Cliff Lee signed a five-year, $120 million contract with the Phillies, which includes a 2016 option which may become guaranteed based on performance. The contract also has a limited no-trade clause. The signing gives the Phillies a starting rotation that takes a back seat to no one and further strengthens the team that won the most games in baseball during the regular season in 2010.

It also gives us a stunning contrast to the Mets in philosophies on how to manage payroll. While Sandy Alderson went on record saying that he did not want to sign any free agent deals that would compromise payroll flexibility that the team will have next offseason, Ruben Amaro Jr., his Philadelphia counterpart, aggressively spent money when a good option presented itself.

The Mets have somewhere in the vicinity of $55 million in payroll in expiring contracts to free agents next year. The Phillies have at least $40 million in payroll in expiring contracts next year, along with buyouts for Roy Oswalt ($16 million versus $2 million buyout) and Brad Lidge ($12.5/$1.5).

An argument can be made that signing Lee is a good move for the Phillies since they have a veteran club likely to make the playoffs. If the Phillies win the World Series, the Lee contract could pay for itself. On the flip side, the argument goes, signing Lee would not even guarantee the Mets a playoff spot, so why should they commit that much money to a guy on the wrong side of 30?

Perhaps signing Lee was the right move for Philadelphia and being on the sidelines was the right move for New York.

As hard as it is to believe, Lee left money on the table to sign the deal he did with the Phillies. Both the Yankees and Rangers offered more money than what he agreed to, so he would not have signed that contract with the Mets even if they offered it to him. When the Phillies dealt Lee to the Mariners last offseason, Lee was shocked as he thought the two sides were closing in on an extension to keep him in Philadelphia. This is where he wanted to be.

Phillies ownership went the extra mile for their fans, handing out a huge contract to the top free agent pitcher on the market. Good for them. But how should Mets fans consider this signing?

Is it okay because the Mets were unlikely to compete this year and the deal will hamstring the Phillies in the future?
Is it a disaster because it buys time for the Phillies’ low-level prospects to mature, thus guaranteeing a dynasty in Philadelphia?

Only time will tell. However, I think there’s noting wrong with extending money for stars. Teams get in trouble when they overpay stiffs. According to FanGraphs, Lee has been worth $28.3, $29.6 and $32.4 million the past three years. I think it is safe to say he is not a stiff.

Few doubt that Lee will be worth the money the next two-to-three years. It is the back end of the contract that everyone worries about, along with his health. So, is the increased chance of winning the World Series in the next three years worth the overpay in the final three years, assuming he reaches his vesting option?

The Phillies think so, while I think it is safe to say that is not a contract Alderson would likely do if he was running the ship in Philadelphia.

I criticized Amaro Jr. for trading away Lee in the first place and I criticized him for the Ryan Howard extension. But I think he made the right move here. Lee is a potential difference maker and now the rotation goes from a possible trouble spot to a team strength.

Alderson had neither the bullets nor the stomach to make Lee a New York Met this season. I just hope down the road when the Mets are faced with a similar decision, that Alderson pulls the trigger.

The Phillies let a high-priced free agent walk away, even though Jayson Werth was very productive for them the past four seasons. Can you imagine Omar Minaya doing this? He re-signed every free agent who played halfway decent for the Mets.

Instead, Amaro Jr. opted to plug in his top prospect, Domonic Brown, into Werth’s position and use his salary to address other needs. It’s something that a team with deep pockets, a good farm system and a big-picture GM should do.

5 comments on “Should Cliff Lee deal worry Mets?

  • Jonathan

    This deal just doesn’t pass the sniff test. Who in their right mind would leave $40-50 mil on the table to go to Philadelphia? Especially when there had to be lingering resentment over the trade to Seattle, unless there was a wink and a nod given at the time of the trade assuring Lee that the Phillies would vie for his services again in the off season. Given the proximity to his home and the fact that they just won the pennant together, I thought Texas had the inside track on this one. I think the bottom line is that Lee prefers pitching in the NL versus the AL. If that’s true the Mets might have had a chance with an offer somewhere in between Philly and what the Yanks and Rangers were offering.

    • Brian Joura

      It’s certainly reasonable to think that Lee preferred pitching in the NL and not beyond the realm of possibility that the Phillies and Lee had some understanding after the trade last year.

      My main thing is that it reinforces that it was a bad idea for the Phillies to trade him last year. None of the three guys they got for him made their Top 10 prospect list by BA. And they didn’t make it to the World Series without him. They wasted a year of Howard and Utley’s prime.

  • Mike Koehler

    I recall hearing something on ESPN that the Philly deal was actually the most amount of money in total. Dunno how they broke it down.

    Another thought, when did Lee become an ace? Sure he throws more than 200 innings, but his ERA is almost always over 3 and he regularly sports a WHIP over 1. That’s fantastic No. 2 numbers, but to spend $24 million a season for those numbers…

    • Brian Joura

      While Lee had a 3.18 ERA last year, which was the sixth-best mark in the American League, his peripherals indicated that he was a better pitcher than he was in 2008, when he won the Cy Young Award. Last year both his FIP (2.58) and xFIP (3.23) were lower than the season he went 22-3.

      As for the contract, it has been twisted different ways, a feat made easier since no one knows for sure what the Yankees and Rangers officially offered. The Yankees reportedly offered $154 million over seven years while Lee signed for five years and $120 million with a $27.5 million club option which almost certainly will be turned down. The $120 million includes the $12.5 million buyout of the sixth season. So, will Lee make $34 million in the two years after his Phillies deal expires in what will be his age 37 and 38 seasons? I tend to doubt it.

  • Mike C.

    Alderson made the right move by not signing Lee.

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