Here’s how the Mets could outsmart and outpitch the league.

Mets pitchersIt sure feels like Christmas for Mets fans with a deep-pocketed, new owner ready to spend and a capable and familiar President of Baseball Operations ushering in a new front office equipped to recognize and harness the talent this franchise needs to get us back to playing baseball in October.

As much as the off-season has gotten off to a slow start, the Mets have been dominating the hot stove discussions. Nearly every big name free agent or trade candidate has had their name tied to Queens in off-season rumors. So far so good, but the heavy lifting is about to begin.

Preparing this Mets team for 2021 will take more than an aggressive free agency; it will require a well thought out approach that puts us a step ahead of the competition. Just as we’ve watched other teams revolutionize the game with the use of analytics, shifts, launch angle, and more, the Mets have a chance to have a secret winning strategy of their own this coming season.

We all know the Mets need to add a new starting pitcher. But MattyMets is here to argue we need at least two, if not three. Prediction: rotation depth will be the key to the 2021 season for all teams.

As it stands, our rotation is led by the best pitcher in baseball, followed by a solid number two. You could argue that we could add one quality starter and patch together the back end between the untested David Peterson, the enigmatic Steven Matz and the miscast Seth Lugo. MattyMets disagrees.

Even if the upcoming season ends up being 162 games with a familiar set of rules, it will be a wonky season. Here’s why. There will need to be innings limits imposed on every single starting pitcher, or else we’re going to see a rash of elbow injuries like we’ve never seen before.

If you give merit to the Verducci effect, pitchers are far more susceptible to arm injuries when there is a significant increase in innings pitched from one season to the next. Going from one 32-start/200-inning season to the next, a pitcher is prepared. But, going from an injury-shortened (or Covid-shortened) 12-start/70-inning season to a full one leaves a pitcher very vulnerable. The leading 2020 innings eater was Lance Lynn with just 84 IP. Jacob deGrom threw 68, Peterson threw 49.2, Marcus Stroman threw zero innings and it’s not yet clear who will fill out the rotation. This is a problem.

Smart teams will be prepared with deep bullpens featuring a few old-school long reliever/spot starter types (where’s Terry Leach when we need him?). Shrewd GMs will stack their triple A affiliate with veteran arms who can step in as needed. Signing former Phillies pitcher Jerad Eickhoff was a good start. Though he struggled recently, he has a live arm and some solid seasons behind him. He’s still 29 so there’s a chance for a bounce back and he’s worth a look. The Mets should look for a few more guys like that.

The smartest and boldest move of all would be to implement a six-man rotation. This way there are reasonable expectations placed on starters, injury risk is reduced, and there’s a better chance of them having some steam left heading into the post-season, which the Mets plan to attend in 2021.

Rather than putting all their eggs in one basket, like say spending $30mm on Trevor Bauer, the Mets might be better served bringing in two $10-$15 million arms, plus taking a flyer on a few guys coming off down years or injuries. The teams that succeed will be the ones that best prepared for the certain uncertainty of 2021.

Mets will face a tough decision on Marcus Stroman

With the 2020 season up in the air, any Mets who were entering their walk years, will be suddenly facing free agency. This includes Yoenis Cespedes, Wilson Ramos, and several pitchers, most notably, Marcus Stroman.

After the Mets parted with two of their top pitching prospects – Anthony Kay and Simeon Woods Richardson – to land the former Blue Jays ace at last year’s summer trade deadline, the expectation was that Stroman would serve as the mid-rotation replacement for Zack Wheeler, who was on the verge of free agency. Once Noah Syndergaard went down for Tommy John surgery, Stroman became the Mets number two starter heading into the 2020 season.

The former ace, who is in the prime of his career and seems excited to be in New York, was up to the challenge. In less than half a season as a Met last season, Stroman showed an uncanny ability to induce ground balls, as well as the best fielding off the mound we’ve seen since Ron Darling was our number two. Stroman, short in stature, but long on athletic prowess, possesses an interesting pitch repertoire that offers a nice change of pace in the Mets hard throwing rotation. He relies on a mix of sinkers, two-seamers, cutters, sliders and change-ups. He generally pitches low in the zone and pitches to contact, though he does rack up his share of strikeouts too.

Born and raised in New York and just short of 29, Stroman seemed to be poised to have a nice second act with the Mets, only he’s very quickly going to hit free agency. The sacrifice in prospects was significant, but the Mets thought they were getting a season and a half of control at the time, which may not be the case now. Of course, the Mets could never have predicted that the 2020 season would be either shortened or canceled at the time of the trade, but that doesn’t change the fact that they’re going to have to make an important decision on the right hander sooner than later.

Simply letting him walk is probably not wise given that, in 2021, Syndergaard will be coming off a lost season to surgery and entering his last year of control, and rotation mates Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha will also be hitting free agency. Stroman was set to earn $12 million this year, his last arbitration eligible season. On the open market, a prime age pitcher with Stroman’s pedigree is sure to command a $20 million per season, multi-year contract. Given the economic turn of events since Zack Wheeler cashed in on his deal, Stroman might command a bit less, but still will not come cheap given the dearth of quality, available starters each off-season.

Offering that type of deal would require a pretty big leap of faith on the part of Mets ownership who, fairly, won’t have seen much of Stroman in New York. However, with so much uncertainty right now, from the 2020 season to Mets ownership change rumors, it remains a possibility.

If, on the other hand, the Mets front office decides to let Stroman walk, the Mets would be left with both a depleted farm system and a half empty rotation.