The Mets have a better team on paper than the Braves. That’s not just my opinion or Matt’s opinion, as FanGraphs has them projected for a higher win total, too. As of this morning, the Mets had 92 projected wins while the Braves had 88. But, if you put a gun to my head and forced me to wager on which team would end up with more wins, my pick would be the Braves.
Now, it would be easy to couch this in professional terms. The Braves are the three-time defending NL East champs and are returning the heart of the team that won the division in a truncated season by four games. And they have the desired combination of experience and youth, as only one player on the roster counted on to be one of their top performers is over the age of 33 – newly-acquired starter Charlie Morton.
But the reality of the situation is that the Braves are consistently better than the Mets in areas that it’s not unreasonable to attribute to … luck. Many of you are getting ready to form rebuttals that if something happens again and again and again, that maybe we shouldn’t count it as luck. So, let’s see if we can meet half way.
In areas that traditionally are viewed in terms of luck, the Braves are consistently fortunate while the Mets are more likely to be the ones having soup dropped on their heads.
Let’s give some examples of that luck. First let’s look at the unexpected offseason acquisition.
In 2020, the Braves signed a free agent who in the previous two years combined for 1,177 PA and a 107 OPS+. So, what does he do for them? He goes out and gives them a 172 OPS+ and finishes sixth in the MVP race.
In 2019, the Braves signed a guy for his age-33 season who in the two previous years combined for 165 games. What does he do for them? Plays in 155 games, delivers 70 XBH and a 124 OPS+
In 2018, right before the start of the year, the Braves signed a pitcher for his age-34 season who was released in Spring Training. In his three previous years, this pitcher had a 74 ERA+ and a 1.427 WHIP. What does he do in Atlanta? He posts a 144 ERA+ and delivers a 1.083 WHIP.
It’s really nice when you have a strong group of players and then add someone to the mix who unexpectedly gives you All-Star numbers. It’s one thing if you sign or trade for someone of the caliber of Francisco Lindor. It’s another thing entirely when you’re adding guys on the margins and end up with production of this type. The closest thing the Mets have to this is 2019 J.D. Davis, who came out of nowhere to put up a 136 OPS+. But Davis was a young guy who exceled when he finally got a chance. These guys for the Braves were either old, injured or average and then turned around to produce far, far better than anyone could have reasonably expected. No one was throwing Davis MVP votes.
If history is a guide, be prepared for an incredible year by Drew Smyly or Pablo Sandoval.
Now let’s look at the unexpected callup
In 2019, this starter had a 6.57 ERA in Triple-A. In 2020, he comes up from the alternate site to post a 1.95 ERA in six starts. David Peterson was good for the Mets last year in a similar position. This guy was significantly better.
In 2017-18 this veteran had 1,074 PA in the majors and posted a .725 OPS. He starts 2019 in the minors and comes up and delivers an .882 OPS in 130 PA. In the last 20 years, the Mets have never gotten that type of production from a veteran called up from the minors with at least 100 PA. The best they’ve done the past two decades was the .772 OPS of Ruben Gotay in 211 PA back in 2007.
In 2018, a former waiver pickup gets promoted in late April and goes on to pitch in 60 games in relief and post a 6-1 record with a 3.11 ERA, good for a 132 ERA+. He would have been the second-best reliever on the Mets with that ERA+.
So, the Braves are starting with a solid or better group of players and then they’re adding a free agent who plays out of his mind and then they call up a guy from the minors who performs better than they have any right to expect. And we’re not even counting when they grab someone off the waiver wire like Adeiny Hechavarria and immediately place him in the lineup and he posts a 1.039 OPS in 70 PA.
Every club has success stories like this, with an unexpected free agent signing or a surprise productive callup from the minors or an addition from the waiver wire who plays out of his mind. The difference is that the Braves do it every single year in multiple categories. Travis d’Arnaud can’t stay healthy in parts of seven seasons with the Mets. He joins the Braves, played in three-quarters of their games and wins a Silver Slugger Award.
The only good thing is that very rarely do these players perform like this in multiple years for Atlanta. This year they will be counting on d’Arnaud and Marcell Ozuna to repeat their surprise outstanding performances from a year ago. But does it make a difference if 2020’s unexpected stars don’t repeat if they’re (seemingly) guaranteed to find new unexpected stars?
No one should begrudge the Braves their drafted/signed and developed stars. Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman and company are legit. But the Mets can counter with Pete Alonso, Jacob deGrom and Brandon Nimmo. If the Mets lose the division because Christian Pache and Austin Riley come up from their system and perform like stars, we should all tip our caps to them.
It’s just exasperating when they get outstanding results from unexpected places year after year after year. The Braves are a good organization and no doubt some of you feel they’ve “earned” their luck. And maybe you feel like the Mets have “earned” their bad luck here, too. Maybe this explains some of the results; I’m quite certain it doesn’t explain all of it.
One last log for the fire. Despite the old conventional wisdom that certain players just know how to hit with RISP, many more times than not, this is a fluke performance on a year-to-year basis. In 2007, David Wright had a .976 OPS with RISP. In 2008 he posted a .703 mark. And those were neither a career best nor a career worst in the category. RISP on a yearly basis is a small sample. Sometimes the hits are going to fall in and sometimes they’re not and it makes no difference if the player is Wright or someone who’s not nearly as talented.
More times than not, when you get a hit with a RISP, you’re going to drive in a run. In the last five full seasons (2015-19), here are the runs scored with RISP for the Braves and Mets from best to worst:
Braves – 568, 560, 551, 508, 464 – Average of 530 per year
Mets – 538, 485, 481, 476, 423 – Average of 481 per year
Some of this is because the Braves have had better players. Some of this is because they’ve had more opportunities with RiSP. And, yes, some of this is just luck.
