I am not clear why more people are not excited about the offensive potential of the 2012 Mets. It appears that the majority are focused on what the club lost and does not have, rather than what it retains and does have. In an effort to highlight what the current Mets may put up offensively, I am going to compare them to the 1986 Mets.
The World Champs led the National League with a 4.83 runs per game in 1986. The average NL team scored 4.18 runs per game that season. In 2011, the average NL team scored 4.13 runs per game, so if 2012 follows 2011, we are talking about pretty similar run-scoring environments.
Let’s do a position-by-position breakdown, with offensive numbers taken from Baseball-Reference’s 1986 Mets batting splits page and compare them to the expected starter for the 2012 club, using the Bill James projections available on FanGrpahs.
Catcher
1986 – .778 OPS – Primary starter Gary Carter .776 OPS
2012 – Josh Thole .722 OPS
Edge 1986
First Base
1986 – .861 OPS – Primary starter Keith Hernandez .859 OPS
2012 – Ike Davis .881 OPS
Edge 2012
Second Base
1986 – .722 OPS – Primary starter Wally Backman .761 OPS
2012 – Daniel Murphy .811 OPS
Edge 2012
Third Base
1986 – .798 OPS – Primary starter Ray Knight .775 OPS
2012 – David Wright .862 OPS
Edge 2012
Shortstop
1986 – .619 OPS – Primary starter Rafael Santana .539 OPS
2012 – Ruben Tejada .656 OPS
Edge 2012
Left Field
1986 – .690 OPS – Primary starter George Foster .718 OPS
2012 – Jason Bay .791 OPS
Edge 2012
Center Field
1986 – .854 OPS – Primary starter Lenny Dykstra .822 OPS
2012 – Andres Torres .737 OPS
Edge 1986
Right Field
1986 – .889 OPS – Primary starter Darryl Strawberry .865 OPS
2012 – Lucas Duda .852 OPS
Edge 1986
The 2012 Bill James forecasts have this year’s Mets team projected to do better than the league-leading 1986 Mets in five of the eight positions on the field.
Now, there are many, many flaws with the above “analysis,” which is meant to be taken with a giant boulder of salt. But before you resign yourself to the Mets finishing in last place and challenging for 100 losses this year, take a second to contemplate the offense they are likely to put out onto the field.
Last season the Mets finished sixth in the league in runs per game with a 4.43 runs per game average, well above the 4.13 NL average. And while they will no longer have Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes, they hope to have full seasons from Davis, Duda, Murphy and Wright to pick up the slack. With the fences coming in, there is hope that the numbers will improve over these projections, which did not take into account the new ballpark dimensions.
Only one team in the NL lost 100 games last year and Houston’s offense was below average at 3.80 runs per game. The Pirates lost 105 games in 2010 and had the worst offense in the league with a 3.62 rpg average. The Nationals lost 103 games in 2009 and finished 10th in the league in scoring. No NL team this century lost 100 games and finished in the top half of the league in runs per game.
The last Mets team to lose 100 games was the 1993 club, which went 59-103 and finished 13th in the 14-team NL with a 4.15 rpg. In a higher run-scoring environment than what exists today, the ’93 Mets had just one starter finish with an OPS over .800 while three regulars placed below .700 for the year. The 2012 Bill James projections have four Mets regulars finishing with an OPS over .800 and only one with a sub-.700 mark.
Of course, pitching and defense matter, too, which is why no one is considering this year’s team to be playoff contenders. But there’s a big gulf between playoff contenders and 100-loss teams and it’s silly to think that a team that with an offense as good as this one projects to be will finish with triple-digits in losses.
I’ve been predicting a 79-83 year for our beloved Mets. The crime is that if the Wilponzis had allowed $120 million or so to have been spent, we could have kept Reyes and added a pretty good starting pitcher and improved the bench, as well as improving the bullpen (which was done). That—with Duda et al. here for a full season—might have given the Mets a short at the playoffs.
