Please use this thread all week to discuss any Mets-specific topic you wish.

It’s been quite an in-season contrast for Francisco Lindor.

First 187 PA – .178/.288/.261 with a .196 BABIP
Last 295 PA – .266/.353/.492 with a .290 BABIP

For his career, Lindor has a .279/.344/.478 line with a .293 BABIP. What we’ve seen since the end of May is pretty much exactly what we should have expected from Lindor. And while it was fair to wonder early on how Lindor ever hit 30 HR in a season, he has 14 HR in his last 295 PA or a HR every 21.1 PA. When he hit 33 HR in 2017, Lindor averaged a HR every 21.9 PA.

Those first two months counted and they’ll keep Lindor’s overall season looking like a pretty big disappointment. However, he has a 2.6 fWAR and a 2.9 rWAR. Lindor is one of four position players on the Mets with at least a 2.0 fWAR and he’s produced more value than James McCann, Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil and Dominic Smith combined together.

Javier Baez has a chance to make it five players, as he currently has a 1.7 fWAR in 39 games as a Met. If J.D. Davis had been a full-time player upon his return from the IL, as you’d think his bat would have merited, they would have another potential guy over the 2.0 threshold. Brandon Nimmo leads the team with a 3.1 fWAR.

28 comments on “Thursday catch-all thread (9/23/21)

  • Woodrow

    Sign Baez, get a CFer (Buxton,Marte?),get a hitter Schawber,Castelano?) and let’s try again.

    • Steve_S.

      I would sign Baez (who’ll be 29) for 5 years at $25 million/yr (but that’s about it). His OPS+ for the Mets is an unsustainable 155, but I could see him going about 125 next season. There’s no reason to think that he can’t continue to be more selective at the plate, in my opinion. Would he be self destructive enough to go back to his wild swinging? And I love his fielding and base running!

      Marte will be 33 next year. He steals tons of bases and is a decent CFer with a better arm than Nimmo. His OPS+ next year might also be around 125. Could the Mets get him for 3 years at $20 million/yr?

      Castellanos will turn 30 next year. Not the greatest OFer, but he’s another 125 OPS+ guy probably. Four years at $18 million/yr? The problem with signing Castellanos is that we probably would lose a first-round draft pick.

      All three are RH batters.

      Schwarber (29 next year) is LH and probably is yet another 125 OPS+ guy next year. Salary? Four years at $18 million/yr too? No loss of a draft pick here.

      An OF of Nimmo, Marte and Castellanos (if no draft pick lost) or Schwarber, with Smith traded for pitching and Conforto let go would be fine with me, even with a DH in the NL. My fear is that Conforto, if offered a QO, might take it.

      An infield of Alonso, Baez, Lindor and Bryant (30 next year) would be terrific. Bryant could move to the OF and DH when/if Vientos or Baty is ready.

  • AgingBull

    There seems to be a split opinion on M360 about signing Baez. Elsewhere, it seems that other fans and forums are all-in on El Mago. For what it’s worth I was diametrically opposed to trading for him at all, but if he can continue his current BB/K numbers, I’d be pretty jazzed to see him next to Lindor for the next few years. But who can count on that? He’s going to get paid. A lot. So when he goes somewhere else, I won’t be disappointed.

    There’s a lot of energy everywhere behind signing Bryant. I’d much rather we signed him vs. Baez although the latter has outperformed since the Cubs sold off their vets. However, I have real concerns here too because to my way of thinking, there are two or three phenoms making their way to Citi in 2022 or 2023. Why block them with these long term contracts? I am referring, of course, to Baty, Vientos, and Mauricio. Yes, there’s a freight train long list of failed “can’t miss” Mets prospects, but for some reason, this trio seems more likely to make the grade versus their predecessors.

    If the Mets were to: (1) trade off some of their middle-tier assets (e.g. McNeil, Smith, Davis) for more prospects to fill in minor league depth; (2) play these young-uns in 2022; (3) overhaul the front office and coaching staff; and (4) continue to build out their minor league and analytics infrastructure, then I would happily trade a mediocre 2022 for what could be years of success.

    I do not feel like they are one or two additions away from being anything more than a WC contender and our sights should be higher than that given Cohen’s resources.

    • AgingBull

      The hiring of a cornerstone veteran in the front office is the key to making this work. Cohen can’t take a flyer on a BVW type and hire a “second-in-command” type from a winning franchise. If Epstein or Beane took over and announced a 2-3 year plan, I think most would have some confidence.
      The shame is the waste of JDG in what’s left in his prime. If a true rebuild is on the table, then (shudder) trading Jake away for an arsenal of prospects needs to be on the table too.
      Maybe on the other hand I’m just a nut job…

    • Brian Joura

      At the time of the Baez deal, my thought was that the Lindor injury must have been more serious than they were letting on and that Baez was the pick over Bryant because he can play SS. When it was clear that Lindor wasn’t going to be out for much longer, I was disappointed in the choice of trade target, especially given the start that Bryant got off to with the Giants.