Yes, a certain segment of you will be saying this is nothing but a loser’s lament. Those who win don’t talk about luck. But let’s face it – some people hit a triple and some people are born on third base. Maybe the Braves weren’t born on third base. But if they hit a triple, it’s the type that Dominic Smith hit Friday against the Nationals. It was a ground ball to first that Josh Bell did an unsuccessful matador swipe at that proceeded to bounce around in the bullpen down the right field line, making it difficult for the outfielder to corral.
We’re well past the time for the Braves’ triple to be the 3U play it was supposed to be.
It’s hard to attribute but there’s clearly “something in the water.” The Mets have had way too many free agent busts over the years and the Braves have a knack for getting the best seasons and bounceback seasons from veteran players. Maybe it’s coaching, scouting, analytics or just a culture of winning. Hopefully with the Wilpons gone the Mets can purify their water supply.
I attribute the Braves consistency and their tendency to get more from every player to superior organization and management. Bobby Cox and Leo Mazzoni just had an edge to their players and their expectations that the Mets’ management never seemed to have. Their front office also does better homework than the Mets counterparts.
In other words, an alignment of the front office with the on-field team leadership helps keep everyone on the same page and makes it easier to find pieces that will fit and will flourish. Former Mets’ brass always seemed disconnected, even at odds with the very insecure front office… essentially three independent islands working counter-productively… it showed up on the field.
Hopefully, we start a new narrative this year.
Better analytics would be my first thought. Luck generally evens out over time so there has to be something more to it. Hopefully the Mets enhanced analytics department will help swing the pendulum back our way.
I like where the Mets are right now but the Braves are the defending champs and are routinely underestimated in pre-season win predictions.
What an entertaining, humorous, yet thoughtful and true piece. I guess what makes it humorous is it appears to be like a rant with facts. What makes it thoughtful is it’s true. Let’s cut it up. As others have paraphrased above, to quote Hall of Fame coach Jimmy Johnson, “The harder I work, the luckier I get.” Or to quote Hall of Fame coach Pat Riley, “Luck is the residue of design”.
As for Josh Donaldson, he came back healthy and productive for a month in Cleveland, but everyone was afraid to give him a big contract. Towards the end of the off season, the Braves said that we will give you a year at a high rate and try your luck again at free agency next year. He said ok. Did the Mets offer this? We don’t know.
As for TDA, he went back to his minor league hitting coach for the Blue Jays that was now hitting coach for the Rays. The coach got rid of some bad habits that the Mets weren’t able to get rid of, and he did well for Tampa. Let’s not forget, the analytically advanced Dodgers cut him after one plate appearance after the Mets. The Braves saw the Rays results and pounced. He continued the success.
As for Ozuna, he has always been a good offensive player, but players in their walk years seem to have extra inspiration – call it the Boras factor?
As for Anibal Sanchez and his one year in Atlanta, the Nats then signed him for three years and he did well the first year then crapped the bed the next two.
Moral to the story: only sign lottery tickets for one year, and don’t give them player options BVW. Can anyone explain Jed Lowrie? Does anyone know what he had because it appears the Mets didn’t.
The Braves had some luck by reaching for guys who showed something the year before and paid them a bit more for one year or just possibly allowed players to be secondary pieces to stars like FFF and Acuna, and without the added pressure and lack of 20,000 beat writers, these players exceled. Maybe they are the Patriots of MLB but as we saw last year with the Pats, everyone’s lucky rabbit’s foot runs out of mojo when you let the wrong piece leave. We just don’t know if it will take twenty years for that to happen.
By the way, that doesn’t stop on the field. David Sterns came from the Mets, so did the GM in Cleveland.
Thanks Gus – I appreciate it!
The player option – or extra year – is sometimes the cost of doing business. Jed Lowrie was coming off two really good years. I accept the fact that it took a two-year deal to get him. Dellin Betances and the player option is the one I have trouble with. If he signed a really low deal, that would be one thing. But he would have gotten $10.5 million if 2020 was a full season. A player option on top of that should have been a deal killer.
A 107 OPS+ for a starting OF is not a good offensive season. In fact, it’s below average. There were 49 outfielders to amass 500 PA in 2019 and a 107 OPS+ ranked you tied for 31st. And for what it’s worth, the starting OF with the worst OPS+ in 2019 was our pal Mallex Smith, who had a 73. The next worst was Lorenzo Cain with an 81.
The Mets didn’t need Lowrie. It was stupid to begin with. And after wearing the biggest leg brace ever made for two years he just became the starting second baseman on the A’s? That the Mets couldn’t figure out what was wrong with him being isn’t suspicious to you?
On Ozuna, he got a four year deal. I suspect that OPS+ will come down to career average levels this year. I can’t believe they gave him four years. Ahhh, the Boras factor…
As Metsense writes below: Good organizations make good decisions, and… you get the idea.
Gus,
I will second your compliments on the article.
Given the diligent assembly of facts regarding the Braves run of luck, I would say that the law of averages suggests that they may be “due” for an opposite run of say, 20 years or so. Given my current age and expected lifespan, I am strongly hoping that this adjustment would occur in the next 20 years, effective immediately.
The Braves are an good organization and have youth and experience.
The Mets were owned by the Wilpons. Enough said.
I’d like to see the Mets have a solid strategy to beat the Braves in their 19 games. First thing that comes to mind is testing TDA behind the plate. I never thought much of his defense nor his throwing arm, and this might be a key chink in their armor.