*shot*
You’re related to the Wilpons, How exactly? Does the word Pitching mean anything to you? The ’69 team won it all with a team batting avg. of 239. That starting staff did not give up a home run in the month of September. Seaver, Kooseman, Gentry.
Hi Bill – thanks for missing the point and commenting!
FWIW – Jim McAndrew gave up a HR on 9/19, Jerry Koosman gave up a HR on 9/21 (G1) and Don Cardwell gave up a HR on 9/21 (G2) as SP in 1969
2012 is going to be anything but rosy, and I have my doubts about the immediate future. You can compare the OBP or any stat you’d like, but it’s just not going to make the fans ignore the overall situation – ranging from losing Reyes to having weak pitching.
I’m not predicting a 100 loss season either – even if that meant a beastly draft pick, but I’d cap the wins at 70, maybe 75 if it all broke right.
A healthy Davis at first and Wright at third offset the loss of Reyes and Beltran. The addition of a center fielder (Torres) who can catch a fly ball will put at least five games back into the win column and if he knows which base to throw the ball to after catching it that should be good for another three to five games in the win column. Any productivity out of Bay is a plus. THe rebuilt bullpen should result in a winning percentage more indicative of the first half of last season compared to the performance of the second half. Furthermore, Wright should be gone by mid year, Murphy will play third, Turner to second and run production increases. Also, by mid year, the young arms should begin to appear on the mound with the trading of some current starters who will be seen as valuable to some pennant contender looking for insurance and are willing to overpay with their top prospects. I think we take some giant strides forward this year watching a team filled with players who want to prove they belong rather than watch a bunch of overpaid egomaniacs who think they are entitled.(See Jets receivers vs. Giant receivers if you don’t understand.)
Hey Bob – thanks for reading and commenting!
I agree with a lot of what you say but there’s no way the Mets replace Wright with Turner and have run production increase.
As A Long Suffering Met Fan, your analysis didn’t give me much hope. I still haven’t recovered from Luis Castillo dropping that fly ball. I was in Philly when the Mets started there losing streak and blew there lead. I have watched to many Free Agents just stink when they get here, or get hurt and can’t play. The Wilpons should sell to someone with money and desire to win. I love my Mets and always will, but do they love me back. I can’t spend the money anymore while they screw me. You have to buy a 6 now 7 pack if you want to see a Yankee-Met game and have to take other games you don’t want or are harder to get to. My 13 Saturday Plan was Changed to A Ten Saturday games and 3 games they choose. My seats were way out in Right Field and 2 rows from the top. The climb up and down was not for me. As A faithful plan holder for more than 10 years, they insulted me when they said I could not go in there Promenade Club, I was one section to far they said. My tickets cost 20 dollars plus depending on what game you went to. They charge allot of money for seats and when you get there you have an obstructed view. I have sat almost everywhere in citi field. The Pepsi Porch cost 40-50 dollars and you can’t see Right field to Center below you. Citi Field is Beautiful, but they could have made sure that almost everybody gets a good sight line. I have moved to Florida and I was getting MLB Extra Innings Just so I could watch My Mets, but I can’t stand the heartache any more. So no MLB Extra Innings this year. I will still root for my team, but not for the people who are running things. Oh by the way, The Promenade Club also has Obstructed views and was not a enjoyable place to watch the game anyway. I did get in sometimes when they weren’t being assholes. I like the food, not the view. Lets Go Mets!!!!
I don’t know where the Wilpons are going, but if you can’t go after the talent that best
suits the team and will improve and put your team in contention, then sell the team to
someone who will. I’ve been a Met fan for almost 40 years and for the most part I get
disappointed almost every year. Wake up, think pitching, pitching, pitching!!!!
Even if the Mets were flush with cash, spending any real money on this year’s crop of free agent pitchers would be ridiculously dumb.
Edwin Jackson and CJ Wilson? Not exactly Cole Hamels, Matt Cain, and Zack Greinke. I’m hoping the Mets will sign Anibal Sanchez next year.
