The 2021 Mets were, by many accounts (ahem), predicted to field a potent offense in addition to a potentially elite pitching staff and solid overall depth. The rotation has thus far been as advertised, leading the league in xFIP and second only to the Dodgers in fWAR. The bullpen has some work to do, to say the least, and the depth has been plenty helpful so far this year as well. The offense has been the one aspect of the team expected to be a strength that has disappointed the most.

The Mets are near the bottom of the league in runs per game this season, and the relevant point highlighted the most has been their poor performance with runners in scoring position. Their .195 batting average with RISP is better than only Cleveland, though diving just a bit deeper presents an even more damning picture. The team’s Run Scoring Percentage (percentage of the time a baserunner eventually scores) of 23% is the worst in baseball, and they’re right near the bottom of the league in total number of baserunners generally. In short, not only do they not get runners on base, they fail to bring them in when the rare opportunity presents itself.

The Mets are tied with the Nationals for fewest games played this season, and recently a lot has been made of this fact when noting that the team hasn’t been able to get into a groove. I can buy that to an extent, and it certainly affects counting stats like total number of baserunners. They’ve only played one fewer game than the next four teams above them, though, and two fewer than the next eleven. The stops and starts would surely wreak havoc on any professional athlete, but it’s a shaky justification at best and one that completely dismisses the fact that the rotation hasn’t seemingly been affected.

I thought a lot about what may be causing such failure with RISP. Are they simply getting unlucky with RISP (not particularly)? Are they not making much contact in general (they’re top five in baseball in Contact%)? Are they failing to make medium/hard contact (no)? Are they swinging at pitches outside the zone at an abnormally high rate, thereby inducing weaker contact or striking out more (no and no)? Are they facing the shift at a high rate (kind of, actually)?

They’re putting the ball on the ground at a high rate, as well as pushing to the opposite field at one of the highest rates in baseball. This is an interesting data point, I think, and perhaps one tied to either an organizational philosophy of hitting the ball the other way or (more likely) the players simply being out of sorts and unable to recognize pitches early enough. That latter point, admittedly, could at least have something to do with the stop/start schedule and missed games. Even so, there really appears to be a very simple explanation for the Mets’ inability to knock in runs: most of their best hitters have been pretty lousy this season.

Jacob deGrom leads the team in wRC+, and it’s not particularly close. Beyond deGrom simply being otherworldly (and small sample sizes), that’s truly an indictment of the current state of the team’s offense. The Mets’ ace almost had to do it all by himself again last night, and despite going 3/10 with RISP the team still left eight runners on base.

Five of their regular starters are hitting well below average to start the season. Why have Francisco Lindor, Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil, James McCann, and Dominic Smith been so bad to start the season? Are we really going to point at a handful of lost games, or is this simply an odd alignment of slow starts? Only Lindor can point to bad luck with a minuscule BABIP of .213, though diving into specific issues at the heart of their collective troubles merits a separate article.

On the topic of poor performance with RISP, it should not come as a shock to anyone that their worst performers with RISP are the same five culprits (and Pete Alonso hasn’t been much better). It’s really a classic case of Occam’s razor at this point in the season, though the collective failure could be seen as fairly anomalous. When the majority of your lineup is performing so poorly at the same time, the results tend to be bad no matter the situation. To be perfectly fair, the Mets were in the bottom third of baseball with RISP last season as well. Still, it’s fair to expect their performance in these situations will improve as their overall production improves. The starting pitching is bound to hit some snags this season, and a lineup with so much potential will need to pick up the slack if the team truly hopes to compete.

2 comments on “Slow starts have stymied Mets’ run production

  • Wobbit

    The nice thing about having a fairly strong lineup, especially when aligned with good stating pitching, is that the team can be successful with only one or two guys getting hot. So now it’s Nimmo with Alonso, and if one other guy gets hot, you win close ballgames. Later, another guy or two gets hot and you go another stretch.

    The concern is which of the three underperforming LH hitters is getting mired at this early season juncture. McNeil has not hit the ball hard, Dom is hitting ground balls, and Conforto is not even making his customary hard outs. Hard to say what it will take for any of them to bust out, or when?

    Mets have been fortunate thus far… they miss Scherza and Stasborg (IL) this week, and next week miss Evoldi and Rodriguez (tough lefty). On the other hand, Phillies manage to miss DeGrom… too bad.

  • Metsense

    The Mets are in the last place in RISP with a .195 BA. Nimmo is the third best hitter with a .500 BA. Nimmo is carrying 21% of the bulk.The mean average in the NL is .235. If the Mets would have had five more hits then they would be average. Also 5-10 runs would have been scored.The mean average in OPS is .732 . the Mets at .571 OPS are again in last place. The Reds are unconscious with a .349 BA and a .969 OPS. If the Mets did that they could be printing World Series tickets now! Let’s start first by being average in RISP.

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