player. My belief is that they both will produce more power and neither will continue with their current walk rates. But it’s one representation of their output when the hits aren’t falling in at outrageous levels.

15 comments on “Wednesday catch-all thread (3/24/21)

  • Wobbit

    I’m not worried about Conforto or JD. Both should have strong seasons, maybe Conforto’s best. If he gets some protection in the lineup, I see him cutting down on Ks, hitting more selectively, and capable of carrying the team when he gets hot.
    I can’t understand why Gsellman makes the team. Yesterday I saw Barnes throw very hard and with tight, late-breaking stuff. I’m ready for the very unlikely chance that Gsellman becomes a decent pitcher, that he does it for another team (like Matz). His upside just not nearly up enough.
    Also, I can’t see what really important role Familia will possibly play. We may never have the confidence in him to pitch in high-leverage situations. Why not pay most of his salary and package him to someone in real need of bullpen help? Getting anything for Familia is better than having him pitch this season, IMO.
    And Betances. I guess no one is fooled. Unless he can rehab and get back to where he was, it was an experiment worth the effort. No one except Gary Cohen will remember that he wore a Mets uniform.
    I keep Montgomery, Barnes, and even Blevins instead of lost causes.

    • ChrisF

      Interesting thoughts Wobbit. I remember the end of the Gsellman first season when would be considered a critical component of a killer rotation only to have that permanently fall flat. I dont see a future for him either. I still am in total shock the Mets brought back Familia, who had anomalously good luck for a spell but who overall is done. Its time to “pay-and-release”. I cant envision any team would give up any prospect of any kind to take on Familia even with 100% carrying the freight by the Mets. The same with Betances. Oh, the long arm of Brodie Van Waste-of-time.

      As far as Players A and B. I don’t think the spring stats matter much. McNeil either. The only stat I really care about seriously is emerging without severe physical injury or mental frustration over having a “poor” Spring – like McNeil.

      Carrasco and Lowrie feel far too similar to me.

    • MattyMets

      Wabbit, well said. My prediction (based on pure speculation) is that Gsellman gets traded or released this week before OD and Betances is cut loose around the time Lugo,Carasco and Thor return. At 6mm wnd with his earlier track record the FO feels they have to give him a shot. Familia, as much as he gives us all agita, has looked good in ST and is making too much to release or trade (without eating most of gis salary). I’m hopeful that Castro and Barnes can step up and help fill the role these guys were supposed to play. We may need bullpen reinforcements at the trade deadline.

  • Mr_Math

    According to the smelly people at ESPN, here are the only 5 Mets who are part of ESPN’s Top 100 MLB Players for 2021

    6. Jacob deGrom, SP, New York Mets
    10. Francisco Lindor, SS, New York Mets
    48. Pete Alonso, 1B, New York Mets
    53. Michael Conforto, OF, New York Mets
    58. Jeff McNeil, 2B/OF, New York Mets

    From a crude statistical POV, given that there are exactly 30 ML teams, a randomly chosen squad should expect probably 3 (or possibly 4) entries. Mets have only 5, including 2 that, if left off such lists, would question the sanity of the picker (non-nose type)

    This stinks as much as ESPN.
    Agree/disagree and por que?

    • ChrisF

      Who else would you put on there Mr Math?

      Catcher? McCann – maybe?
      3B? Davis – no
      LF? Smith – no (not even an every day player)
      CF? Nimmo – no

    • Bob P

      I don’t have a major issue with those 5 and where they are, except that I don’t understand why deGrom is behind Cole – that makes no sense to me. The obvious omission for me from this list is Nimmo, who continues to be underrated by most. The only other one that comes to mind as being left off is Diaz, and I can’t argue too hard for him after his 2019 season, even though 2020 was excellent.

    • TJ

      According to that ranking, they also have 5 of the top 58…the law of averages suggest two…that leaves them well above average statistically speaking…and all that will get you nothing more than having 5 of the top 58 on the stink list.

      • TexasGusCC

        TJ, always raising the bar! Good point buddy.

  • Woodrow

    Glass half full or half empty? Makes a big difference. Will Lugo, Carrasco and Thor come back guns blazing and the Mets run up a commanding lead by the All Star break or are they hampered by their time off and maybe break down again? My guess is the former, a 95 win season and maybe a WS against the Yanks.

  • Wobbit

    The Mets are far from a WS contender.

    First, they have to change their culture. They tend to underachieve, and they still lack that Lenny Dykstra-type person who will go above and beyond. Lindor is a nice step, but if he remains unsigned, it’s not quite full-throated. They still need a guy that makes the other team crap their pants.

    Second, they need to be aggressive and put tangible pressure on their opponents. That includes mounting comebacks in late innings, taking extra bases all the time, and driving in runs with two out. I don’t think they are equipped yet in these departments.

    They need to be unpredictable and skill-competent. Get runners in from third with one out… squeeze, double-steal, have plays that they can actually execute to succeed in key situations. I’m not sure if anyone on the team can actually lay down a bunt… a key offensive skill component. Can they actually nail a runner on the bases…

    Almost all nice-guy personalities: Nimmo, Conforto, Smith, Alonzo, Lindor, Stroman, even DeGrom. Can use an enforcer to scare somebody… McCann?

    • TexasGusCC

      Thor! The only one with the balls to send a message and then dare the other team in the press to have a problem with it.

    • MattyMets

      Wabbit, you just made me realize what Familia and Betances are good for. If there’s ever a bench clearing brawl, I’m hiding behind these two!

      I think you’re overthinking and underselling this team. Last year was bizarre so let’s look at 2019 when we just missed the playoffs. Most of that team is intact, we upgraded at catcher, shortstop and the bench and have more pitching depth. Adding Lindor to an already strong lineup is big. McCann may not be an all-star, but unlike Ramos, he can throw out runners, make plays at the plate, frame, and not clog up the bases when he gets on or hit into countless rally killing double plays.

      I agree that Rojas has to step up. He has to know which relievers to use and be smart about defensive replacements. This team is talented and has terrific clubhouse chemistry and energy. I hesitate to say WS because the Dodgers are on their own level, but I see this as a 95 win team that gets to the NLCS.

  • Metsense

    The opening day roster is taking shape but there is still some decisions. Lucchesi won the rotation spot. Montgomery is better then Gsellman at this point as the multi inning long reliever and he is a lefty. The Mets are high on Barnes and he doesn’t have options so he might make it. If they can’t IL Betances then he will make it also. That is what $ 6M earns you a second chance. Both Barnes and Betances will have to produce to stay because the Mets don’t have roster flexibility with them not producing. I would have Tarpley than Barnes on the opening roster.

  • Wobbit

    An article I read today about pitching coach Hepner helping Barnes develop his arsenal bears consideration. I know in my bones that Barnes is a better bet than Gsellman, and I like Montgomery more than Familia or Betances.

    Lets hope the FO can find a taker for veteran RH bullpen guys, especially if Mets eat the bulk of the salaries

  • Wobbit

    Those of you who agree with the Mets winning 95 games… I’m wondering how they will reach 28 games over .500.

    In a tough division, it could be considered reasonable to expect a wash… .500 against the Braves, Nats, Phils and Marlins… that’s 76 games! So let’s say 38-38. That means in the ensuing 86 games, they will need to go 57-29…. almost 2-1 (.667 winning percentage). Against the Dodgers, Padres, Cardinals, Cubs, and Yankees,… where are they gonna get all those wins?

    I’ll gladly take 90 wins (still tough)… in a heartbeat… but 95?… can’t see it.

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