At what point do we throw preseason expectations out the window and focus simply on what’s happened in the current season? Before the year started, it was thought that the NL East was going to be one of the best divisions in baseball, if not the best. It was thought that four teams would have a legitimate shot at winning the division and that the fifth wouldn’t be anywhere close to the pushover that it had been recently. Instead, we only have one team over .500 and most people believe the East has no chance of securing one of the two Wild Card berths.
While people feel that way, projections systems/forecasts still give them a puncher’s chance. As of yesterday afternoon, FanGraphs had NL East teams making the Wild Card 22.2% of the time while this morning – not sure when they update – FiveThirtyEight had NL East clubs claiming a Wild Card 19% of the time.
Right now the two Wild Card teams are the Padres at 34-22 and the Dodgers at 32-23. Most people expected those two clubs to make the playoffs but with one winning the division. Instead, the Giants are leading the West with a 34-21 mark. No one thought much of the Giants coming into the season. Caesars Sportsbook had their over/under at 74.5 wins. ESPN had 37 people make preseason predictions and not one of them thought the Giants would win the division and only one of 37 had them claiming a Wild Card spot.
Right now FanGraphs has the Giants finishing the year with 86 wins, meaning they expect them to go 52-55 the remainder of the season. And they still have 17 games against the D’Backs and 10 against the Rockies. Incredibly, at least to me, FG has the Giants making the playoffs just 49.4% of the time. FiveThirtyEight has them with a 49% shot to make the playoffs, too. Baseball-Reference gives them a 91.6% chance, which seems much more likely to me for a team with a +62 run differential and a top-five ranking in both runs scored and runs allowed.
It seems to me that B-R is putting much more weight on what’s happened in 55 games this season than the projections coming into the year.
Is B-R right? With one-third of the season in the books, can we no longer call what guys well on the wrong side of 30 like Brandon Crawford (136 OPS+), Evan Longoria (145) and Buster Posey (178) are doing flukes? How about Kevin Gausman with a 273 ERA+? It sure seems likely that these guys will fall back some. Or maybe it’s the last hurrah for all three hitters and a coming out party for Gausman and they maintain strong rates through the remainder of the season.
OK, well I’ll put myself on the chopping block and say that I am really impressed by the Metsies’ performance this year. Considering all the injuries to key players, anyone would have presumed they’d be doing much worse. They’ve collected a bunch of AAA rejects from other teams who are coalescing into a group who support each other, have a positive attitude and seem to get along really well, even though they must realize they’ll be discarded as soon as the regulars start to reappear. Also, I think this is their best chance ever to finally have one of theirs named the NL MVP for 2021
In spite of all the technology and algorithms, the game is still played between the lines, and part of its beauty is the component of unpredictability. That component may be reduced by data, information, shifts, spin rates, etc., but it is still present. Additionally, coming of an unprecedented pandemic-shortened season I think adds even more uncertainty. Are these older guys “fresher” given the reduced work in 2020, or are they more susceptible to fading through the dog days? Will the rash of early season injuries diminish or increase? Will the hitting catch up to “rested” pitching that fades late? Each team and division has similar and unique questions. The Mets have these challenges combined with a tighter schedule than any other team driven by COVID and weather cancellations. Getting a “fresh” Carrasco, (fingers crossed) some late games from Syndergaard, and Lindor circa 2017-2019 could hold off the pack…winning the east is almost a requirement at this point. In the west, I still can’t see the Giants topping the Dodgers and Padres, but who knows?
Maybe it’s just me since I’ve not seen a live game on TV in years, but dear lord the broadcast on YouTube is painful to listen to.
The droning announcers are dribbling truly uninteresting drivel. The mic’d ballplayer they were interviewing was showing why ballplayers are considered dull. Commercials that are really highlight reels with a hysterical tenor. The Diamondbacks suck which is demonstrated by winning a mere 5 games in May, why the mega-effort to make their fans feel good? And finally, the chatter from the invited guests, allegedly YouTube creators, was best described as inane.
Hey, I’m a YouTube creator, why wasn’t I invited? Well, my channel, despite 210K views, covers a different topic. As I tell my students when they try every trick in the book to get me to reveal the name of my channel, I just say that it has to do with something which would not interest them at all – good music
OMG, these announcers are claiming that Rojas deserves Manager of the Year because of the Mets’ record despite the injuries. These are the experts?
I love this Mets team. So much heart, so much depth and love the improved defense. Imagine how good this team can be when reasonably healthy?
Heard Bill Pulsipher being interviewed on a podcast the other day. Some interesting bits. Says he was never the same after his elbow injury – mentally or physically. He partly blames the injuries to him, Wilson and Izzy on the new GM and manager in Queens being pressured by ownership to wrest the back pages away from the Yankees who were starting their 3-year WS run. Pulse did his best to keep earning a check through baseball, playing overseas for a while in various leagues. Now he works in road construction and gives some pitching lessons. His two sons both play in college and one is a pitcher.
The Mets avoided a mini disaster with a gutty win today. Losing that middle game of the series was bad enough, but dropping the series would have been a bad omen heading into a tougher part of the schedule.
Although I was David Peterson’s biggest advocate, I am losing my patience with the crap he is bringing to his starts. I can tell in the first inning if he has “nervous feet”… it’s a Steven Matz thing… too twitchy, too nervous, not breathing, rushing rushing. Somebody’s got to get a hold of this kid before he loses it completely. I’m ready to pull the cord and send him to AAA… just not consistent enough for the big leagues. Or maybe he’s the other lefty in the pen.
So good to see Lindor and Dom start to come around. But what’s this about JDDavis having a “set back” in his rehab? Didn’t he just hurt his hand? We’ve lost four of the first 6 batters in the lineup, and they show little sign of returning… I mean, the Bench Mob is cool, but we can only stretch these things so far… Maybe the Mets need to remake their entire physical staff.
Wobbit, I hope this doesn’t turn out to be one of those seasons we’ve seen before where the cavalry we’re waiting for never comes. I think we can look forward to getting McNeil, Conforto, Almora and Guillorme back and hopefully Villar doesn’t land on the IL, but Davis and Nimmo’s injuries look worrisome and who knows when we’ll see Carasco or Syndergaard.
Hey MM… although we know their season numbers will be compromised, McNeil and Conforto, we hope, will return to form in time for the late season needs. If JD can get back soon, he can still salvage a decent season… but a month of ABs are hard to replace. Nimmo, I’m afraid, is just injury prone, and that will hurt his future market value, which could be ok for the Mets if they elect to keep him.
If all of the returning regulars return to reasonably good form, the Mets should be in a very strong position after this season to trade away pieces for more solid members. Kris Bryant or Eduardo Escobar at 3B are huge upgrades, and teams looking to downsize would highly value JDD, Nimmo, McNeil, even Dom.
Conforto is a whole ‘nother dilemma. Mets need to determine if they can count on him in the future. Some bodies are just not up to the daily grind of a baseball season… Conforto’s bank account is fading with each day he spends on IL.
Remember when most of us thought the Lindor deal was a steal. Not just Lindor but Carrasco too and at a reasonable celery too. Starting to wonder if Carrasco is Lowrie Part 2 and if Lindor is Samuel, Baerga, and Almora.