One thing that I’ve tried to emphasize is that in discussions over the CBA, it’s always the owners who have a harder time sticking together than the players. According tho SNY’s Andy Martino, here’s the issue facing the owners’ lead negotiator, Dan Halem:

Halem and commissioner Rob Manfred can, in good faith, personally want the season to begin on time. But that they are already dealing with four no’s on a non-starter proposal underscores the challenge of holding together their coalition, and assembling an offer to the players that small and large-market owners alike can live with.

Some of the more hawkish owners — who claim financial hardship without showing their books — felt on Tuesday that they had already made a significant compromise in agreeing to a 12-team expanded playoff field, rather than 14 teams, which MLB strongly preferred.

The four no’s referenced above are the owners who won’t vote for a proposal where the CBT is above $220 million. The players are currently firm in wanting it to start at $230 million. Owners need 23 votes to ratify an agreement.

Some fans wonder why the two sides just can’t meet in the middle of where the various proposals between the two sides currently stand. And this is why. These four owners need to find just four others willing to agree with them to scuttle any deal.

And it’s not always easy to figure out who these four radical owners are. You would think it would be small market owners but that’s not always the case. Jerry Reinsdorf has generally been one of these “hawks” in the past and he runs the Chicago White Sox.

Manfred essentially has to write off whoever these four owners are and make a deal that 23 of the remaining 26 owners will accept. Right now, too many of the “swing” owners will side with the hawks. Now it’s just a matter of how long those swing owners will dig in their heels.

The players aren’t going to get everything on their wish list. But they are certainly going to do better than the owners’ “last and best” proposal from a few days ago. And if previous work stoppages are any indication, we’ll wonder why it took so long to get the deal finished. And it’s because the swing owners took too long to read the writing on the wall.

4 comments on “Swing owners and reading the writing on the wall

  • BrianJ

    Evan Drellich of The Athletic has the four owners:

    Bob Castellini of the Reds, Chris Ilitch of the Tigers, Ken Kendrick of the Diamondbacks and Arte Moreno of the Angels

    So, while Reinsdorf isn’t playing the same role he did in the 94-95 stoppages we still have the Angels and Tigers, who generally aren’t thought of as small-market teams.

  • T.J.

    That’s an interesting list of 4. Very interesting, if accurate.

  • JimmyP

    My understanding is that 3 of those 4 voted against Cohen as an owner.

    Again, as discussed, this is as much an issue of owners vs. owners than owners vs. players.

    The one big chip the players have is jumping from 12 to 14 teams in the playoffs. They need to hold that until the owners give something equally valuable back (what that is, I don’t know). Then I think we’ll see a deal.

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