When the Cubs acquired Addison Russell from the A’s in a trade earlier this month, it was clear that both Starlin Castro and Javier Baez would be available in a trade. Earlier this week, in a post for ESPN NY, Adam Rubin reported that an industry source has predicted that the Mets could end up with Cubs super prospect Javier Baez.
Baez would be a great get for the Mets for many reasons. He’s young, he plays a position of need, and his ceiling is that of a high power/average guy. But when trying to acquire a top 5 prospect like Baez, it comes with a hefty price and Baez is no different.
The Mets should make a play for Javier Baez before the July 31st non-wavier trade deadline. And they should part with one of their pitchers in order to do so. The Cubs have built up a prospect system that they are going to cash in on soon. But they are missing some pieces. Those pieces are pitching and catching.
If the Mets want to get a top bat or a top hitting prospect, it’s going to come at the expense at one of their young, under control pitchers. It’s obvious that the Mets aren’t moving Matt Harvey and it seems likely that Zack Wheeler is here to stay.
That leaves Noah Syndergaard, Rafael Montero, Jon Niese, Dillon Gee and Jacob deGrom as potential trade options.
Syndergaard is only going to be moved for a guy like Giancarlo Stanton, which isn’t happening. The Mets now have four pitchers that can build a package around for Baez.
The other piece to this is catching. Travis d’Arnaud has proven that he is the hitting prospect we all expected him to be. That leaves rising prospect Kevin Plawecki without a home. Plawecki, who is thriving in Triple A, can be packaged with one of the pitchers in an enticing deal for the Cubs.
The Mets should probably start with a package of deGrom and Plawecki for Baez and go from there. They should entertain moving Jon Niese as well. Even though he is the lone lefty the Mets have, they have Darin Gorski that’s close to the big leagues or they can sign a lefty veteran for next season. Niese is under contract and is proven for a longer stretch than any of the other names mention and might be more enticing.
Javier Baez is a game-changer. He might not make the Mets better in 2014, but he makes them better for the future and gives them that high ceiling bat that they’ve longed for. Here’s a chance to cash in the talent that has been stock-piled for a young, high impact potential bat. Of course, trading for Baez comes with a ton of risk, but it also comes with the highest ceiling of any of the options the Mets have. It’s something that should be explored and attempted. It would change the entire complexity of the Mets, for the better.
deGrom and Plawecki (plus lesser) for Baez might be one of the better constructed offers I’ve seen. I like deGrom a lot but I think that Baez would be worth it. Not that the Cubs would necessarily accept this offer, but I think they might think about it.
They wouldn’t consider it
Cubs will except nothing less then Syndergaard, plus another lessor pitching prospect. This guy has the potential to hit 40+ Hr’s a year. BP loves what he could do.
How generous of you … you are willing to give up a top 60 prospect, a pitcher that has never even been close to that highly ranked, for a “franchise altering” shortstop that hit so well at the Futures game he created a buzz.
Start with Syndergaard, a similarly rated player, and add the .200 hitting-at-LV- Plawecki and be thankful they don’t ask for Montero as well.
And still, at that, you pull the trigger. How many SSs have hit 35 HRs in the last seventy years?
deGrom’s 2014 performance in the majors carries weight. If not for that, you are 100% correct.
I’ll help you:
Rico Petrocelli
Ernie Banks
Vern Stephens
The Unnamed One
So two guys that played in Boston’s band box, a Chicago Cub, and a guy on drugs.
2001 Rich Aurilia hit 37 HR
2006 Bill Hall hit 35 HR as did 1998 Nomar
Lower it to 30 and you get nine other guys. But no one’s arguing that it’s not an exclusive club.
It should be pointed out that Baez has yet to play a game in the majors. He had 37 HR last year but this year playing in the PCL he’s got 14 HR in 348 PA. That’s a great total but I think it’s a mistake to expect him to be guaranteed to hit 30 HR in the majors on a regular basis.
