The Mets have famously melted as summer has set in, known as the June Swoon.   Noah Syndergaard threw 97 on Saturday and is projected to return in June.  Will he prevent a June Swoon, or better, will he even have to?

Spring Training is all but over. The roster is set, and everyone knows who is going North. Players have established their positions, and it is clear who will be where – in part thanks to Robinson Cano.  Even the rotation is in good shape as the season begins.

In case you have missed it, the roster is loaded with youth, without being inexperienced. The oldest position player is 32.  That’s quite a change from Mets history.  The last time the Mets team was as young was 1998. This year, instead of having a couple of 22-year-olds and a couple of 35-year-olds, the roster is right in the meaty part of the development curve.

The aging curve is a critical tool is player projections.

As with all baseball research, this is constantly under scrutiny in an effort to “guess” right on breakout players and making sure you aren’t extending a contract to someone on the downside of their career.

The 2021 New York Mets are smack dab in the 25-29 range with practically every starter on offense. The Mets team is primed for a strong season.

In addition to being “the right age,” the Mets are also talented. A peak age of mediocre performance still yields mediocre performance. In this case, every Met starter has shown All-Star performance levels, suggesting the team should see good sustainable offense.

This has been borne out in the projections, with the Mets being the consensus favorites, landing in the 92-93 win range, while the rest of the division, mostly the Atlanta Braves in second, behind by 2-8 wins. The Mets upside, based on performance distribution range, shows the Mets with a good shot at 97-100 wins as well, with the lower end around 85 wins.  With the current playoff arrangements and the quality of the NL teams in general, the Mets are poised for a solid playoff run.

More importantly, in keeping the core of the team together: Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, J.D. Davis, Dominic Smith, Brandon Nimmo, and looking to sign longer term, Francisco Lindor and Michael Conforto, the next few years should be good for the Mets.

The pitching staff is still anchored by Jacob deGrom who has shown up this spring as dominant as ever. Marcus Stroman opted out last season and has looked good during his outings. One issue the Mets hit was newly acquired Carlos Carrasco went from a sore hamstring to a torn hamstring, meaning he will be out 6-8 weeks, largely unavailable until May at least.  The Mets will have to rely more heavily on Tijuan Walker’s comeback and David Peterson’s development, as well as inserting LHP Joey Lucchesi into the rotation.

The Mets biggest pitching issue the last few seasons has been an unstable bullpen. Not with the roles and players, but the performances.  Having deGrom throw a 7 inning, 3-hit gem has little meaning if the bullpen surrenders the lead and the game. You can see it in deGrom’s W-L records.  Starters tend to get a decision for every 9 innings they pitch, and the last few seasons he is woefully below that rate, pointing the finger two key items – run and bullpen support.

Edwin Diaz claims the new ball is going to be better for him, and some Statcast pitch movement data suggest he may be back.  Unfortunately, Dellin Betances and Jeurys Familia have both struggled with control this spring so there are still potential bumps in the road.

One of the best tools for assessing the team is reviewing positions broadly compared to the league.

In this list, it is evident the Mets struggled with pitching, and the bullpen was the biggest issue there.  Even going back a season, the Mets offense was average, the starting pitching was excellent, and the bullpen gave away 3 wins. Do not look at 2018, for your health.

With every projection putting the Mets as the favorites, a healthy and peaking offense, a solid and improving rotation – Syndergaard in June – and a fingers-crossed bullpen, 2021 should be a good year for Mets fans, and the team construct, if the Lindor deal can get done, the next few will be as well.

6 comments on “Noah Syndergaard and the Mets’ defense against a June Swoon

  • Ike

    How dare you charge Met fans to talk about their team on your website if you want to charge money you shouldn’t be on here you should be a separate entity all together

    • Brian Joura

      I think you tried to tell me off but your writing was so incredibly poor I’m not really sure. Anyway, if you don’t like it, don’t let the door hit you on the way out. The whole reason to have a pay site was to get rid of people like you.

    • MikeW

      I will gladly pay for access to this site. It has the best in depth articles on the web. Let’s go Mets360!

  • Wobbit

    The Mets are clearly a better team than they were a year ago. The aging curve is very good to see. And while I did not see the bullpen’s bad day yesterday, including Diaz’s first poor stat line, I expect better things from it.

    The question will continue to be how well Luis Rojas gets his team to play on a daily basis. Good teams do the little things that win games. I will be watching to see if the Mets do those things.

  • Wobbit

    If one needs a reason to value this site, just look at any of the other Mets’ sites. The articles here are serious and studied, and the contributors are respectful and thoughtful. I can write my thoughts without feeling like I will be trashed… we all just want to have fun and express our interest in the team… what better site to do it on?… none better.
    Glad to help pay the expenses for the privilege.

  • Footballhead

    Sorry to be late for this reply; even in retirement, one sometimes finds themselves busy or engaged in projects. I will be honest and admit that I had a pause when Brian asked for $$$ to be able to login to read and provide feedback, but I’m glad I overcame my “cheapness” and signed up. What was it, the cost of a meal to be part of a fun and engaging activity? Well worth it and no regrets.

    Thank you Mr. Joura for establishing and maintaining this site, and to the vast majority of subscribers and contributors that makes this site my # 1 go to place for all things Mets.

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