We’re now 1,279 PA into Pete Alonso’s career and it’s hard to know exactly what we have in him. Is he the middle of the order threat that you build around and marvel watching him for the next 15 years? Or is he a second banana that you’re fortunate to have on your team but you let someone else have him when he turns 30? Ignoring defensive position/performance and focusing solely on offensive production – Is he more Mike Schmidt or Greg Luzinski?
Schmidt and Luzinski were teammates on the Phillies through most of the 1970s. Even younger fans likely know who Schmidt is, a Hall of Famer and someone in the running as the best 3B in MLB history. Chances are they don’t know Luzinski. A big powerful guy, nicknamed The Bull, Luzinski drew MVP votes in seven different seasons, finishing in the top 10 in balloting four times, including two second-place finishes.
In his career, Luzinski put up three OPS+ seasons in the 150s. In his rookie season when he hit 53 HR, Alonso put up a 145 OPS+. In short, Luzinski was a very good offensive player. But he clashed with new manager Dallas Green. Despite being a key component of a Phillies team that won the World Series – he had an .882 OPS in the NLCS – he was sold in the offseason. The Phillies were so keen on replacing him that they didn’t even require a player in return.
Luzinski had three productive years as a designated hitter with the White Sox, twice earning MVP support. But his fourth season was not up to standards and then he was done, having played his last MLB campaign at age 33. There were reports that teams were interested in him as a free agent following the 1984 season but that Luzinksi opted to retire, instead. This was a year before the three seasons that MLB was successfully sued for its collusive behavior towards free agents.
So, Alonso puts up a 145 OPS+ as a rookie and it seems like the sky’s the limit. But then he gets off to a terrible start in the truncated 2020 season and there wasn’t enough time for him to turn it around. Then it’s a somewhat similar pattern here in 2021, even if nowhere as extreme, with another slow start to the year.
When he went on the IL following the game on 5/18, Alonso had a .769 OPS. Since returning to action on 5/31, Alonso is slashing .285/.348/.564 in 198 PA. A .913 OPS is much closer to what we’d hope Alonso would produce and no one should be disappointed with those numbers. Still, his season-long OPS is .853 and even with the deadened ball, the expectation was that he’d produce an OPS in the 900s.
If we add 2020 and 2021 together, Alonso has an .838 OPS and a 129 OPS+ in 586 PA. It’s not the 693 PA he amassed in his rookie season when he played in 161 games but it’s still pretty close to what we consider a full year for a player. To be clear, a 129 OPS+ mark is very good. But in 14 seasons from 1974-1987, Schmidt bettered that mark 13 times. Outside of 1978, when he put up a 122 OPS+, Schmidt’s lowest mark in the category was the 142 he put up as a 37 year old in 1987.
The encouraging thing for Alonso right now is how he’s been putting up big slugging numbers since being activated from the IL. He’s no threat to win a batting title and while he puts in great effort, he’s neither a plus baserunner nor defensive player. Alonso has to provide power and he’s been doing that for nearly two months now.
If we look at the FanGraphs leaderboards, Alonso ranks tied for 13th among 26 qualified first basemen with a 1.4 fWAR. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. leads the way among first basemen with a 4.9 fWAR. If we focus strictly on offense, Alonso ranks sixth with a 132 wRC+. Again, Guerrero leads first basemen with a 190 mark in the category.
Few can match Alonso’s passion and, as a fan, it’s nice to see him come to the plate in a big situation. We’re all hoping that he can continue on hitting like he’s done since the last day of May. That’s a great player to have on your team, even better as a pre-arb guy. But it’s good to know what you have. Michael Conforto and Dominic Smith may never match what they did in 2020. And it’s among the possibilities that 2019 will be a career year for Alonso, too.
Unlike Schmidt, Luzinski didn’t make the Hall of Fame. But in 1998, he received a plaque on the “Wall of Fame” in Citizens Bank Park honoring him as one of the greatest Phillies of all time. Neither Darryl Strawberry nor David Wright will make the Hall of Fame, either, but both are considered all-time Mets greats.
The Mets let Strawberry leave as a free agent and he had his last great season at age 29, his first year after leaving New York. The Mets gave the big contract to Wright to keep him in Queens. Wright had his last great season at age 30. Off field problems kept Strawberry from a more productive career. Injuries did in Wright. Hopefully neither of those things happen to Alonso and he can be productive well into his 30s, like Schmidt.
But the 2021 Mets need Alonso to provide the .564 SLG that he has in his last 198 PA. Right now, at age 26, he can be either Luzinski or Schmidt and it will work out just fine. Luzinski had 39 HR and 130 RBIs as a 26 year old in 1977. A year earlier, in his age-26 season, Schmidt led the NL with 38 HR – only because Dave Kingman got hurt – and had 107 RBIs.
The mere mention of Luzinski conjures up some bad vibes from way back, when the mid to late 70s Mets were completely outclassed by Philly…maybe that is why the Phillies bother me more than any other NL team…even though the Braves pounded the Mets senseless for a much longer duration.
Anyhow, if Big Pete was the pre-30 Bull, that would work out just fine. I think he himself has higher expectations.
I understand completely. I think the Padres and the Brewers are the only teams in the NL I don’t have some beef – either real or imagined – against. But the Braves are at the top of the list, due to the sheer volume of sand they’ve kicked in our face the past 30 years.
The Pirates have paid for their sins against the Mets so I don’t despise them either.