And it may be optimistic to think of him as an MLB ss. Here’s a scouting report from Baseball America before the start of 2014:
“Baez also has plenty of work to do defensively. His range has proven to be better than what was projected when he came out of the 2011 draft, but he still has to work on his consistency at shortstop. He committed 31 errors in only 73 games at Daytona, showing poor throwing accuracy. He tended to make errors in bunches, as he had seven errors in one five-game stretch and another five-error, three-game stretch. The 20-year-old did settle down somewhat after his promotion to Tennessee, but he still made 13 errors in only 50 games at shortstop with the Smokies. In comparison, current Cubs shortstop Starlin Castro leads all National League shortstops in errors committed with 16 in 134 games.”
http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/ask-ba-is-javier-baez-ready-for-the-big-leagues/
His error totals are down this year but so is his power production.
Also, I think we should be concerned about his 31.6 K%
Brian, in addition to getting the list wrong, the “35 HR by a SS” is an arbitrary selection to try to make a point. Jay Bell hit 38 HRs in 1999, the year after he moved from SS to 2B. Ripken, Tejada, Larkin, and Hanley Ramirez all had a season between 33-34 HRs.
And of course, it’s silly to argue that Baez is a sure bet for a 35 HR season in the majors, or that it’ll happen at SS. He hit 37 HRs between A+ and AA last year, and has 14 in 84 AAA games this year. There’s no guarantee that he’ll hit in the majors or stick at the position.
35 HR arbitrary? Nope.
It was brought up in the article above dude. Try reading sometime.
35 HR arbitrary? Yup.
It was not brought up in the article above, you were the first to come up with that number. Try reading sometime.
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“Baez hasn’t played a game in the major leagues”
And neither has Noah Syndergaard nor Kevin Plawecki, and Rafael Montero pretty much did nothing to impress. In fact, none of the three have mastered AAA. But Baez, in fact, has most definitely shown that he can master AAA.
Regarding his AAA numbers? Since mid May the guy is popping an 892 OPS and 11 dingers in 200 AB – a 30 HR pace. At *21 years old*. (Mind you, this is Iowa. Not Las Vegas). Of course that follows the 37 as a 20 year old in AA. We can leave out the 60+ steals in 76 attempts.
Does he play SS? Well, that’s a question. People said that Ripken was too big. They said that ARod was too big.
This team was willing to suffer Flores at SS defensively. Miami and the Dodgers put up with Hanley. If this kid is as good as advertised, he plays in Citi.
Grote, we get it, you think Baez is going to be a stud, and that the Mets should pay a king’s ransom to get him. But the inconsistencies in your arguments are undermining your cause.
deGrom has already had success in the majors, but you leave him off your list of unproven prospects. You dismiss Plawecki b/c he has a 200 average in AAA (actually 214, but ignore he’s had all of 14 games and hit 326 in 58 games at AA. And you tout Baez’s performance in AAA, but throw out the first 6 weeks of the season to get the numbers you want. And you consistently make lazy mistakes like saying Baez hit 37 HRs in AA last year, when he actually had 20 and another 17 in A+.
Baez may develop into a major league SS who mashes, but no one is arguing against this. But it’s far from a certainty, and the available data sure doesn’t support he’s destined for greater success than Syndergaard/Montero/deGrom/Plawecki combined. And there’s no amount of mental gymnastics and stat abuse you can use to get there.
wow.
Mental gymnastics? He’s 21, and he’s turned in the majority of time delivering at AAA exactly consistently with what he did previously.
Plawecki? When playing his roughly age equivilant opponents did alright (at the bat only, btw. He hasn’t shown he can actually, you know, catch. Where did I hear that before? Oh yeah. From you), but against AAA he’s stumbled.
Syndergaard? You make this seem like he’s an equivilant player. He’s in the Second Ten not the first five or seven. So that you understand this, the progression is not linear.
