Mets need vintage Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom to win in the playoffs

The Mets outscored the Padres this year, 772-705. The Mets had the better bullpen, with a 3.55 ERA compared to a 3.83 mark for the Padres. In FanGraphs’ Defensive Runs Above Average (DEF), the Mets led the Padres, 5.9-3.6. But with all of those advantages, the way the Mets beat the Padres is for Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom to be the best versions of themselves, something they haven’t done a whole lot of here lately.

Scherzer gets the start in Game 1 but he’s coming off his worst start of the year, a 5.2 IP, 4 ER effort against the Braves on 10/1. That earned a Game Score of just 39. Game Score is a metric to determine how effective a starting pitcher is, with 50 being an average outing. Scherzer had a Game Score above 50 in 23 of his 26 games this year. But the Mets don’t need him to just be average or slightly above – they need him to be better than that. In 13 of his 23 starts, Scherzer had a 61 or better Game Score, with a high of 82. In that outing, he allowed just two hits and a walk over seven shutout innings. If Scherzer is close to that type of start, the Mets should feel good. If he’s closer to what he was last time out against the Braves, the Mets are going to be in trouble.

The club has been playing its cards close to the vest as to who will get the start in Game 2. In an ideal world, Scherzer wins the first game, they use Chris Bassitt to close out the series and then have deGrom to start the NLDS against the Dodgers. But if Scherzer loses, or Bassitt fails in the second game, then it’ll be up to deGrom to be the guy he’s been pretty much since he put a Mets uniform on, not the pitcher with the 6.00 ERA in his last four outings.

After spending most of the year on the IL, deGrom returned and pitched great. In his first seven starts after being activated, deGrom was 5-1 with a 1.66 ERA and a 1.38 FIP. The final two starts of that stretch were back-to-back outings of 7 IP – the first one against the Dodgers – where he allowed a total of 1 ER, with 2 BB and 17 Ks. Those two outings earned him Game Scores of 78 and 75. deGrom had five of his 11 outings with a Game Score of at least 70, with three of those coming against playoff teams in the Dodgers, Phillies and Braves. Life becomes a lot easier if deGrom reverts to that type of performance. Of course, if deGrom had been that way against the A’s in his penultimate start of the year, the Mets would have won the division. That’s the day the offense staked him to a 3-0 lead in the top of the first, only to see deGrom put up a Game Score of 31 in a game the Mets lost, 10-4.

No one doubts the types of pitchers that deGrom and Scherzer have been throughout their careers. But it’s important to note that they’ve been good in the postseason, too. deGrom’s only pitched in the playoffs in 2015, his second season in the majors. He was great in the NLDS and NLCS, where in three games, he was 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA. He was the winning pitcher in Game 5 of the NLDS, where he rebounded from allowing two runs in the first inning to follow up with five scoreless frames, outdueling Zack Greinke – who was 19-3 with a 1.66 ERA that year – in the process.

Scherzer has a much more extensive postseason record than deGrom, appearing in the playoffs in eight seasons during his career, dating back to 2011 with the Tigers. In 128.2 IP in the postseason, Scherzer has a 3.22 ERA. He won three games in the playoffs for the 2019 Nationals. And he pitched brilliantly last year for the Dodgers in the NLDS against the Giants, allowing just 1 ER in 8 IP with 1 BB and 12 Ks. It’s that type of effort the Mets hope to get from him when he takes the mound against the Padres.

The Padres have pretty good pitching, too, and will send out Yu Darvish to face Scherzer. The Mets have had virtually no success versus Darvish, both this year and throughout his career. Lifetime, Darvish has a 5-0 record against the Mets, with a 2.56 ERA in 52.2 IP. In 2022, Darvish allowed just 1 ER in 14 IP against the Mets, with 1 BB and 15 Ks.

The Mets’ offense this year was best known for grinding at-bats and wearing pitchers down early, a feat they were unable to do versus Darvish in either start. Hopefully they can break thru in their third shot at him. When the Mets faced Darvish, they did not have Daniel Vogelbach (139 OPS+ as a Met and 2-3 lifetime versus Darvish) and neither Mark Canha nor Eduardo Escobar had yet to hit his stride. Everyone talks about how the Padres didn’t have Juan Soto for most of the year. But the Mets squad that Darvish will be facing is different, too.

Still, it’s unreasonable to expect a big offensive night for the Mets versus Darvish, which makes it imperative for a vintage Scherzer outing for the Mets to have a chance. I can’t wait to see this pitching matchup.