It’s no secret that the Mets need pitching, a statement bolstered by the unexpected departure of Noah Syndergaard. It’s unlikely that Syndergaard will throw 200 innings this year. Yet it’s likely the Mets were expecting 125 innings or so from him in 2022. Not significantly different than what they were expecting this time in 2020 for 2021, it seems. Regardless, how do the Mets replace those innings with pitchers better than Jerad Eickhoff and Robert Stock?

We all expect the Mets to dive into the free agent market. The challenge with free agency since the beginning has been not to get stuck paying today and tomorrow for yesterday’s performance. For the most part, clubs have caught on to that issue and do a pretty good job not handing out big-money, long-term deals to guys closer to 40 than to 30. In a roundabout way, the system used to work. Guys wouldn’t get paid market rate in the beginning of their careers and then they would make it up in the back end, if they were able to hang around long enough, when they got overpaid.

That will be one of the things that hopefully the owners and players will solve in the ongoing labor discussions. It’s a problem without an easy solution and good luck to both sides with that issue. But in the here and now, veterans on the wrong side of 30 generally have a tough row to hoe. And it’s just about impossible for them to get five-year deals. But can the Mets take advantage of the current reality to “replace” Syndergaard’s theoretical inning output next season?

Without doing one second of research, it seems to me that this year’s free agent class had the best quartet of super veteran pitchers available, ever. Checking in at a combined 136 years of age, with nine CY Awards among them, were Zack Greinke, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander. Of course, Verlander had to ruin the premise by quickly re-signing with the Astros. After missing most of the last two seasons recovering from TJ surgery, Verlander agreed to a 1/$25 deal to return to Houston.

It’s just a tad surprising to me that the two sides agreed to a deal for that much money. Verlander is essentially in the same boat as Syndergaard, guys who were once great pitchers who now have to rediscover their greatness after sitting out for two seasons due to TJ surgery. Syndergaard is significantly younger, which plays in his favor. Verlander has been significantly better, with eight seasons with an fWAR of 4.5 or greater, compared to Syndergaard’s one. When last healthy in 2019, Syndergaard put up a 4.3 fWAR. Verlander had a 6.4 mark.

If Verlander can put up a season half as good as he did when he was last healthy, he’ll be worth his contract. Are you as confident that he can do that as the Astros are? It’s not a horrible wager but it seems to be one that any team could be forgiven for not rushing out to make. At the same time, Verlander won a CY Award with the Astros, finished second in the balloting the previous season, won the MVP of the ALCS for them and pitched in two World Series with the club. There’s a lot of history there, even if he’s only pitched for them for two full seasons and parts of two others.

Should the Mets be willing to pay the Syndergaard/Verlander rate for any of the remaining super veteran pitchers? Should they be willing to do a multi-year deal with them if that’s what it takes? Because if Verlander gets one year after missing the last two seasons, you’ve got to figure Scherzer will get a multi-year deal, for sure. And perhaps the other two, too. Let’s take a look at our remaining three pitchers.

After recovering from his early battles with depression and social anxiety, Greinke has been a model of durability throughout his career. In the 12-year period from 2008-2019, Greinke totaled 2,415.2 IP. He topped 200 innings nine times and never posted fewer than 150 IP. In the Covid year, Greinke finished 10th in the AL in innings pitched. In 2021, he threw 171 innings despite missing time with Covid. In his first 26 games, Greinke had a 3.43 ERA. He then allowed 6 ER in 4 IP before being shut down. He returned to make three more starts but gave up 14 ER in 11.1 IP in those appearances.

Greinke was slowed by neck soreness in the playoffs but tossed four scoreless innings in his only World Series appearance. Near the end of the regular season, Greinke said he “definitely” wanted to play in 2022, further saying it was a “possibility” that he would return to the Astros. Greinke will be 38 next season.

Before the injuries hit, Kershaw was the best pitcher in the game. And when he’s been healthy enough to pitch the last six seasons, he’s a combined 71-28 with a 2.60 ERA, which is pretty darn terrific. Last year was his worst season since he debuted as a 20 year old back in 2008. But what’s bad for Kershaw would be an excellent season for 99% of MLB pitchers, as he put up a 3.55 ERA in 121.2 IP.

It’s probably a low-single-digit chance that Kershaw leaves Los Angeles. But he’ll only be 34 next year and he might put up the best 125 innings of anyone on the market.

Scherzer didn’t want to come to the Mets at the trade deadline last year. That’s too bad because once he joined the Dodgers, Scherzer went 7-0 with a 1.98 ERA for Los Angeles down the stretch in 11 games. The Mets could have used that. Mets fans know first hand how good Scherzer is, having watched him dominate for the division rival Nationals for the last seven years, earning top five CY Award support in six of those seasons, including two wins and a third-place finish last year.

Agent Scott Boras tried to downplay Scherzer’s refusal to join the Mets last year, and his alleged preference for the West Coast, saying that Scherzer’s decision where to sign will be based on “winning and not geography.” Perhaps that still eliminates the Mets from being his ultimate destination. Or perhaps a contract for an old guy that we haven’t seen in a decade will change his tune.