He’s a pitcher, not a positional player. Would any one in baseball trade Kershaw for Trout? I doubt it. There’s a reason you discount pitchers and a reason you aren’t getting a crown jewel SS/3B for a RHP.
So yeah, we get it. You think 30 home run hitting guys that can play the left side of the infield, guys that draw comparisons to 500 home run hitters, can be had for a couple of players that, to this point, have failed at AAA.
I think the 37 HR as a 20 year old, and the subsequent 30 HR production level at AAA, count for oh just a tad more.
And the mental gymnastics continue…
“He’s 21, and he’s turned in the majority of time delivering at AAA exactly consistently with what he did previously.”
Except he hasn’t. He has 14 HR in 84 games, a pace of 23 HRs over a 140 game AAA season. Once again, looking at his pace from mid-May on is chicanery to try to make the numbers say what you want them to. I could easily point out he has 3 HRs in his past 25 games, a pace of 17 HF for the season. But I don’t b/c I actually believe in looking at the numbers to form my opinions, not forming an opinion then trying to skew the numbers to support my argument.
“He hasn’t shown he can actually, you know, catch. Where did I hear that before? Oh yeah. From you)”
You’re once again just making stuff up, as this was nowhere in any of my comments (every scouting report I’ve ever read indicates Plawecki is solid-to-good behind the plate). BTW, I’m still waiting for you to point out where the article mentions 35 HRs…
“Syndergaard? You make this seem like he’s an equivilant player.”
MLB.com has Baez at #6 and Syndergaard at #10. BA has them at #5 and #16. Keith Law has them at #7 and #24. BP has Baez at #4 and Syndergaard at #11. Everyone agrees that Baez is the better prospect, but not by much. It’s not crazy to think the Cubs would look at their prospect distribution and trade Baez for Thor straight up. It is crazy to think the Mets would need to throw in a ton with Syndergaard to make the deal “even.” Once again, Syndergaard + Plawecki would be more than enough.
“There’s a reason you discount pitchers and a reason you aren’t getting a crown jewel SS/3B for a RHP.”
Pitching prospects are less certain than hitting prospects, but that’s already accounted for in the rankings (it why hitting prospects dominate the top 10). And Baez is only considered a marginally better prospect than Syndergaard once position has been factored in.
“I think the 37 HR as a 20 year old, and the subsequent 30 HR production level at AAA, count for oh just a tad more.”
37 HR at age 20 is impressive, but so is Syndergaard’s 133 Ks in 118 IP (also split over A+ and AA). Syndergaard has struggled so far in AAA, but in a pitcher’s league in a pitcher’s park. Of course, Baez has failed to match his 2013 performance as well (for the umpteenth time, Baez HAS NOT HIT AT A 30 HR PACE IN AAA).
Keep coming up with nonsensical arguments if you want, I can do this all day…
Baez is considered a somewhat better prospect than Syndergaard (depending on whose rankings you’re looking at), but Baez isn’t exactly lighting up the PCL this year (240/305/449 so far). I suspect the Cubs would take Thor straight up for Baez, though they may insist on Plawecki as well.
I agree the Cubs would probably pass on Plawecki + deGrom, but Syndergaard + another highly rated prospect (do we even have one?) + Plawecki + Montero is WAAAAAYYYYYY too much. Maybe we could get it done for deGrom +Montero + Plawecki, depending on how the Cubs feel about each of those guys.
I’d rather the Mets find a LF or SS “in waiting” from a Contender for Colon/Murphy based packages…that could expand to Niese/Gee, etc.
I’m still looking at the Mariners for trade proposals. I’ve been ratcheting my brain for the last 30 mins looks at their roster and what they could possibly need, but haven’t come up with anything good for either side that would net us either Brad Miller, Chris Taylor, or Nick Franklin.
Maybe deGrom for Chris Taylor straight up? Maybe both teams also want to swap struggling players Chris Young and Corey Hart for each other?
