“And so begins the task
I have dreaded the coming of
For so long”

One of my beliefs is that you have to hold yourself accountable for what you say and do. Each year right before the start of the season, I make about 15 predictions for the coming year. Not once have more than half of these been correct. That doesn’t bother me too much, in that the goal is to make non-boring predictions. Regardless, that column always starts with a look back at how those predictions went.

In a similar vein, we always have a wrap-up of the individual player projections. It’s time to start the 2022 projections but it seems wrong posting those without wrapping up how the 2021 batch went. Typically, there are a few that were too optimistic, a few that were generally right and a few that were too pessimistic. But not 2021.

This past year they were mostly terrible, done in by optimism and/or injuries. Let’s take a look at the one for Dominic Smith, which might be the worst of the bunch. His projection was: 568 PA, .278/.336/.527, 26 HR, 78 RBIs. Let’s just say he didn’t reach those numbers. Check that, the one for Jeff McNeil was even worse — 593 PA, .322/.384/.569, 23 HR, 95 RBIs. How different 2021 would have played out if those two came close to my forecasts.

The 2021 projections were horrible.

It’s actually easier to list the ones that were in the right ballpark. But one more time for emphasis before getting to the rare good ones, let’s say the 2021 projections stunk worse than five-day-old fish. So, here are the rare silver linings from last year’s guesses:

The forecast for J.D. Davis was a triple slash line of .275/380/.425 and he put up a .285/.384/.436 line.
Taijuan Walker was projected to throw 154 IP and he ended up with 157 IP.
My call was for Pete Alonso to have a .255 AVG and a .352 OPS and he finished with .262/.344, respectively.
Marcus Stroman was forecasted for 180 IP, 168 Ks and 16 HR and his final 2021 numbers were 179 IP, 158 Ks and 17 HR allowed.
The James McCann projection was a .230 AVG, .290 OBP and 50 RBIs and he finished with a .232 AVG, a .294 OBP and 46 RBIs.
My line for Edwin Diaz had 23 BB and he finished with … 23 BB.

If not listed above, you can surmise that my predictions didn’t come close to being right. You know, because they were lousy.

There are two more that deserve partial credit, which will hopefully raise the grade from an F to an F+

My Francisco Lindor forecast had a .335 OBP and a .470 SLG. In his final 337 PA of the season, Lindor posted a .341 OBP and a .492 SLG.
Michael Conforto was projected to put up a .275/.365/.460 line. In the last two months of the year, a span of 215 PA, Conforto produced a .272/.372/.457 mark.

Perhaps it’s nothing more than grasping at straws – because, you know, the 2021 projections were more painful to look at than reruns of “Three’s Company” – but my projections for Lindor and Conforto give me a tiny bit of hope, that maybe my way of coming up with the numbers isn’t completely broken.

It’s good to have hope – sometimes that’s all you’ve got.

8 comments on “A review of the 2021 Mets projections

  • BoomBoom

    These were mine (LOL). I got 2 correct. (Lugo and Alonso)

    1. Nimmo will be the starting CF in the all-star game
    2. Miguel Castro will not have a 0.00 ERA through April
    3. Jeff McNeil will bat .235 in April, but hit .400 from May 1 on
    4. Pete Alonso will commit fewer than 10 errors on the season (12 in 2019, 5 last year)
    5. Luis Guillorme will start more than 50 games in the infield
    6. Kevin Pillar will start less than 50 games in the outfield
    7. Familia and Betances will each have ERAs under 4
    8. Seth Lugo will have an ERA over 3
    9. Jordan Yamamoto will have as many starts as David Peterson, and more than Joey Luchessi (because the Mets will use an opener for him most if not all of the time)
    10. The Mets will win 94 games and finish in first place by 3 games over the Braves.
    11. DeGrom will win 20, strikeout 280 and have a sub 2.20 ERA to win his 3rd Cy Young
    12. 4 mets will finish in the top 15 for MVP vote getters (DeGrom, Lindor, Alonso, and Nimmo).

  • Wobbit

    You are a brave man.

    My 5 Quick Keys to a good year for the Mets:
    1. Jake and Max get 50 starts between them, minimum.
    2. Taijuan gets better longer.
    3. Marte hits his averages.
    4. Nimmo stays on the field.
    5. Diaz holds his own.

  • NYM6986

    I predicted with the addition of Lindor that they would make the playoffs. It looked pretty strong for quite the stretch until I realized that the Mets were hanging on by a thread, had too many starters injured, had essentially lost Jake, and none of the other teams in the division had remotely hit their stride. Can’t in with bench players and AAA players littering the roster. I too thought that Dom Smith And Jeff McNeil would have dominant hitting seasons and play an adequate enough left field and second base. They were both pretty disappointing. Just not sure how you forget how to hit once you know how to do it.
    For 2022 I think we have added sufficient stable talent to the outfield and the infield and my fingers and toes are crossed that our new superstar pitcher remains healthy, and that our existing superstar pitcher remains on the field. How much fun would it be to see the two of them strongly competing for the Cy Young Award.
    Like anyone else, I am predicting one more significant starting pitcher bring added to the roster even if it means sacrificing a Smith, McNeil or JD Davis to get one. And with sufficient cash I predict relevant pieces added at the trade deadline. It would be nice of course if someone would settle this baseball strike and get the players ready to go to spring training. No prediction when that will happen but I am hopeful.

  • Wobbit

    Replacing Cano with Solano (free agent) and pursuing Villar gives us Alonso-Solano-Lindor-Escobar infield with McNeil-Guillorme-Villar bench.

    McNeil, Smith, and Davis each expendable for trades to fill other needs.

  • ChrisF

    No need to hang any heads. Predictions are just for fun and have practically no connection to real life.

    • TexasGusCC

      I predicted the Broncos would blow the lead today: they did.

      LOL, happy new year Buddy!

      • AgingBull

        Are you a Bronco fan, Gus? I have been one since the mid-70s after my family moved from NY to CO.

  • Metsense

    I like the Mets360 projections each year. I try do look at the player’s last three years and average them out and make a projection. Only one player in 2021 exceeded my projection. That was Stroman and the Mets didn’t retain him. Go figure. deGrom was exceeding them but injury short circuited his season. I predicted Lucchesi was going to be better than Peterson (and he was) but again there was an injury. I was good with Nimmo in OPS but because of injury he only play 1/2 of my projected PA. I said Villar was going to take AB from JD Davis. JD was hurt and Villar got an opportunity and he met my expectations. JD was a little short but had a nice year. Alonso also had nice year but also fell a little short of my projection. Everyone else was nowhere in the vicinity that was projected or expected. That and the injuries doomed the season.

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