The Mets entered the pre-season with a strong pitching staff, and promising developing bats, but a questionable defensive set. Injuries have diminished the Mets rotation. Injuries slowed the Mets offense, with Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, J.D. Davis, and Jeff McNeil all spending significant time on the sidelines. That is four of the eight bats expected to produce runs this year.

The rotation has performed very well, with Jacob deGrom being otherworldly, Marcus Stroman and Taijuan Walker pitching at the top of their game. What cannot be overlooked though is one of the big reasons for good pitching is good defense. With the loss of the aforementioned offensive players, each is also an average or below defender at their respective positions, so while the offense declined, the defense stepped up, and thus the pitching is stronger. Fewer balls land in the gap for an extra double. Fewer balls get through the infield in key situations.

The Mets have been, the last few seasons (maybe a decade), the bottom of the barrel in defensive runs saved. Not just the stat DRS, but Statcast runs, UZR, RED, and anywhere else you looked. Instead of floundering in the bottom five this year to date, the Mets are in the top five or six.

One might say, “how much can that matter”? For starters, recall that these runs are above average, and every 10 runs represents an extra win. The bottom five in defense have surrendered an extra 25 runs. The Mets have prevented an extra 25. That is 50 runs on defense, which is five wins. Pitching and defense wins championships (they say).

What is going to happen in the coming weeks? Davis starts a rehab assignment this week. Nimmo is not too far behind. McNeil has been sharing time, and Conforto is back in right field. How each gets used going forward could determine will determine the Mets fortunes this season.

The offense is anemic, scoring just 3.6 runs per game, and next to last in the majors. The pitching and defense have matched that exactly, allowing 3.6 runs per game (after last night’s shellacking). Each of the returnees must be weighted for their offense above average and their defense below average.

Strategically, would significant platooning on offense, and aggressive defensive substitutions once the Mets lead prevent any backslide?
Given the pitching staff’s nagging injuries, and the loss of Spider Tack, more offense is going to be necessary. Either the Mets fill-in players must improve on offense will maintaining their good defense, or Davis et al will be stepping in.

The good news is Pete Alonso has begun hitting a bit more. His return from the Injured List at the end of May coincided with the crackdown and foreign substances, and his weakness for breaking balls down seems to have been affected, in a good way. His OPS is up 60 points in June, and he has 15 hits in the last 13 games.

Conforto, on the other hand, is only hitting .136 since returning from injury. Dominic Smith has shown up “in the best shape of his life”, and perhaps that has made him a little more fleet afoot, but his power has been completely sapped. Two things from a player tend to be consistent: their approximate walk rate measured as OBP-BA, and their Isolated power, or ISO, measured as SLG-BA. Smith’s been in the .200-.300 range for ISO, and this year he is at .110.

Lastly, the bullpen has improved (no jinx). It is important to remember that pitching improves when “preventable hits” are not surrendered by a poor ranging defense. The Mets RA/G would be closer to 4.2 with an average defense, and that would mean a far worse record.

3 comments on “Can the defense hold until the offense arrives?

  • SiteAdmin

    Do you think certain Mets pitchers have used illegal substances in the early part of 2021?

  • Woodrow

    Donaldson could be this seasons Cespedes!

  • Wobbit

    Luis Guillorme saves runs. Villar has played over his head… very grateful. Peraza played great. McNeil has been ok, but is likely to diminish. Lindor has been steady, not spectacular. Pillar more than steady. McKinney better than expected. Conforto at the top of his game in the field (arm not so much).
    Dom has gotten by so far… grateful for that, too.

    McCann has been solid, fading a tad as of late. Nido’s injury cost McCann some rest… may show up on the field. I expect some drop off in the second half, but hopefully Luis will value defense enough to keep the best defenders in the field whenever possible.

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