Seattles shortstops are having a worse year than Tejada. deGroom for Chris Taylor no way. I like Chris Young for Corey Hart. It like trading you old Ford Escort for a Plymouth Reliant.
You don’t trade your best pitching prospect in Syndergaard and your best catching prospect in Plawleki and more for a player who hits great but has yet to master the ss position. His value is him staying there and being good at it.
Baez is only hitting 240 for Iowa and has lower power numbers than Wilmer Flores. Baez also has some of the same problems as Flores. He is bigger body type than the average shortstop. Last season I read an article that the Cubs planned on moving hit to the outfield. That hasn’t been done. I was really surprised when he Cubs picked up Russell, another shortstop. I can never figure out that teams plans, they have been rebuilding forever Every year they trade their best starter, and never receive anything in return.
I would be cautious of anyone hitting 240 in the PCL, ever if they are MLB’s #4 overall rated prospect.
The Mets need an established middle of the order impact player to compete in 2015. They have a young pitcher and Daniel Murphy to start the trade talks. I would explore that option first.
Baez, by not being established, is too big a risk if he is the one big impact bat that the Mets obtain. What if he starts off like TdA did this year or needs more time in AAA to improve his fielding? Baez may very well be a future impact player but the Mets need a more experienced established player if they are only trading one pitcher and want to compete for a playoff spot in 2015.
I agree but …
Who are you getting instead, and what is the likelihood that they will fail to perform to whatever contract they bring along with you?
Risk is inherent in any move. Discount the upside of bringing in … Cargo. Cuddyer. Lesser player, same idea: Craig … discount against the cost in both players (likely to be the same young talent names) and payroll.
Don’t forget to consider that in bringing in the likes of a Troy Tulowitkzi, you drag along a contract that makes it harder to retain Wheeler/Harvey/DeGrom/et al.
I think you are right. I’d rather, every day and twice on Sunday, move the talent we have for that 25 HR, 850 OPS corner player. But I’m beginning to question whether or not this team doesn’t already have two and possibly three bona fide hitters like that in the lineup.
I think we can take a small step risk in a getting someone like Bryant/Myers/Franco/Buxton/Baez (understanding not all of them are available).
Bottom line to the Mets, is that the talent level on this team – where the productivity actually lies, as opposed to the average age – is on the other side of 27. Look at what the Marlins and Braves are accomplishing. I’d love to see us accumulate young talent in the 8 like they have.
After reading the first sentence of this article it’s clear that the rest of it should be ignored. Just because the Cubs acquired Russel, who is still at least two years away from the majors, does not mean that either Castro or Beaz are available to anyone via trade. Castro makes the least sense considering he is a cost controlled three time all star shortstop who is continuing to improve. Baez is probably the cubs future second baseman so I seriously doubt they consider trading him especially before the trade deadline this year. There is a reason the Cubs are stockpiling SS, it’s because they can play almost any position. To assume that just bc they got Russel that now it’s imminent that Castro and Baez will be moved is laughable. Also if you think the cubs would accept any of the lowball offersfor Baez suggested by the above commentors you are smoking better suff than Willie Nelson
agreed.
Bad news William Ray, Jerry Grote agrees with you, which means you’re probably wrong…
I do agree the speculation that the Cubs will move Baez is likely overblown. His power is his best attribute, and his defensive struggles at SS may warrant a move to 3B anyways. Castro’s D is just OK, and scouts have long thought he’d be better suited by moving to 2B. Make those two moves and there’s a spot for Russell at SS, and with Rizzo at 1B a potentially awesome IF in the near future.
That said, they have one young major leaguer and two top prospects who can all arguably play SS. Considering the lack of pitching and catching prospects, I suspect they’re at least listening to offers for Baez/Castro. I just don’t see anything “laughable” about this article, though again I don’t think deGrom + Plawecki would get it done.
No, Jerry Grote definitely gets it. He’s a smart guy. By the way, Baez was the youngest player at AAA until Luis Sardinas got promoted later. Take away his April and Baez’s stats are quite good (especially, like, since he was the youngest player in the league for much of the year).
