Please use this thread to comment on any Mets-specific topic you wish.
Computerized projection systems are a non-biased way to assess what a player is likely to do in the upcoming season. They are hardly foolproof and are frequently wrong. But that’s why we play the games Regardless, at the end of the year we should see some players surpass their preseason projections, some meet them and some fall short. Let’s look back at the 2019 ZiPS projections for the Mets’ starters and compare them to actual results. For simplicity, we’ll just use OPS+. The first number after the name is the projection and the second number is the actual OPS+.
Conforto and Nimmo essentially met expectations, Cano fell short and the rest all exceeded what ZiPS expected them to do. We might have expected a few more of them to fall short but not too far off what we would consider a normal distribution. Now let’s look at 2021, with the understanding that there’s still over a month to go and final numbers will likely look different than what we see now.
So far in 2021, we have Davis exceeding expectations, Nimmo essentially performing as expected and everyone else failing to meet expectations. And most of these failures are of a scale of 25 points or more of OPS+ — Conforto -36, McNeil -32, Smith -27 and Lindor -28.
It’s not just Mets fans with their rose-colored glasses who are disappointed in the offense.
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