Chris Walendin’s piece on the Mets’ effective payroll got me thinking about the switch from Jose Reyes to Ruben Tejada. There’s a chance that 2011 was Reyes’ career year, only he did it in 586 PA rather than 700+ PA. Reyes accumulated 6.2 fWAR last year. This year, 60 people have registered predictions for Reyes over at FanGraphs. Combined, they project slightly more playing time for Reyes – 624 PA – but a drop to 4.5 fWAR.
Meanwhile, Tejada last year had 1.8 WAR in 376 PA. If Tejada matches his 2011 production over 624 PA, he would be nearly a 3.0 WAR player, at minimum wage instead of the eight figures that Reyes is pulling down. Meanwhile, 26 people have projected Tejada over at FanGraphs and they combined to give him 574 PA this year and a 2.4 WAR.
Tejada has never been a highly-touted prospect. He didn’t earn a big signing bonus and he never appeared on a Baseball America Top 100 list. But he was in the majors doing a solid job at age 21. He’s not going to be as productive as Reyes on a per PA basis. But he’s likely to be healthier than Reyes over the life of Reyes’ big free agent deal, and won’t be contributing as much to the deficit, as outlined in Chris’ story.
In the last three years, Reyes has averaged 98 games per year. Over the last five years, it’s 123 games. If Reyes averages 98 games over the life of his contract with the Marlins, I think Mets fans will be ecstatic that he spent time on the DL in Miami while Tejada played SS in New York. Obviously, the Marlins are banking on 123 (or more) per season.
The only thing we know for sure is that Reyes will not be contributing to the Mets in 2012. They won’t have the upside of a 6.2 WAR performance from shortstop. But neither will they face a $2.2 million deficit with him like they did from his two DL stints. And for those who worry about how the Mets will do without Reyes, they were 17-21 in games he did not start in 2011, which works out to a 72-win season.
MetsBlog has video of new third base coach Tim Teufel talking about Ruben Tejada.
Judge Rakoff placed the burden of proof at a high level for Irving Picard in his clawback lawsuits against the Wilpons. If Noreen Harrington is telling the truth, it may be game over for the Wilpons. As Howard Megdal tells it we’ve got a credible witness in Harrington going up against the “I don’t remember” defense of the Sterling Equities Partners.
Regardless of who made the decision, denying Howard Megdal a credential to any Mets game this year is insane. Greg Prince shows how this decision came to be.
Keith Law picked Domingo Tapia as the Mets’ top sleeper prospect. Law’s story is an ESPN Insider feature so this link goes to Rob Castellano’s riff on the Law news.
I was really struggling for column ideas so I visited the official Mets site, something I haven’t done since, well let’s just say it’s been awhile. Didn’t come up with any ideas but I did stumble across this mailbag column by Anthony DiComo that I thought was pretty good.
Give Ed Leyro credit – he worked a Jeremy Lin reference into a story about the Mets. Linsanity, indeed! The story is about Jonathon Niese, although we also need to know how Lin and Melo will mesh on the court.