*****

The rule is you don’t want to pay big money for old guys. But we have three pitchers available this offseason who are exceptions to that rule. In Steve Cohen’s first year as owner, the Mets were ready to spend major money to get Trevor Bauer. Now, Bauer wasn’t as old as these guys. But he wasn’t as good, either.

So, whether it’s 3/$110 for Scherzer or 2/$70 for Kershaw or 1/$30 for Greinke – let’s be open to big money for an older pitcher with a great track record. Pitching is going to be expensive and there’s not going to be much of a discount for these three old hurlers. In my opinion, all three of those deals would be better than what the Angels spent on Syndergaard. And that’s with doing what it takes to re-sign Marcus Stroman, too.

11 comments on “Mets shouldn’t shy away from old guy free agent pitchers

  • T.J.

    Brian,
    I’m in basic agreement, and it seems as though Eppler will have the resources to get this done. It will basically come down to two issues – which if any of these guys would venture into NYC at this stage of their careers, and will Eppler and Co. spin the wheel and make the right choice on who’ll be good in 2022. When I saw the headline I thought for sure Rich Hill would be on the list…maybe he can replace Verlander in the foursome despite lacking the gaudy career numbers.

    What I liked most from what I heard out of Eppler was that he wanted to add enough starters to push Megill and Peterson to AAA as depth, which mirrored my thoughts exactly. This could also benefit those guys developmentally and competitively. It could also serve notice to Carrasco and Walker that a prolonged funk a la 2021 could cost them their job. Stroman would be my first matter of business, and if he can be secured that allows Eppler a lot of flexibility for the other addition.

  • ChrisF

    I read that scherzer has enough history with the Nats he does not want to be in the same division playing against. Kershaw is not leaving LA – low single digits sounds about right. I’m ok with Grienke as back half guy, but remember he has some significant personality tho gs and def did not perform under the bright lights of a big market.

    I’m not opposed brining in any of these guys, just think it’s quite unlikely.

    We need front line pitchers in the worst way.

    • ChrisF

      Retract on grienke. He of course did perform. He’d be a fine add for a #4 starter

  • Wobbit

    I just want to propose the opposing view. I feel as though the Mets are weak enough, that adding one expensive pitcher or two will make little difference in their post season hopes. If deGrom can pitch, then only one more pitcher is badly needed, and that could be Stroman, or some other reliable #2, #3.

    I’d rather see the them build from the bottom, cash in good players for an armload of younger talent, and play a fun, energetic brand of baseball, even if it results in only 81 wins. What if we use Cohen’s money to build a “can’t miss” future rather than spend on iffy expensive FAs like Chris Bryant (I prefer Escobar). We are not going to catch the Braves for several years, so why mortgage the future for the inevitable mediocre season?

  • Metsense

    Eppler want 2-3 starting pitchers. Cohen says he has money to spend. The Mets need a #2 and all three veterans would fit the bill. Stroman, Gausman or Ray would be a 5-6 year commitment. Scherzer, Kershaw or Greinke would probably be a 1-3 year commitment therefore Eppler would gain flexibility for future payrolls. The bonus is that all three veterans aren’t encumbered by a draft pick. Eppler has many options to fill the #2 spot in the rotation.

  • Woodrow

    Pedro and Tommy Glavine come to mind…

    • Brian Joura

      Pedro Martinez gave the Mets a 6.1 fWAR in 2005, one of the best seasons in club history
      Tom Glavine gave the Mets 130 starts

      Yeah, that sounds about right.

  • NYM6986

    Sadly, the Mets are not one aging pitcher or star player away from contention unless everyone, or at least most of the team, hits for their average seasons. That’s why signing an aging pitcher who wants another ring will likely elude them as they continue to rebuild. Signing Stro is priority #1 and I can’t imagine why that was not done one day post World Series. Rich Hill as a number 5 innings eater, even at his age, also seems like a no brainer based on last year. Also if you could get Tyler McGill past 5 innings without imploding then he fits in but you are right that starting in Syracuse to learn to pitch further in games is appropriate. The Yankees spent years contending each season because they could simply outscore their opponents in the face of giving up 5-6 runs. The Mets fall that far behind and we think who’s starting tomorrow. Fix the bats and some defensive holes and we should easily project to mid 80’s in the win column and inch closer to the playoffs. Then add at the trade deadline like they did in 2015. Love each of the aging pitchers you highlight but why would they want to come here and see a decline in their W-L record because we don’t score?

    • Brian Joura

      The expectation for guys in their late 20s is that they should perform to their career averages, not that one bad season automatically resets the bar to the bad season.

  • MattyMets

    I’ve always been a big Kershaw supporter, but he’s a hard 34. Between the back issues and all the extra postseason innings, he’s more like 39. I don’t think Grienke has the mettle for NYC. I’d be down with signing the other two but dont see it happening.

  • Wobbit

    Mets need two more Big Bats (OF, 3B) to get anywhere close to adequate. They need a legit speed guy in CF, so they can move Nimmo to LF. Without these upgrades, aging, success-oriented SPs will not sign here.

    Build it and they might come.

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