Somebody posted a link to this article over on bleachernation, and we all spent a good hour laughing pretty hard about it. We couldn’t decide which was more absurd, the article or some of the commenters trying to justify it. You should listen to Jerry- he knows his stuff.
Soda (love the pic, by the way), JG may be a smart guy, but it sure doesn’t show up in his posts. If you go back and read my posts, I pretty clearly outline all the problems with his arguments and misguided attempts to back them up with stats. I won’t rehash everything here, but I’ll again highlight his cherry picking of Baez’s year at AAA. He wants to only consider from Mid-May on, which conveniently starts with a 4 HR in 9 game stretch. If you move the date range to late May (just after this stretch), Baez’s number look a lot worse. It’s a classic case of abusing statistics to make them say what you want them to.
While we’re all entitled to our opinions, it’s hard not to notice JG stopped responding to my posts, likely b/c he’s backed himself into a corner of which he can’t get out of (particularly with the multiple factual errors in his comments).
For the umpteenth time, I like Baez and believe he’s a top 10 prospect (and I’ve already said there’s no way the Cubs would trade him for deGrom + Plawecki). But he has yet to live up to his pedigree in AAA, and you can’t change that by cherry-picking stats. I suspect he’ll get there sooner rather than later, and would bet on him joining the majors for good in mid-2015 (though there is the question of what position that would be at).
Stopped responding? Sorry. There was a day job that got in the way. And factual errors? What, that I said Plawecki was hitting 200 when he was all the way up to 214 at the time, or that I missed two or three of the total of five SSs that hit 35 HR? Laughable. What, are you actually trying to avoid the point that Plawecki hasn’t hit for shit to this point, or that SSs that hit for power are a scarce commodity? Those are the points being made here, not the specifics of which guy got to 35.
You keep talking about “cherry picking”. You are the one cherry picking.
I started the review of Baez at the time I did because it gave me 200 ABs. You don’t like that? Let’s look at June 1 and uniquely enough that gives a 150 AB review. His numbers show up to a 850 OPS as of last night, 8 dingers in 150 ABs and on pace for a 32 HR season on 600 AB. You would like to add a 14 AB stretch that makes your point. Ridiculous.
I’ve said this in other posts and threads. One of these things is not like the others – namely, the start of the 2014 season in AAA. Other than that his performance this year looks like a carbon copy of the previous year. And you are looking at a young man, starting the highest level of competition in the minors, as one of the youngest players in his league. He stumbled for a short time and adjusted. You know who was young for AAA, stumbled and hasn’t adjusted? T… H … O …
Cherry picking? No. I needn’t hammer this point further. I won’t have to; the guy just hit his 15th homer last night in a 2-4 performance and he’ll continue to make you look stupid.
Keep it up Steve. You make it too easy.
Well, you didn’t *really* stop responding, you used a 2nd name (Soda Popinski) to try to pretend someone else agreed with you. It didn’t work…
Factual errors:
– You said 35 HR was mentioned in the article. It was not, you were the first to mention that number (And I love how you followed that up with “try reading sometime.” I mean, I couldn’t make up something that ironic).
– Your list of SS with 35 HR seasons missed 2 of 6 players. That’s 33% of the list!
– You said that I claimed Plawecki doesn’t play good defense. I did not, nor did anyone else. It’s not a very convincing tactic to try to undermine an argument with the other person’s own statement…only they never actually made that statement.
– You claimed Baez hit 37 HRs in AA, when they were split over A+ and AA.
Factual errors and false claims undermine one’s credibility. If you’re lazy with the facts, it indicates any opinions are also lazy and ill-informed.
There’s also lack of internal coherence in your arguments. Once again, you dismiss Plawecki based on 14 games at AAA, and ignore the rest of his minor league numbers (including his 58 excellent games at AA this year). You dismiss the highly-rated Syndergaard b/c he’s struggled in AAA, but also deGrom, who is having success right now in the majors, b/c he wasn’t highly rated as a prospect.