      But since their respective trades, Bryant has a 130 OPS+ with the Giants while Baez has a 155 OPS+ with the Mets.

      If the Mets were to re-sign Baez, he doesn’t really block any of the three prospects you mentioned, certainly not Baty or Vientos. Perhaps Mauricio but I still think he’s much more likely to be an OFer than a 2B. Baez does block McNeil and under Wilponian ownership, you’d argue that the money for Baez wouldn’t be worth the upgrade from McNeil. But with Cohen in charge, that $/win calculation doesn’t have to take such a high priority as before. While recognizing that SP is the top priority, my hope is that Baez is in the Mets’ starting lineup on Opening Day in 2022 and beyond.

      • AgingBull

        I agree that Baez does not directly block the prospects but he does if they move McNeil or Cano to 3B. Of course if they sign Bryant or Correa then there’s blockage. I guess I am a little old school when it comes to homegrown talent vs. the mercenary class. That said, give me Clendennon, Hernandez, Carter, Piazza, Beltran, Delgado, et al, any day of the week!

      • JamesTOB

        Brian, with Lindor blocking Mauricio at SS, I found myself wondering if he’d make a good outfielder. Can you give us any insight into what kind of speed and arm he has and which OF position would best suit him?
        The same for Vientos as an outfielder.
        Thanks.

        • Brian Joura

          Mauricio should have the speed and arm to play any OF position. Instincts are unknown until he actually plays there. Vientos is a corner guy, possibly only LF.

  • T.J.

    Some observations –
    – regarding the variation in Lindor’s BABIP on the splits, it would be very interesting in grouping that metric with both fly ball/ground ball info as well as hard hit %/barreled %. That my provide more insight into hitting performance and reduce the “luck” factor in BABIP…Conforto’s 2020 would be interesting as well…
    – We Met fans tend to focus on a particular free agent. What I would like to see is more of a “plan”. This requires the new baseball guy be hired and hit the ground running. An accurate projection of the prospects mentioned above, in both timeline and impact, is likely more important than any free agent signing. Second to that is a projection on the big leaguers that stunk this year. For which guys was 2021 an blip?
    – lastly, regarding Baez specifically, I was so-so at acquisition, would have preferred no move to retain chips, or obtaining Bryant over Baez, but that is water under the bridge. The offense needs to improve, and it came up small even with Baez here, maybe not his fault, but it did. They need an injection of talent, but not multiple costly thirty-somethings…that rarely works.
    – Cohen got taken to the cleaners by Lindor. A labor stoppage is looming. This makes for a very interesting offseason in both expectation and behavior, by both Cohen and potential free agents coming to the Mets. I don’t think there’s a guy out there I’d give half of Lindor’s contract to. How will that play overall in MLB and with players like Baez. Cohen needs to use his financial clout strategically but not haphazardly. Four quality moves can change the direction of the team.

    • José

      T.J. said:

      “A labor stoppage is looming… I don’t think there’s a guy out there I’d give half of Lindor’s contract to.”

      Could you expand on this a bit? Thanks

      • T.J.

        Jose, sure, I’ll try.

        The union agreement is up Dec 1, and there is a bunch of uncertainty regarding the timing of a new agreement, if there will be a work stoppage, if there will be significant changes to the way things work such as arb years, free agency season, comp pick, etc. So, I am intrigued by how all MLB will act prior and subsequent to the deadline, and very intrigued about how Cohen will act.

        This leads into the second statement. Everyone knows Cohen is crazy rich and can spend more than any other owner. So, how will he spend in light of the several issues – 1. The labor relations…will he refrain from spending if other owners do so 2. coming off a lousy disappointing first season 3. coming off his only big signing, Lindor, as most observers think he got beaten pretty good by a kid from Puerto Rico…will his ego come in to play? $340 million and a 10 year commitment is nuts for the most part. I wouldn’t give Baez, or Bryant, or any other free agent half that and I wouldn’t exceed a 5 year deal ever. But, that’s me, and I have no money or no say. What Uncle Stevie will do is what matters.

        • Metsense

          TJ mark me down agreeing that Cohen is crazy rich and will spend what it takes to win. Even if it is overpriced. Look at his art collection purchases.

