Whenever a team is going good for an extended stretch, invariably someone will say something along the lines of, “and they’re getting big hits from a different guy almost every night.” And it’s always said with some kind of awe, like the only ones allowed to get big hits are your two best players. This feeds into the narrative that your best players are consistent, that they perform within a tight window of performance all season long. In a way, it also says the same thing about your non-stars, too. But the truth is that seasons are made by how long your streaks last, whether those streaks are hot ones or cold ones.
Billy McKinney was drafted by the A’s and made it to the majors with the Yankees, one of four different clubs he’s played with in MLB. In 2019, he got the most playing time in the bigs and he slashed .215/.274/.422 in 276 PA. This year with the Brewers and the Mets, McKinney has been up 178 times and has a .211/.281/.422 line. Essentially, this is who he is. He won’t hit for much AVG but he’ll take a walk and he’s got some pop.
Yet, in his first 47 PA with the Mets, McKinney batted .302 and had a 1.106 OPS, thanks to a .744 SLG. For a baker’s dozen worth of games, McKinney hit like an MVP candidate. He didn’t do that before he joined the Mets – he had a .619 OPS with the Brewers – and in his last dozen games he has a .341 OPS. McKinney is a reserve outfielder who had a two-week hot streak for the Mets and delivered big hits. And it’s not like this is some unusual story. This kind of thing happens all of the time and on every team in the league.
In his first 10 PA this year, Pablo Sandoval hit 3 HR. Since that time, he’s been up 59 times and has a .192/.288/.250 line, yet he’s still treated as some kind of tactical weapon for the Braves to use at any key point in the game. To be fair to Sandoval, the overwhelming number of PA he’s had this year have come as a pinch-hitter and it’s tough to have success in that role. The issue was when he went on a mini hot streak, he wasn’t getting 4 PA a game. And we shouldn’t lose sight of the fact that’s all that was, a mini hot streak.
Before the Braves, the Mets played the Nationals. Yan Gomes is going thru a nice hot streak for the Nats, driving in 12 runs in his last 14 games. Prior to that, Gomes played in 33 games and had 14 RBIs and a .681 OPS. He’s not a reserve like Sandoval or a reserve pressed into full-time duty like McKinney. Gomes is a starter who’s going through a stretch where he’s delivering big hits on a regular basis. He’s in there more for his defense but he’s just as able to come up with a mini hot streak as any other player.
Now let’s look at the other side of the equation, guys who were on extended bad streaks. Two of the most expensive offseason acquisitions for the Mets were James McCann and Francisco Lindor. They were expected to be key contributors on both offense and defense, yet both got off to miserable starts at the plate. Through the club’s first 43 games of the year, McCann had a .514 OPS and Lindor had a .555 mark. It’s not what the Mets anticipated getting from either player and their struggles were a big reason – certainly not the only one – the Mets had so much trouble scoring runs.
Since then, it’s been a different story for those two players.
Lindor has come up 106 times and has an .869 OPS while McCann has been up 80 times and has a .956 OPS. Both of these players’ stretches of good hitting has lasted much longer than McKinney’s did. Not that that’s much of a surprise – their ability to go on lengthy hot streaks is why they got multi-year deals while McKinney is hoping to stay in the majors the rest of the year.
It’s interesting to look at the hot streaks for McCann and Lindor. McCann’s is the type that we usually think of with a hot streak, one where the player is fairly consistent because the hits are falling in at a great rate. In those last 80 PA, McCann has a .465 BABIP, an incredible mark that won’t last for much longer. McCann’s needed that, too, as he’s struck out 27 times in this stretch, a 33.8 K%, a mark that hopefully won’t continue, either.
On the other hand, no one would call what Lindor has done recently as being consistent. He’s started 26 times in this stretch and 10 times he’s taken the collar. It’s why you hear the announcers talk about how he hasn’t put it all together yet. But Lindor also has eight multi-hit games in this span. Lindor’s recent play qualifies as a hot streak compared to what he did the first 43 games of the year. When you go thru a stretch where your OPS is over 300-points higher than what it has been – it’s not wrong to term that a hot streak.
But it’s not exactly correct, either.
From 2015-2019, a span of 3,244 PA, Lindor had an .840 OPS. In that context, an .869 OPS isn’t exactly a hot streak. It’s essentially what you expect the player to produce. But there were certainly some valid concerns that perhaps Lindor was no longer that player. His struggles at the beginning of 2021 came on the heels of 266 PA in 2020 when he put up a .750 OPS.
It will be interesting to see what happens with Lindor going forward. From this point to the rest of the year, will we see a guy with an OPS in the .850 range or will we see a guy in the low .700s? If it’s the former, we’re likely to see a span like McCann is enjoying now, one where the hits fall in at a ridiculous rate. Lindor’s current stretch – however you wish to term it – features a .286 BABIP, one that’s slightly below average instead of 165 points above normal.
Imagine if Lindor has an 80-PA stretch with a .465 BABIP – that would be fun to see. Because he typically does not strike out anything like McCann has done here in his hot stretch, along with the fact that he has more power – Lindor could put up an OPS several hundred points higher than what McCann has done.
