Mets Minors: Great expectations

My father’s family name being Pirrip, and my Christian name Philip, my infant tongue could make of both names nothing longer or more explicit than Pip. So, I called myself Pip, and came to be called Pip. If you’d prefer to continue down this verbose and wholly boring work of literature… you probably should visit a different site.  I will say, that like Pip, the Mets have the potential in their future for greatness but also that it’s likely Mrs. Havisham is only trying to heighten our disappointment for her own sick amusement.

The Mets have had their share of disappointing prospects through the years.  We have all heard the references to the Bill Pulsipher, Paul Wilson and Jason Isringhausen trio that had been dubbed “Generation K”.  A trio of “Can’t Miss” prospects who were supposed to usher in a new era of Met pitching like the glory days of Nolan Ryan and Doc Gooden.  We also know how “Generation K” wound up… which makes us wonder why we’d be so brazen as to name Harvey, Wheeler, Familia and Mejia “Generation 2-K”.

I was listening to WFAN and they were talking about odds in terms of top prospects.  It’s not an exact science but I believe the percentages went:

  • 30% Never Amount To Anything
  • 30% Become Part-Time Players (4th OFs, Middle Relief, AAAA)
  • 25% Become Average Players (Mike Pelfrey)
  • 10% Become Better Players
  • 5% Become All Stars

This would mean that the chances of all 4 of the members of “Generation 2-K” being all-stars has around a .000625% chance of happening (625 in a Million).  However… probability isn’t exactly written in stone.  It’s not as if the Math Police will come to break Mejia’s knee caps if the Mets wind up with 4 Aces.  It is a call to temper your enthusiasm regarding these prospects.

Asking Met fans to do this is like asking a starving child to not think about food.  The MLB franchise isn’t exactly poised to make a lot of positive headlines at the moment and the farm system is one of the bright spots for Met fans to cling to.  I’ll be in the same boat with other fans that look out to the horizon of 2013, 14 and 15 and see a bright future, but I can’t imagine that future isn’t without its own perils.

Update:

Kirk Nieuwenhuis played in Friday’s intrasquad game and blasted a 2 run HR while going 1-2 in the game.  I had been under the impression that Kirk would not be able to play to start the 2012 season.  If he’s healthy enough to play through all of Spring Training then he’s got a legitimate chance for a roster spot.  Based on the numbers he has put up in the minors he might be a better leadoff option than most of the guys the Mets can toss out there.

Before we go overboard… he hit a HR… in Spring Training… in an intrasquad game… off a minor league caliber pitcher.  Let’s all take a deep breath before we start going ballistic about he and Familia after a single scrimmage.  Seeing him play is good news for the Met’s chances in 2012.

4 comments for “Mets Minors: Great expectations

  1. chris
    March 3, 2012 at 11:30 am

    it’s funny everybody looks at their top minor league prospects and hopes for the best and see’s them all as future all stars .. but the reality is they don’t all have to be all stars to have a great team .. lets look at the mets top 4 pitching prospects (niese, harvey, wheeler & familia) .. they don’t all have to be top of the rotation starters .. if you get a #1, #2 & (2) #3 than that’s a pretty good staff

    • David Groveman
      March 5, 2012 at 8:50 am

      In the end, I think the Mets have enough top talent that SOMEONE has to succeed.

  2. AJ
    March 4, 2012 at 12:35 am

    Hey, once you dissed Charles Dickens in your intro, I stopped reading.

    • David Groveman
      March 5, 2012 at 8:49 am

      Then I’ll have to continue bashing works of literature until we find some common ground. I detested Ethan Frome… how about you?

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