In his first 12 games after the All-Star break, Taijuan Walker allowed 20 HR in 57 IP. That’s a 3.2 HR/9 rate, one that should have been high enough to have him removed from the rotation. Of course, with all of the injuries, the Mets didn’t have enough starters with Walker, so removing him from the rotation was never really an option.
If you’re the Mets, how do you handle Walker in 2022? He was terrific in the first half and brutal in the final part of 2021. It’s reminiscent of Dillon Gee, who never put a good full season together but was frequently very good for half a year. It was one thing to have that type of performance for a team that was under .500 but can you accept those results if you’re aiming for the playoffs? Or is the good/bad split overrated and we should just consider Walker as the 90 ERA+ guy he was last year? Here’s what the computer models think:
ATC – 4.42 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 8.10 K/9, 3.18 BB/9, 1.44 HR/9
Marcel – 4.18 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 1.4 HR/9
RotoCh – 4.38 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 3.1 BB/9
Steamer – 4.62 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 8.14 K/9, 3.19 BB/9, 1.51 HR/9
THE BAT – 4.64 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 7.63 K/9, 3.38 BB/9, 1.43 HR/9
ZiPS – 4.43 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 8.66 K/9, 3.20 BB/9, 1.43 HR/9
To the best of my knowledge, none of the computer systems consider first half/second half splits. And the reason is – most likely – that there’s not enough worthwhile there, from a predictive point of view, to incorporate them into the overall calculations. Regardless, all five systems that have HR/9 forecasts show a guy with a HR/9 from 1.4 to 1.51, which would be pretty far down the leaderboard.
Looking at pitchers last year with at least 100 IP, a sample of 129 pitchers, there were 50 with a HR/9 of at least 1.4, with Mike Foltynewicz’ 2.27 HR/9 being the worst. You can be a worthwhile pitcher with a HR/9 this high – Robbie Ray had a 3.9 fWAR with a 1.54 rate – but you better do everything else right. Of our 50 pitchers with at least a 1.4 HR/9 last year, only five had an fWAR of 2.0 or greater. On the other end of things, 24 pitchers with a HR/9 that high amassed an fWAR of 1.0 or less, including three who finished in negative numbers. Walker made this list and found himself in the middle ground, as his 1.47 HR/9 helped produce a 1.4 fWAR.
Back in 2017, his first year with the Diamondbacks, Walker posted a 0.97 HR/9 and a 2.5 fWAR, the latter being his career-best mark. His lack of innings has always made accumulating a high fWAR an issue for Walker. In ‘17, he threw 157.1 IP, his third-highest total, behind last year’s 159 and the 169.2 IP he put up in 2015 for the Mariners. That season, Walker had a 1.33 HR/9 and a 1.8 fWAR.
Walker tied his career-high with 29 starts last year. The Mets had to have been pleased with his durability. Now the question is if Walker can add efficiency to durability. Four times last year, Walker reached 100 pitches in an outing. But three of those four games resulted in fewer than 6.0 IP and the fourth was exactly that long. Too many times it was taking Walker an average of 20 pitches per inning over an entire outing. He threw 91 pitches in an appearance that lasted just 3.2 IP and 35 pitches in a 0.1 IP outing.
The optimistic case for Walker is that he reached 20 starts in a season for the first time since 2017 and pitched very well until hitting a wall in late July. The thought would be that Walker proved to himself that he could take the ball every fifth day and now with that hurdle out of the way, he can work on curbing his gopher ball tendencies and being consistent from start to finish.
My opinion was that signing Walker was a good move for the Mets, as there was the potential to get an above-average starter on a bargain deal. Walker was probably worth his contract last year but it was no great bargain. And with the way he finished, it’s far from certain he can put together a full year of quality outings in 2022.
Walker’s ERA in his final 18 starts – which includes his strong game to end the year, along with five starts from the first half of the season – was 5.98 and came with a 5.86 FIP, so he earned that ugly mark. By contrast, Tylor Megill had a 4.52 ERA last year in 18 starts and nobody wants to see him in the Opening Day rotation.
We all saw what could be if everything breaks right for Walker. The first half of 2021 wasn’t theoretical – it actually happened. But so, too, did the second half of the year. Unless the Mets sign two starters, Walker will be in the rotation once the season gets underway. And that’s okay. But if he starts giving up home runs in bunches again, my hope is that the Mets are healthy enough to remove him from the rotation, unlike a season ago. My totally biased forecast for Walker:
4.79 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 1.8 HR/9
This fan has “gotta believe” that Walker will have a great year throughout. Since he hadn’t pitched much the previous two years, it’s at least plausible that he needed last year to build up his stamina. At least, that’s what I’m hoping for.
I think he clearly ran out of gas — for obvious reasons — and there’s every reason to hope for great durability in 2022. To lump the full year together into one statistical pile seems misleading and inaccurate in this case. You have to consider the circumstances, not just the numbers on the spreadsheet. It was a triumph that he lasted the full season.
That said, his first half was fantastic but I’m not counting on a total repeat across a full season.
If he stays healthy, I see an excellent #4 and, btw, I was very impressed with his demeanor on and off the field.
I’m in the camp that he suffered because of the sticky stuff ban rather than fatigue.
I predict we’ll see less than 10 starts from Walker, and then bumped due to a “phantom injury” (though really for ineffectiveness)
Beat me to this: the sticky ban might have contributed, certainly. I read a smart piece, early in the ban, projecting which type of pitcher might have issues with it & Walker was on that list. Maybe just needs an adjustment period. Maybe it’s a big problem.
He’s good pitcher and I don’t believe the ban was enough for him to drop off the cliff like that. I mean, wouldn’t we have seen that with many pitchers across all of baseball?
We do know that pitchers struggle when they are asked to bump up their total innings from year to year. It’s something that every team keeps an eye on. Stands to reason that was a factor for Walker, too. I’m glad he pitched through it rather than shut it down: an investment in the next season.
I wish his fastball had more movement.
I did some more research and here’s an interesting take on why more pitchers were not affected.
The gist of it is that a pitcher like Walker Buehler was effective before the ban but was relying very heavily on just his fastball, but after the ban, changed to a lot more breaking balls to compensate for lower spin rate, and thus was able to stay effective.
So maybe other pitchers weren’t as negatively affected because they learned that they need to use their secondary pitches more whereas Walker didn’t get the memo.
I’m always way too optimistic on these projections. With that caveat:
3.9 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 1.5 HR/9
25 G
168 IP
The entire fate of the Mets rest with the words “if he stays healthy.” Pick a player any player – Walker, deGrom, Davis, Nimmo, néed I go on? If we stay healthy we will be in contention. I like Walker and I too believe he ran out of gas. We need him to be closer to the first half Walker.
I think the first half Walker is closer to who he is. But the loss sticky might bite into that either some. The Mets wound up needing him more than they should have had JDG stayed healthy and CC been active… might have played a part in his decline.
I hope they give the guy some breathers… stretch him out to last all season. I saw the guy pitch a lot… I liked what I saw:
28 starts / 153 IP / 3.95 / 1.35 / 10 Wins
4.56 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 1.5 HR/9
It isn’t easy to predict Walker. In 2020 and the first half of 2021 he pitched like an all-star. The second half of 2021 he pitched like a sticky bun without the sticky glaze.
You know…. crummy.