Maybe Jackson and Wilson are not Hamels, Cain, and Greinke, but they’re also not Pelfrey, Gee, and Niese…..
Yeah, I’ve got to agree with Steve S. here. Jackson and Wilson may end up overpaid but even in a down year, I’m pretty convinced they’ll outperform Gee.
I wouldn’t grossly overpay for those guys, Jackson’s nothing better than mid-rotation guy and Wilson is a No. 2 at best, but you could certainly trade other players for pitching and sign less-in-demand players to fill those holes.
To say the team couldn’t do anything this winter with real money is crazier than Ozzy on a train!
Niese is so much better than those other two dregs, there isn’t a reason to lump them together like that.
Pelfrey and Gee aren’t good, but in a year that you didn’t have a real shot at contending anyway there isn’t any real reason to overpay for an unimpressive player. Then you have Jason Bay, right? If you could have Harvey or Wheeler as a staff anchor (or both if we’re lucky) and Mejia or Familia filling out the rotation with Niese that would be ideal, but I would rather go after a true ace to supplant a homegrown core of pitchers than waste time and resources filling out the back of the rotation.
There’s no real evidence that Niese is that much better than Gee and Pelfrey. Their ERA+’s last year were 84, 84, and 78, respectively, in fact.
Yes, we have hopes that Harvey and Wheeler will be top-of-the-rotation guys—and maybe they will—but, in the meantime, we’re not “punting” in 2012, supposedly. To be competitive in this division, and have a shot at the playoffs this year, we should have traded for a Shields or signed a Jackson or Wilson with the money that the Wilponzis didn’t spend. And such a player would be around in 2013 and beyond—along with Harvey and Wheeler.
The past two years, Niese has been really good before hitting a wall in the 2nd half.
2010 – first 23 starts he was 8-5 with a 3.33 ERA
2011 – first 20 starts he was 9-7 with a 3.73 ERA
Even with the poor finishes to both of those years, Niese’s xFIP both seasons was quite good. In 2010 he had a 3.80 xFIP and last year it was 3.28.
I know you can say that Gee had the good start last year, too. But it was half as long as Niese. In his first 13 games, covering 10 starts, Gee was 7-0 with a 2.86 ERA. In his final 17 starts he had a 5.51 ERA. And for the year his xFIP was 4.46
I think there’s a dramatic difference between Niese and Gee. While their ERAs were close last year, I doubt we’ll ever see that again over a full season.
The above is interesting but baseball has changed a lot since 1986. And Reyes and Beltran are gone. Most players’ stats will suffer. Ike and Duda were injured last year and we can only hope for the best from them.
Personally, I hope the Mets lose 100 games and the Wilpons are forced to sell the team. Two men, one really (Jeff Wilpon) holding 5+ million fans hostage and running the team as if it were in Pittsburgh.
I bet the Mets win about 70 games given the strength of the NL East. I hope I’m right.
The Mets offense has not been the problem, they will put up enough runs.The problem is their defense and starting pitching will give up more runs. Starting pitching has not been addressed at all this winter and defense only slightly. Torres should now be more consistent than Pagan in the field. If a starter goes down early, this season could turn from bad to a disaster. I thought they needed to make some trades to clear up the duplication of positions and improve the team.
If we could put the Wilpons in the same taxi that Duanar Sanchez took, we might be moving forward in the right direction. How come Selig jumps all over the Dodgers when their Owner goes to divorce court, yet the Mets have borrowed $40 million twice, and he’s not stepping in on these Ponzi Fonzies ?! BTW, if we play .500 ball, I’d be happy. I just can’t believe we haven’t fetched Fielder, yet. Don’t get me wrong, I love Ike Davis, (He’s on my ‘Keeper’ Fantasy team) but if Prince had been underneath Wright’s foot, he wouldn’t have had his big fat ankle messed up! Show me the$$$$$$
[…] Brian Joura pointed out on Monday, offense likely won’t be the Mets problem in 2012. The pitching, well that’s a different story. […]