Back in 2018, Lindor had such a span. In 78 PA from 4/27-5/13, he had a .453 BABIP and put up a 1.458 OPS or 502 points higher than what McCann is doing now. And it’s not like Lindor never hit a rough patch that season, either. In 25 games from 8/9-9/5, he put up a .587 OPS. Now, that tough stretch was neither as long nor as bad as how he opened 2021. Instead, it just goes to show how there was a wide, wide variance from his worst output to his best. He was nowhere near consistent in 2018, in what has so far been the best season of his career.
The bottom line is that everyone is going to go through stretches where the hits fall in, as well as ones where you can’t seem to buy a hit. A scrub is going to have hot streaks and a star is going to flounder. So, the next time someone marvels at several different guys coming up with big hits, including bench guys, just smile and say, “Sounds like exactly what we should expect.”
I think his embarrassing contract and playing before new fanbase in NYC has to have affected Lindor. His barrel contact rate was truly horrible for his first 150 ABs… and hearing boos in his first few homesteads had to add stress to his game. I’m not giving him a pass, since he asked for the money in unreasonable timing, but it certainly plays into his troubles.
I’ve said all along, he can be somewhat worth the money if he can slash .280/.350/.400 for half of the ten years. If he’s gonna bat #2, he has to hit the ball hard often and strike out less often.
His defense is far less than spectacular… he will be overshadowed by Baez, Tatis. Story, and others.
DRS : Baez 4, Tatis-7, Story -2 and Lindor 6. Lindor isn’t overshadowed by those mentioned, in fact, he is better defensively than those mentioned.
Lindor leads the NL among SS in dWar and in fact, leads the NL. Given that you also don’t like his “demonstrative on-field behavior” and “distracting, overly playful gestures” it’s not a surprise that he doesn’t pass your eyeball test.
It’s a matter of taste I suppose. I’m not a fan of Tatis HR trot and I noticed that Vientos did the stutter step before 3B on a recent HR. But I find Lindor’s upbeat and joyful attitude to be refreshing. He’s not a hot dog. He’s not showing up anyone. He’s having a lot of fun and I appreciate seeing this. I also take cues from how other players treat him, Mets and opponents included. They seem to love him. Anyhow, he’s going to a Met for a long time and I hope that we see a lot more of his electrifying play as he settles in.
Imagine if we’d signed Springer instead. Or had to deal with Bauer’s clown show. No thanks.
Tatis makes spectacular plays. He is an extraordinary athlete. But he blows the routine play often.
Those numbers shock me… the little I’ve watched Storey, he makes every play and is more sure handed than Lindor. Baez is spectacular (if erratic), we know that, and Tatis is just getting settled (some iffy throws). For all the years I watched Jeter begrudgingly, and I know he was not considered a great defender, all he did was make every play. Lindor just needs to be solid defensively with productive offense to make that contract not be an impediment. His demonstrative on-field demeanor, and overly playful and distracting gestures, I guess, we’ll just have to live with… will wear thin if he’s an albatross.
Brian, this is a great piece and leaves me encouraged, especially with Conforto, McNeil, and Nimmo back or nearly so. They are each capable of extraordinary hot streaks, as are Alonso and Dom. Add those to Lindor and McCann and the laws of probability would seem to dictate that at least one if not two or three can be scorching at any given time.
Scott/Alderson did a good job filling their outfield depth with Almora, McKinney , Lee and even the injured Martinez for the fifth outfielder spot because the cupboard was nearly bare (except Vargas) when they took over. McKinney over Almora for the 5th outfielder because of his power.
I am glad that McCann and Lindor followed their disappointing starts with a hot streak. One thing that you can say for them is that their defense was consistent and that is why the Mets are a better defensive team.
The research pertaining to Lindor in this excellent article gives a perspective of what Lindor can do. Thanks Brian.
I was happy with the preseason low cost signing of Almora given the possibility of a bounce back. His offense has been tremendously disappointing, as he looks like an automatic out…even worse than some of the backup catching call ups the Mets have had in recent years. I understand he still has an option, which could keep him tucked away, but even in AAA I would not take away ABs/reps from Lee or Fargas when he returns.
I also agree with giving Lindor and McCann credit for maintaining their defense despite very poor and stressful offensive starts to their respective Met careers. The defense is certainly part of the overall pitching and run prevention success.
I wanted them to keep Heredia as the backup CF. But they signed Almora and then Pillar and cut Heredia after the Pillar signing. If they had signed them in the opposite order, I would have been upset that they chose Almora over Heredia.
I didn’t imagine that Heredia would have an .802 OPS after 149 PA. But I would have gladly wagered that he would have hit better than Almora.
I love McKinney as a backup OF on this team, but we need RH hitting OFs as well. So besides Pillar, we need Almora or Fargas to remain, and/or we throw JDDavis back into LF, where I think he was adequate, despite what the chorus of naysayers might say. That would give them maximum balance at the plate and a solid rotational flexibility.
With that kind of roster, the Mets’ lineup would be enviable in the National League… quality and balance in each spot.