The season starts in seven days and there are still at least three projections that should be done. So, let’s go ahead and look at Brandon Nimmo. The Spring Training marvel and the on-base machine still has his detractors, although at least no one dismisses him as a fourth outfielder anymore. Well, that’s not 100% true, as lots of people want him to be platooned. It’s funny how no one ever says this about Michael Conforto, even though Nimmo has a higher lifetime OPS versus LHP and has a 30-point edge this Spring.

What most people really ding Nimmo for is his defense. The question is if Nimmo is merely below-average in center field or if he’s one of the worst guys in the majors at the position, like he was in 2020. It’s likely the Mets can live with the former. If it’s the latter then the critics will be out in full force. If Nimmo hits like he did when healthy the past three years, he’ll play somewhere even if his defense in CF forces him away from the center of the diamond. Let’s see what the computer models predict for him in 2021:

ATC – 530 PA, .249/.374/.432, 17 HR, 52 RBIs
BAT – 525 PA, .247/.363/.415, 15 HR, 55 RBIs
MtM – 529 PA, .252/.381/.452, 18 HR, 53 RBIs
RCh – 583 PA, .256/.389/.452, 19 HR, 57 RBIs
STE – 524 PA, .243/.378/.418, 15 HR, 53 RBIs
ZiPS – 498 PA, .244/.373/.437, 16 HR, 49 RBIs

These forecasts are all pretty similar, with the PA discrepancy between ZiPS (498) and RotoChamp (583) being really the only thing to jump out. On one hand, you would think that the leadoff hitter for an offense expected to be one of the best in the league would be forecasted for more PA than what we see here. On the other hand, we have the truncated 2020, the injury-shortened 2019 and a 2018 where he had to establish himself as a full-time player. Still, if these same six projections could get Dominic Smith, who has yet to reach 200 PA in an MLB season, to an average of 535 PA, you’d think they could get Nimmo to 600.

Of course, projection models don’t care about things like that.

Instead, they see a guy entering his age-28 season who’s never topped 535 PA. The playing time estimates for the models makes sense. What’s a little bit more interesting is why the player who put up a .404 OBP in both 2018 and 2020 and who notched a .483 SLG in ’18 and a .484 SLG in ’19 is projected to have an OBP at least 15 points – and as much as 41 points – lower and a SLG at least 32 points lower. It made more sense for bearish projections in 2020, when the injury numbers of 2019 were most recent. It’s my opinion that the 2019 results are being given too much weight. If somehow the models can view Smith’s 199 PA in 2020 as a full season, they should be able to do the same with Nimmo and his 225 PA and .888 OPS last year.

Throughout his career, Nimmo has produced excellent OBP marks. He’s done this with great walk numbers and with a BABIP that brings to mind David Wright’s output in the category. Entering the 2020 season, Nimmo had a .342 lifetime BABIP. His .326 mark in 2020 ended up being 16 points below his then-career average. Yet of the four systems on FanGraphs that show BABIP, two forecast him with a .309 BABIP and the other two have him with a .308 mark.

BABIP can be a volatile number. Even Wright fluctuated between a .302 and a .394 number in the category among seasons with at least 100 games played. But in those 10 years with at least 100 games played, Wright topped his lifetime .339 BABIP seven times. It seems ultra conservative to me to forecast Nimmo for a BABIP 30 points below his career average.

One of my criticisms of Luis Rojas last year was his rush to turn Nimmo into a platoon player based on an incredibly small sample. Nimmo’s gotten the opportunity to play against some LHP this Spring but the results have not been great, even with his triple the other day. However, Nimmo’s results against portsiders is still better than both Conforto and Smith in Grapefruit League action. It’s prudent to expect Nimmo to be on the bench for some lefties this year. But if the club faces, say, 60 starts by a southpaw, then 20 days off apiece for the three lefty-hitting outfielders would seem to be a reasonable strategy.

With all of the above in mind, here’s my totally biased prediction for Nimmo:

625 PA, .270/.390/.485, 20 HR, 60 RBIs

You’ll have more credibility if you weigh in now with what you expect Nimmo to do this season.

7 comments on “Mets 2021 projections: Brandon Nimmo

  • Metsense

    640 PA , 259/389/444, 21 HR 62 RBI’s

    Pillar is be the 4th outfielder and start against LHP and one of the lefthanded starting outfielders should sit. A Mets outfield should be well rested and productive because of Pillar. Nimmo is playing out of position and so is Smith. The Mets should use defensive replacements on the late innings and move Nimmo to LF.
    Nimmo is an excellent leadoff batter, with a high OBP , runs well and has enough power drive the ball and even get the Mets an early lead. My hope is that Nimmo will eventually end up the Mets leftfielder for years to come.

  • Wobbit

    I’m on board with Brian’s projections. Can’t see Nimmo hitting below .270 nor getting fewer then 600 PA (barring injury). I also think that him sitting 20 times against the tough lefties is very sound strategy. I want Almora and Pillar to get some regular time at the plate. 20-30 starts each would be a good thing.

    Nimmo should benefit from no longer being shifted around the batting order. Clearly the Mets see him as their leadoff man, and players always benefit from consistency. Also, being clear from his neck injury and free to play CF deeper should allow him to drill down on his offense.

    20 HRs is a certain barrier, but well within his reach. I’m thinking he has his best overall season coming up.

  • Footballhead

    Leading off for the Mets….Brandon Nimmo, CF.

    PA 635, BA .268 OBP .395 HR 22 RBI 62
    He’ll walk over 100x, and score over 110x.

  • Paulc

    550 PA, .270/.404/.480, 18 HR, 50 RBI

    One of my unheralded favorites. But I don’t see him increasing his plate appearances due to late inning defensive replacements and periodic mid-season rest days. I love an on-base machine with some pop and a great attitude. Sign this man now to an 8-year deal!

  • BoomBoom

    PA 580, BA .275 OBP .410 SLG .465 HR 17 RBI 60
    100 walks, 140 runs scored (league leader)
    All Star selection

  • TexasGusCC

    In the MVP talk:

    Last year, Nimmo slashed his K% by 1/3 and had it almost even with his BB% at under 20%. So, if the BABIP was below average, think of what happens when he see-saws the other way and adds more contact to the possibilities. By year’s end, Nimmo will be batting third and will be part of the reason the Mets aren’t trying too hard to re-sign Conforto. An insider said two days ago the Mets and Conforto are too far apart to expect a deal.

    .302/.420/.513, 19 HR, 97 RBI, 112 Runs scored, 608 Plate Appearances

  • Steve_S.

    As I’ve made clear, Nimmo is one of my favorite Mets players. I would lock him up with an extension sooner rather than later, as I think his numbers will go up before he is scheduled to hit free agency in 2023.

    I also think that his fielding will improve in CF this year.

    600 PA, .285/.405/.490, 18 HR, 55 RBIs, 0.2 dWAR

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