  • Woodrow

    Find next years Ray,don’t sign Ray. Kikuchi,Gray, Eduardo Rodrigues come to mind. Sign Rich Hill, he can be emergency starter and. A2-3 inning reliever, a useful item in a time when starters go 5 innings.

  • Mike W

    Let’s build out our winning team with pitching and defense. Last nights game was a microcosm of this season. Awful defense. The team just seems so lifeless and ho hum.

    I was originally against Baez. If he can keep working on his eye, then lets sign him. But we still have boat anchors Smith and McNeil. Forget CF, let’s leave Nimmo there. Much easier to find a right fielder not named Conforto.

    We have to see what trades hopefully a new GM can pull off. Also, Rojas really needs to go as well as Alderson needs to retire.

  • Wobbit

    I wonder what kind of CFer Javy Baez would make. He’s so fast and has such good instincts, I’d love to see him run down balls in the gaps. And what’s his arm look like from the OF? I’m betting he’s better out there than Nimmo… who can then move to LF, where he would be very good. That flexibility would strengthen Baez’s bargaining position and the team in general. But Javy’s gonna look for 30 M a year, like his boy Lindor.

    How did Rosario do in the outfield in Cleveland?

    Every time someone brings up Cano, I cringe. Really? Are the brass really gonna let him suit up one more time? He can’t play well without juicing, so what’s the point? An embarrassment and well past his prime.

  • BobP

    Despite his strong numbers since coming to the Mets Baez has had a OPS+ over 120 once in his career and his career mark is 105. I find it hard to believe that he will suddenly find plate discipline over the course of a full season. There are some things that I really like about him that I didn’t appreciate before getting to see him play every day (base running is definitely one of those – I love those slides where he dekes with one hand and gets the other in) but I don’t think he’s a $25 million a year player for multiple years, and I think that’s what he’ll get. If he regresses to his careers numbers is a 105 OPS+ worth that? I’d let him walk.

    Like Wobbit said I also cringe when I think about Cano being back. I’d love to see him released or bought out although I don’t see that happening. I can’t imagine he’s productive without the juice and after sitting out a year at his age.

    • Name

      ^Agree

      Ignoring long term trends and placing faith in a 30 game sample size? Did we not learn anything with James McCann?

  • Metsense

    The Mets need to improve the offense Bryant is a consistent performer that has good batting splits against RHP or LHP and a career slash line of 279/377/507/885 and averaged 31 HRS. He should be the primary target.

  • JimO

    I am 60-40 in favor of signing Baez. I was aghast at the deal originally but now that I’ve seen him play, I think he brings a fair amount of energy to whatever energy the team shows.

    If he walks, though, I wouldn’t freak out.

    • Brian Joura

      This is pretty much where I’m at, even if I would go higher on the preference to sign him.

  • ChrisF

    Im 40-60, because all I see is a late run at $ and Yoenis Cespedes, whom we all know was a monumental bust after 2015. Baez looks about the same to me.

  • JimO

    There are some key differences between Cespedes and Baez I think: 1) he’s younger, 2) no significant injury history, and 3) is playing (and partnering for DPs with his friend).

    • Steve_S.

      And I don’t think he rides horses either.

  • Steve_S.

    John Harper in the NY Post thinks we need to make big changes to improve the offense, yet this is the lineup he came up with today:
    Nimmo, CF
    Castellanos, RF
    Lindor, SS
    Alonso, 1B
    Baez, 2B
    McNeil LF
    Smith/Cano DH
    Villar/Davis 3B
    McCann C

    So he “adds” Cano and substitutes Castellanos for Conforto. That’s not enough. They at least need to also add Bryant at 3B/OF/DH.

  • TexasGusCC

    So, Travis Blankenhorn followed up his 0-4 with 4 K’s in the first game with an 0-3 with 3 K’s in the second game. For those of you scoring at home, that’s a 0-7 with 7K’s day! Hmmm….

    If:
    0-4 with 4 K’s is a golden sombrero, and
    0-5 with 5 K’s is a platinum sombrero, can
    0-6 with 6 K’s be like a palladium sombrero, thus
    0-7 with 7 K’s be the super rare rhodium sombrero? Or, renamed as the Blankenhorm sombrero?
    Certainly the 0-8 with 8 K’s day can be the iridium sombrero, to which there is no topping. It was very kind of the Syracuse manager Chad Kreuter to pinch hit for Blankenhorn in his last plate appearance to avoid the untoppable and probably first ever iridium sombrero.

    That’s a tough day at the office..

    • BrianJ

      Guess he picked up some bad habits from his time with the MLB club…

  • ChrisF

    E# = E
    Winning season = No.
    Time to clean the FO house = Yes.

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