Sean Reid-Foley was a second-round pick by the Toronto Blue Jays in 2014. Prior to 2017, Reid-Foley was considered a top 100 prospect in Baseball. By the 2020-2021 offseason, Reid-Foley was a part of a package of three players that the Blue Jays sent to the Mets for Steven Matz, who was awful during the Covid-shortened 2020 season. That’s a far fall for a former second-round pick and top 100 prospect.
Yet, after five innings as a long man for the Mets in 2021, Reid-Foley has allowed two hits, no runs and struck out seven batters. Obviously Reid-Foley will allow a run some time in the future, but his success so far is a good indicator that the Mets bullpen is on the rise.
Bullpens are a finicky thing. In the 1950’s, they barely existed. They were, with very few exceptions, where veteran pitchers stretched out their careers when their stuff was gone, or where lesser arms filled in gaps when the starting pitcher was blown out. By the end of the 1960’s, closers had become important parts of bullpens, but only if they could go a few innings and it still remained the final resting place for former starters who couldn’t go seven to nine any more.
Slowly though, bullpens became a big part of the game. The first group of hall of fame closers came to prominence in the 1970’s, with the likes of Goose Gossage and Rollie Fingers and solidified in the 1980’s. By the 1990’s, the bullpen was as important a part of a pitching staff as a starter was and in the modern game, when starters rarely go beyond the 7th inning any more, it’s as vital as ever.
However, regardless of the importance of the bullpen, the starting rotation is still the place that the best and most consistent pitchers end up. Due to this, relief pitchers effectiveness can be a very erratic thing. Take Kirby Yates for example. By the time the San Diego Padres selected him off of waivers from the Los Angeles Angels in April of 2017, Yates was a 30 year old journeyman with a career ERA of nearly five and a half who had allowed 21 home runs in 98 career innings, including two home runs in his only appearance in 2017. Yates would pitch well for the Padres in 2017 and then develop into one of the best closers in baseball by the end of 2019. In 2020, Yates posted a 12.46 ERA in six appearances, left the Padres as a free agent and now can’t get off of the disabled list.
Yates is one of many stories that make bullpens such a hard thing to not only develop, but remain consistent. A reliever can be great one year and awful the next. After all, most of these guys are unsuccessful starters with one or two great pitches and often massive control issues. They thrive on throwing hard, throwing the ball all over the zone and hoping that maximum effort makes up for a true pitching approach.
Despite this, when bullpens are successful, there are several signs about how successful the bullpen can be and if it can maintain success. This is why Reid-Foley’s early success is such a good indicator. Reid-Foley is the classic failed starting prospect with good stuff who just couldn’t make it in a starting rotation. He’s also not being asked to carry a heavy load, as evidenced by the fact that he didn’t pitch for nearly 13 days until his appearance against the Cardinals on May 3rd. Yet players like Reid-Foley and Robert Gsellman, another failed starter who has pitched well in the early going in a low leverage role, are good indicators of long term bullpen success. When long men like Gsellman and Reid-Foley are successful, it allows a manager to have some level of confidence in those players when the starting pitcher can’t get past the fourth or fifth inning. That then allows the relievers at the back end of the bullpen to not be overused and to fall into roles.
Bullpens very much function that way. A closer wants to close, a set up man gets used to working in the 8th inning, a left hander gets used to coming into the game against tough left handed hitters, etc. When those roles become less certain (the closer has to come into the eighth, the eighth inning guy has to come into the sixth, the lefty has to face too many righties, etc) is when bullpens start to flounder.
Right now the Mets have five key relievers that are pitching well. Edwin Diaz sports a 4.22 ERA, but has gotten a bit unlucky and his secondary numbers have been pretty on point. Jeurys Familia looks dominant again. Aaron Loup has allowed four base runners in six innings and hasn’t allowed a run. Miguel Castro and Trevor May, the two headed set up men for Diaz, have struck out a combined 32 batters in 19 innings with a nearly seven to one strikeout to walk ratio. If the likes of Reid-Foley, Gsellman and Jacob Barnes can hold their own and fill in during those games when the starter can’t go deep or the other arms have just pitched too many games in a row, it will buffer the others from overuse, or over exposure.
