One of the things that I’ve learned since starting Mets360 is that nearly every reliever, in every season, goes thru a stretch of roughly 6-12 games where they are significantly worse – an ERA at least twice as high – than they are the rest of the season. Perhaps no one better illustrates this point than Adam Ottavino.

From 4/23-5/4, Ottavino pitched in six games and in 5 IP allowed 7 ER for a 12.60 ERA. In the five games before the streak started, he did not allow a run in 4.2 IP. And in the 35 games since, Ottavino has a 1.01 ERA, a 0.841 WHIP and has limited hitters to a .508 OPS.

Here are the other bad streak for Mets relievers with at least 40 IP, a number chosen to exclude Trevor Williams, who has bounced back and forth between starting and relieving.

Edwin Diaz – 5/12-5/24, 6 games, 6.35 ERA. In 28 games since, has a 0.31 ERA
Seth Lugo – 4/11-5/18, 14 games, 5.54 ERA. In 29 games since, has a 2.59 ERA
Drew Smith – 6/29-7/24, 8 games, 8.68 ERA. In previous 29 games, had a 1.99 ERA

For whatever reason, relievers tend to bunch their bad games together. Maybe they’re injured, like it appears happened with Smith above or with Trevor May, who had an 8.64 ERA in 8 games to start the year before hitting the IL. Or maybe there’s a mechanical issue, like what appears to be the case with Lugo. Or maybe it’s something else entirely.

Another thing to note is that it’s entirely possible for a reliever to have multiple bad stretches in a year. Just because the club’s top relievers have had a bad stretch doesn’t mean they can’t run into another one before the season is out.

Joely Rodriguez doesn’t meet our IP requirement but has the same pattern. In 16 games, he had an 8.53 ERA. In the 18 games before that he had a 3.68 ERA and in the five games afterwards, he has a 1.35 ERA.

It’s absolutely no fun to see the relievers pitch in the middle of their bad stretch. But we should keep in mind that it’s likely only temporary. Yeah, yeah – easier said than done.

7 comments on “Wednesday catch-all thread (8/17/22)

  • TexasGusCC

    Two years ago, the New York Rangers were a very talented and young team. But, because they didn’t have the physicality that NHL teams have, they were exploited, beaten up, and didn’t make the playoffs. The President of this rebuild was John Davidson and he did a great job packing the system with young talent, but since he didn’t see the need to get any enforcers, he was fired by the owner. His assistant was hired, and he changed the coach, brought in a couple to talented players that can also protect some of the younger guys from getting roughed up, and the team went to the conference finals.

    Onto the Mets. We see how this dearth of power can hurt when the hits aren’t falling. Yes, there is talent and many good players, but overall, the lineup lacks homerun power as shown by the other top teams. Does this bother you? Do they need to do a Rangers thpe abrupt change or can they make it gradually? I would prefer abrupt, but with everyone signed through at least next season, I can only see Nimmo’s roster spot opening up. Possibly Guillorme and make Escobar utility and sign a bat there…

    • Brian Joura

      I’m probably the biggest proponent of building your offense thru power that comments here. But I don’t believe the Mets need to chase power in the offseason.

      They’re middle of the pack in power now. And that’s with getting less than expected HR production from 3B, C and especially DH. Before the trade deadline, essentially the only HR production they got from the DH slot was when Alonso or Lindor played there. They had 10 HR and Alonso had 5 and Lindor had 1.

      Vogelbach has already hit 3 HR in 69 PA.

      If we pencil in Alonso for 35, the DH slot for 30, Lindor for 25 – you’ve got 3 solid power options in the lineup. And Marte and Nimmo (if he returns) are good for more, while McNeil and Canha should offer double digits.

      And you can see HR on the horizon from 3B and C.

      • Woodrow

        Baty will play a lot of 3B and Alvarez might force his way into at least a platoon at catch.

    • Metsense

      Last off season they did do abrupt changes adding three starting position players, two starters and two relievers because they only won 77 games. Right now they’re on pace to win 100+ games and already they have 75 wins .They don’t need another abrupt change. They’re doing great with the second best winning percentage in the NL. Since 2016, they did hit homeruns and didn’t make the playoffs. This year they have a more balanced team and should be the division champ. That doesn’t bother me one bit!

  • Woodrow

    They’re on track for 100+ wins. They’re in first pace by 31/2 games. Scherzer and DeGrom are pitching the next two games. Don’t worry,be happy.

  • Woodrow

    Hey,the Phil’s are playing good ball. Their pitching has really improved..

  • JimO

    It is nice to see the Mets reaching down into the farm system for a possible impact player. So having Baty (or Alvarez to potentially call up) could inject some intriguing energy into the team. We’re in the toughest stretch of the year – just got to make it to next weekend’s series against the Rockies with a few wins.

    The Braves are a really good team and losing our starting pitchers in the 2nd inning two nights in a row to them (not to mention Guillorme) was a tough hand to be dealt.

    The bright spot is that we may have found a nice little card to play again with Ruf’s pitching.

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