“The answer to this question is more difficult to answer, but to do so I must first dispense with a common statement i’ve seen on this blog: Pelfrey is the same this year as before. This is an incorrect statement. Pelfrey’s xFIP is usually the root cause of this assertion, but there are several reasons why it’s wrong.
First, on the most basic level, Pelfrey has now 3 and a half seasons of outperforming (by a bit) the standard 11% HR/FB ratio, meaning xFIP is underrating him and thus might not be the best measure for him.
Second, as we can see this year, Pelfrey’s pitch repertoire has changed this year, so that he has even attempted to throw the fastball at a lower frequency than before. This makes him pretty much by definition NOT the same pitcher as before. Moreover, he’s likely to build upon his new use of the splitter for the future.
Fortunately…there’s no reason to really answer this question just yet. Pelfrey is up for arbitration, and he’ll get a raise for sure. It’s Pelfrey’s first time in arbitration, so the Mets have control of him for at least 3 more years. There is no reason, with his pitch repertoire very likely to change, for the Mets to commit themselves to Pelfrey just yet…especially as we’ll control him through arbitration for each of his years in his prime. The Mets should simply accept paying Pelf whatever an arbiter decides he is worth and leave a longer-term deal off the table for now.”
garik16 concluding an informative two-part series on 2010 Mike Pelfrey
Source: Amazin’ Avenue
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