Look, will Reid-Foley become an elite bullpen arm? Who knows, but right now his early success is nothing but a positive for not only his career, but for the health and success of the Mets bullpen as a whole. The team has issues, but right now Reid-Foley and his bullpen mates are not one of them.
I’ve watched Miguel Castro throw everything consistently down in the zone. His nasty nasty stuff has made him almost untouchable except for Sunday night. If he can stay there, he presents a huge piece, maybe better than Diaz. Still, the Mets need another LH arm for the later innings.
I’m not sure the fanbase will ever truly trust Diaz. I’d be tempted to find some team that thinks he will find his groove with a change of scenes.
Since the Mets need Matt Chapman or Kris Bryant in the future, maybe package up Diaz, JD, and Dom… nice deal.
Wobbit, if the Mets did trade for Chapman or sign Bryant as a free agent, what do you think they should do with Mauricio, Baty, and Vientos?
So many right conclusions in this good article. Defined roles should be the goal. High or low pressure situations should dictate use. Rest, use and the upcoming schedule are factors also. Fans should realize that relievers give up runs. Primary relievers shouldn’t be wasted in low pressure situations. The manager should have trust in secondary relievers in low pressure situations. At this point, the Mets bullpen is good and because it is good then the manager should manage it accordingly. Gsellman and Reid-Foley should get some more multi inning low pressure opportunities. They earned it and it would save the primary relievers for when it counts.
I love those minor league prospects, James. But Bryant and Chapman would be “now” guys, and prospects will fit in as, if and when they develop. With Lindor locked in, Mauricio is forced to play somewhere else on the field. I have not heard that Baty is that close to arriving. Vientos, again, will find a place if his talent warrants that he plays…
Would you turn down a Bryant or Chapman for these up-and-coming considerations? I’d like to see the Mets get the better part of several deals (never happened before?) in order to take their rather misshapen, disjointed roster and transform it into a well-designed team, with quality pieces in their right positions.
You raise all the right points and questions. I’d love to see the Mets win now, but I’ve seen them win over the past five decades and collapse again once the stars fade, which is because their farm system was not prepared to replace them. You can only sign a certain number of superstars b/c of the luxury tax and the impact on signing amateurs from America and internationally if the ‘cap’ is repeatedly and significantly violated. I want to see the Mets succeed for a decade or more, making the playoffs every year. I know you do too. So there has to be a balance between moving older players out as they begin to fade and bringing in young studs to replace them. FWIW, re;ga;rdless of his recent struggles, I was not altogether in favor of the Lindor trade. Given Cleveland’s situation, we gave up quite a bit of talent, but that wasn’t my issue. Mine was the ten+ year contract he demanded. It will make it much harder for the Mets to maneuver with players and salaries when he starts to fade, see the once transcendent Albert Pujols.
Depth,thank goodness we have depth.DeGom goes down we move Castro our second best reliever to starter.
Nice piece Scott, but the Tampa rays last year used Nick Anderson – their best reliever – in high pressure situations whether they were in the seventh, eighth or ninth innings. That’s how I would hope a bullpen can be used. More games are lost in the seventh and eighth than the ninth inning. I’m not a fan of having one guy close unless he’s Mariano Rivera and I don’t see that player on the Mets.
This is not to contradict your article, because I’ve heard the same point made many times in different media, but my preference would be the Tampa way.
Great piece. I have no confidence in Barnes, but the rest of the pen has been a pleasant surprise. Imagine how much better it will be when Lugo comes back?! Can’t wait. And when Carrasco and Syndergaard come back, Peterson can become a 6th starter/long man and maybe Luchessi with his 2-pitch repertoire and mastery against lefties can find a home in the pen.