The biggest constant in the Mets’ starting rotation in 2021 was Marcus Stroman. While others missed half of the year or more, Stroman has made 32 starts prior to Tuesday’s game against the Marlins. While Taijuan Walker has been close with 28 starts, he can’t match Stroman’s consistency. Stroman’s ERA in the second half has gone up by little over half a run, Walker’s has gone up by over five runs.
Many people worried about Stroman heading into the season, wondering how he would hold up after sitting out 2020 due to Covid concerns. That seemed odd to me. Stroman was in the prime of his career and had three times pitched 180 innings or more in a season. If he had, say, broken his leg in 2020 instead of opting out – would there have been the same concern?
Regardless, Stroman has answered the bell. He has 174 IP and the only reason he doesn’t have more is his manager’s tendency to remove all starters at the first chance where it makes the tiniest amount of sense to do so. He should have two starts remaining and it seems likely that he’ll crack 180 IP when all is said and done.
Two things stand out to me about Stroman’s 2021. First, you can tell a lot about Stroman by whether or not he gives up a home run in a game. He’s given up a gopher ball in 11 games this year and is 2-8 with a no-decision – a Mets’ loss – in those appearances. Stroman has a 4.22 ERA in those outings. Meanwhile, when he keeps the ball in the park, Stroman is 7-5 with a 2.29 ERA. It makes sense that a pitcher will do better when he doesn’t give up a homer. But it seems an ERA nearly two full runs better is higher than you’d expect from a veteran pitcher with as much success as Stroman’s had in his career.
The other thing that has been noticeable about Stroman is that he’s had games where he’s struck out a bunch of guys and others where he has a line like a soft-tosser from the 1970s. Stroman has been more of a groundball pitcher throughout his career than he’s been a big compiler of strikeouts. Yet he’s had 16 games this year with at least as many strikeouts as innings pitched. And on the flip side, there have been nine game where he’s had at least two fewer whiffs than innings, including his start in the first game of a doubleheader where he did not fan a batter in five innings.
In the high strikeout games, Stroman has a 3.20 ERA, compared to a 3.29 ERA in his low strikeout games. You would expect his ERA to be a lot better in the high strikeout games, figuring those would be the ones where he had his best stuff. But that’s not necessarily the case here, at least this season. It seems much more important whether he keeps the ball from going over the wall than if he piles up a high K/9.
If you were going to create a pitcher from scratch and give him traits, you’d have him with a high strikeout rate, a high groundball rate and a low HR/9 mark. With Stroman getting lots of grounders, the next big thing is for him to avoid the gopher ball. We like strikeouts because as long as your catcher holds onto the ball, nothing bad will happen. In 2021 with the Mets’ improved defense, not many bad things happened to Stroman when he got batters to hit the ball on the ground, either.
A New York native who wears his heart on his sleeve and always seems to give it everything he’s got – you’d think Stroman would be a fan favorite. Especially given his short stature. When we get used to pitchers being 6’5 or bigger, it’s nice to see the 5’7 Stroman competing and succeeding out on the mound. Yet it seems like not all of the fan base is sold on bringing Stroman back for 2022 and beyond.
At this point of the 2021 season, we haven’t seen Noah Syndergaard throw a pitch in two years and when we did see him last, he was putting up a 96 ERA+ over 32 starts. Stroman has a 133 ERA+ this season. But some people want to give Syndergaard the QO while not being willing to give Stroman that much money in a multi-year deal.
It would be tough to justify that thought process under the penny-pinching Wilpons. It’s virtually impossible to do so when money should be a much lower priority with Steve Cohen’s pockets.
Stroman should be returning to NY, and after the solid season he’s had with this bad ballclub, I’m sure crazy money will be thrown his way by perpetual winners like the Yankees and Dodgers.
I expect him to stay in New York……though with the Yankees.
Sure, we can appreciate, but should you invest? For four full seasons before this year, he averaged a 113 ERA+, a 1.33 WHIP, and a 3.80 FIP. Too, given Stroman’s lack of size, these guys usually flame out a bit earlier and he’s already 32. Not saying he isn’t worth a new deal, but he wants “gold glove/ace/always healthy” money and he isn’t that pitcher. Truth is, he’s a good #2 type maybe heading toward #3 territory. While that still has value, he isn’t worth throwing tons of money at. He’s worth, 3 years at about $18-$20 per year.
And I disagree with you on breaking his leg or holding out. How come he didn’t want to opt out before he hit enough days service time if he was so concerned about his family? Notice his concern materialized when he accrued service time while sitting on the DL? He’s a BS artist who focused for a full season in his walk year. Let him go.
It’s hard to fault anything about Marcus’s 2021 performance. He has been their best starter this season…I know, deGrom’s numbers are filthy, but you can’t help the team when you don’t pitch. 180+ innings of 3 ish ERA wins in my book.
Stroman will turn 31 in 2022, so his age isn’t so much a concern. Whether his was laser focused this season given his pending free agency, that’s always hard to tell. I think the biggest issue on signing him is the composition of the 2022 staff. DeGrom, Carrasco, Walker all signed…Walker and Carrasco are concerning given performance and deGrom given availability. Yes, Stroman can fit into that #2, but he is more of a 2/3 and not a deGrom ace type. Nabbing a real strong #2 who could be a 1a would be excellent and perhaps a wiser use of resources…but can they identify and obtain that player? If that was accomplished, and Syndergaard brought back as more of a “wildcard”. Moving on from Stroman would be justified by an overall better group of starters with more high-end potential.
One could argue Stroman is very boom/bust. He may be very consistent in 2021, but hard to say he’s been a very consistent starter season to season as he has yet to put up back to back above average years in his career.
In a fair world the way to value him is to give him a modest base with lots of incentives.
ERA+
2016: 97
2017: 145
2018: 77
2019: 137
2020: DNP
2021: 133
There are 140 MLB starting pitchers that have pitched at least 80 innings this year. Stroman is ranked #31 in fWAR, #32 in FIP, #37 in WHIP and #17 ERA. He is a solid #2 starter. He has proven that he can pitch in New York. Signing him should be a priority.
I think if you can post a 5 season average of 118 ERA+ you have a good pitcher.
its impossible to predict what 22 would look like, but say you have a guy that regresses to the mean, Ill take that 118 ERA+. It could be worse but those are the gambles.
The fact we are having this conversation is a sign of deep trouble: the starting rotation is very grim. The most convincing starter we have for 22 is Carrasco.
Jake: is one pitch from a second TJ surgery. He’s missed months of starts. No matter how he protests, thats a bad thing.
Noah: Hasnt pitched in 2 years. Cannot thorw a breaking pitch
Walker: O. M. G.
Peterson, Megill, etc are all driftwood.
Looking at Bauer’s ERA+ starting in his age 23 season (when Stroman reached the majors and Bauer had only 33.1 IP in the majors) he had one excellent season at 196, one very excellent one-third season at 287 (for which Mr. Kink mega-cashed in) and one pretty good half season at 156 before he was bounced. The rest were, at best, nothing more than ordinary. Overall, his 116 ERA+ is identical to Stroman’s 116.
Frankly, even if Marcus is a “con artist”, I’d rather have him than something potentially much much worse, that is, a criminal, especially at half the price
If my memory serves me well, I think Stroman has pitched better than his record indicates. I believe the bullpen has cost him several games he has pitched well in.
I think you have to offer Stroman a contract just to reward him for pitching well (I was dubious) and not getting hurt (I was certain he would). Pay him 40M for 2 years… maybe with a club option for the third year. If he walks, he walks.