Sometimes it can be hard to remember now, but from 2014-2018, Jeurys Familia was a very good reliever. The only blip in that time period was 2017, when he missed a good chunk of the year with a blood clot in his arm. Familia’s final line that year doesn’t look good but even that’s a bit misleading. He was very good the first 10 games of the year and very good in the final 11. But the few appearances before being sidelined and the first few back from the blood clot blew up his final numbers.
The Mets traded Familia during their big 2018 purge but he was re-signed to a three-year deal prior to the 2019 season by then-new GM Brodie Van Wagenen. Familia was out of shape and horrible in 2019 and in shape and not good in 2020. It led me to suggesting that deep-pocketed new ownership should cut him prior to this season. The thinking was that it’s bad enough having to pay him – no sense adding to the problem by having to deal with the results of playing him, too.
But Familia didn’t get cut and he’s been a better pitcher than he was in 2019-2020. Not that that was a particularly high bar to clear, or that he’s back to his 2014-18 self, but he’s been a useful guy to have in the pen so far this season. Ideally, he’s a low to mid-leverage reliever. But you need those guys. Just because no one wants to see him on the mound when the game’s tied or within a run doesn’t mean that he can’t provide 60 or so valuable innings.
Most relievers go through a stretch where they’re lousy. Because they only throw in the neighborhood of 60 innings, how long and how bad that stretch is will likely determine what kind of season they have. From 6/13-7/16, a span of eight games, Familia allowed 8 ER in 8.1 IP. He’s had two scoreless appearances since then. Is the bad stretch over? We can’t know whether or not it is. If it’s over, Familia has a chance for his final line to look pretty good. But, say, he gives up runs in his next two appearances, then suddenly you’re looking at an ERA near 5.00 to go along with a WHIP north of 1.500 and no one will consider him an asset.
In 2015, Familia’s bad stretch was 7 ER in 8.1 IP. Then he went 16 appearances without allowing a run.
In 2016, he allowed 7 ER in 5 IP. Then he went 17 appearances without allowing a run.
Those were his best seasons. In those two years, Familia appeared in a combined 155.2 IP with a 2.20 ERA and a 1.105 WHIP. His bad stretches were brief and he followed them up with extended stretches of scoreless ball. Now let’s look at the previous two seasons.
In 2019, Familia allowed 10 ER in 10.2 IP. He followed that up with two scoreless appearances and then in his next 7 IP, he allowed 7 ER.
In 2020, he allowed 5 ER in 6.2 IP. He followed with five scoreless appearances and then gave up 4 ER in his next 6.1 IP.
Those were his worst seasons. Combined, Familia threw 86.2 IP and had a 5.09 ERA with a 1.650 WHIP.
Good years or bad years, we’ve seen Familia have a stretch where he’s given up runs in bunches. The key is do those stretches stand out or does he have other periods where he’s nearly as bad? We’ve seen the initial bad stretch for Familia in 2021. Now we just have to see the follow-up.
You can be optimistic and look at his 10.38 K/9 along with his 52.4 GB% and say that with regression with his BABIP – currently 34 points above his career average – that Familia is set to close the year with a strong performance. Or you can be a pessimist and say that relievers with a 4.75 BB/9 generally don’t go on extended scoreless streaks and when regression comes with his 78.9 LOB% that things will end up ugly.
The good news is that Familia isn’t being counted on as one of the club’s top relievers. Its not like 2015-16 when he was the team’s closer. If Familia does not follow up his bad stretch with an extended good streak, it won’t have the impact now that it would have five years ago. The bad news is that the current closer, Edwin Diaz, is in the midst of his own bad streak, where he’s allowed 9 ER in his last 8 IP.
In his poor 2019, Diaz had a stretch where he allowed 13 ER in 7.2 IP and followed that up with a stretch where he allowed 9 ER in 9 IP. In his monster 2018 season, the one that caused the Mets to trade for him, Diaz allowed 7 ER in 10.2 IP and then went 16 straight appearances without allowing an earned run.
Let’s hope that both Diaz and Familia can string together a double-digit streak of scoreless appearances going forward.
Man, Brian… you do put the work in… great reporting.
I’m not sure I can ever be objective about Familia after suffering through whatever “down periods” you want to delineate. I just can’t tolerate guys who can’t throw strikes, which is too bad because mostly his stuff misses barrels way more often than not.
I know Familia has sincerely tried, worked hard to change, reinvent, and excell, but the sentence imposed on us by Brody von Wanker for three years is almost over. To whomever advocates, rationalizes, shows tolerance for, or supports Familia remaining with the team after this year… a pox on his family.
I’d support bringing back Familia in a similar role as the 5th or 6th guy out of the pen, but not at the salary he’s at now. For a 1 year deal at around $3 million, I think it would be worth it, assuming he finishes this season with numbers similar to what he’s put up. You know he will have his ups and downs but he’s someone that can be used in a lot if different roles. Ideally it’s lower leverage situations but if you get into an extra inning game and need him late to close or keep a game tied, I thunk that’s better than an untested AAAA guy.
+1