Please use this thread to comment on any Mets-specific topic you wish.

Computerized projection systems are a non-biased way to assess what a player is likely to do in the upcoming season. They are hardly foolproof and are frequently wrong. But that’s why we play the games Regardless, at the end of the year we should see some players surpass their preseason projections, some meet them and some fall short. Let’s look back at the 2019 ZiPS projections for the Mets’ starters and compare them to actual results. For simplicity, we’ll just use OPS+. The first number after the name is the projection and the second number is the actual OPS+.

Michael Conforto – 125, 126
Jeff McNeil – 106, 142
Robinson Cano – 107, 94
Brandon Nimmo – 109, 110
Amed Rosario – 91, 100
Pete Alonso – 110, 145
Wilson Ramos – 95, 105
J.D. Davis – 90, 136

Conforto and Nimmo essentially met expectations, Cano fell short and the rest all exceeded what ZiPS expected them to do. We might have expected a few more of them to fall short but not too far off what we would consider a normal distribution. Now let’s look at 2021, with the understanding that there’s still over a month to go and final numbers will likely look different than what we see now.

Conforto – 130, 94
McNeil – 125, 93
Alonso – 132, 125
Nimmo – 122, 120
Dominic Smith – 117, 90
Davis – 108, 144
James McCann – 92, 82
Francisco Lindor – 122, 94

So far in 2021, we have Davis exceeding expectations, Nimmo essentially performing as expected and everyone else failing to meet expectations. And most of these failures are of a scale of 25 points or more of OPS+ — Conforto -36, McNeil -32, Smith -27 and Lindor -28.

It’s not just Mets fans with their rose-colored glasses who are disappointed in the offense.

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9 comments on “Wednesday catch-all thread (8/18/21)

  • Steve_S.

    Keepers for hitters for various reasons (contracts, trade value, performance): Nimmo, Davis, Alonso, Lindor, McNeil, Villar, Drury, Guillorme, McCann, Nido.

    Starting Lineup for next year: 1B Alonso 2B McNeil SS Lindor 3B Bryant DH Davis LF ? CF Nimmo RF ? C McCann

    Bench: INF Villar, Guillorme C Nido OF/INF Drury

    Trading Chip: Smith

    • Steve_S.

      Starling Marte (OPS+ of 140 this year), Chris Taylor (129, Eddie Rosario (110) and/or Tommy Pham (110) as OFers?

  • Bob P

    In terms of your keepers list I agree with Lindor, Nimmo, Alonso, McNeil and McCann (contract). I could take Davis as a DH, and could take or leave Smith. Not sure why Villar, Drury, Guillorme and Nido are keepers. Any could be useful as a bench piece, but I wouldn’t call any of them keepers. Villar has hit some HRs but seems that they never come in a big spot – often late in a game that the Mets are down big. Honestly at this point, Lindor is a lock to be here, and McCann’s contract will keep him here too. After that anyone could be traded in the right deal with Alonso least likely to be moved in my opinion, followed by Nimmo and McNeil.

  • T.J.

    So the underperformance compared to the unbiased computer projections actually support the expectations of Met fans for offensive competence is not tainted by rose colored glasses.

    It also suggests that despite the calls for new management, the problem is player performance. Now, it could be paralysis by analysis, which is somewhat on the management, but the eye test tells me that with the number of hitter count strikes this team has failed to capitalize on, it’s primarily on the hitters.

  • Woodrow

    2 games, I think the Mets might win 2 of the 13 games with the Dodgers and Giants.

  • Woodrow

    I keep Baez. I keep Smith, him and Alonso DH and play first. I go after Buxton. I keep an open mind on Vientos and Baty getting shots. I’m looking for pitching. Conforto is gone, Syndergard? Try to sign Stroman. Get a third baseman that is a good fielder. That could be some defensive infield. McNeil to RF or trade chip. Nimmo to LF. Wow,no wonder this team is probably not going to play 500 ball.

    • Steve_S.

      Don’t like Baez’s all-or-nothing approach. I could see a Smith/Alfonso combo at DH and 1B. True that Vientos and/or Baty could play 3B, but signing Bryant gives them a bit more time—and Bryant could move to the OF, where they need players. I think McNeil is fine at 2B and Nimmo in CF.

  • MattyMets

    Since Davis has missed half the season, it’s hard to get excited about his production. The craziest thing to me is that we may well wind up with only one player with more than 20 home runs for the season.

  • Woodrow

    With so many starters only pitching 5 or even 4 innings one has to wonder if this is only a post pandemic thing or if it’s the new norm. Analytics say don’t let a average starter pitch to a lineup the third time. If this is the new norm piggy back relievers need to be developed. Guys who pitch every third ,fourth or fifth day and pitch one time through a teams lineup. Hill,Oswald,Williams, maybe Peterson if he doesn’t make it back as a starter come to mind.

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