And you are cherry picking your stats in an attempt to support your claims about Baez, as there’s nothing magical about 200 AB. I’ve only done so to show how easy it is to distort stats to support whatever one wants to claim. For example, one can point out he has 11 HR in his last 250 AB, which is only 22 over a 500 AB season (the AAA season is only 140 games long). But he also has 11 HR in his last 200 AB, which is a 28 HR pace. But he has 7 HR in his last 150 AB, which drops the pace back down to 23 HR. He also has 4 HR in his last 100 AB, and now we’re down to 20 HR. But he also has 3 HR in his last 50 AB, which jumps the number all the way back up to 30 HR. And so on, and so on, and so on. Of course, you are only want to use parameters that support the claim that Baez is performing, and make absurd claims like “he’s hit at a 30 HR pace for most of the season!” I mean, he also hasn’t hit at a 30 HR pace for most of the season, depending on what parameters you want to use (like, you know, the whole season).
I really have no idea if you’re even aware that you’re doing this, or you’re just so deep in your admiration of Baez that you’re only seeing what you want to see. But I strongly recommend taking a step back and a deep breath, and really look at the data at hand. Otherwise you’re going to just keep digging yourself into a deeper and deeper hole (and believe me, the hole you’re in right now is one of the deepest I’ve ever seen).
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From ESPNChicago.com , dated July 16. “His (Javier Baez) recovery after a slow start has been nice, but it didn’t land him in the Triple-A all-star game Wednesday night. If he can’t make that squad, how can he be ready for the big leagues?
The Cubs will tolerate some high strikeout totals from their sluggers — that’s baseball these days — but 110 whiffs to just 28 walks isn’t a ratio that will work in the majors. And remember we’re just at the All-Star break.
Baez needs to be a more disciplined hitter to get that final promotion. He started to show signs of it in spring training, taking what the pitcher was giving him more often than not, but once Triple-A started he expanded his zone. Nothing about his season screams that he’s ready despite some prodigious home runs, including Sunday in the Futures Game when he crushed an outside breaking ball out to right.
For the year he is batting .240 with 14 home runs and 47 RBIs with an on-base percentage of .305. Those are pedestrian numbers for a player of his talent. The good news is he has made only 11 errors after 44 last season. His manager noted Baez never took his offensive woes to the field. If he can pick up where he left off before the break — he’s on a 10-game hitting streak — he still has a chance at the big leagues sooner rather than later.”
again, in his last 200 ABs in AAA, he has 11 homers and nearly a 900 OPS.
You have one streak of six weeks where he wasn’t up to snuff as a 21 year old in AAA. After that, his hitting picked directly where it left off in AA.
Nearly every player adjusts as he moves up.
That crappy article from Jesse Rodgers also fails to mention that Baez’s strike out rate has fallen every month during the season. He was horrible in April, after his adjustment in mid-May he’s been on fire. Cubs are not trading any of their middle infielders until they know whether Kris Bryant can stick at 3rd base in the majors. If Bryant can handle the hot corner then they might make available one of Baez/Castro/Russell. But that won’t happen until 2016.
Dream on. You might get Castro or Russell for some really, really good pitching prospects. But not Baez.
Hahahaha! Wake up from that dream
This sums up the article. “Maybe we can trade for the best shortstop prospect in the game of baseball for a few of our middling fringe prospects!”
I’m a Cubs fan. Please allow me to give you an appropriate response to the proposed trade of the article:
HAHAHAHAHAHA!
*sorry guys. It ain’t happening. Some of your readers get it. They’re intelligent. Don’t insult them, please.
I think MLB needs all of the young stars it can get. If each team had a Mike Trout, that would be a great thing. I’m rooting for Baez to live up to the hype, just like I’m rooting for Byron Buxton and Noah Syndergaard.
Trade articles are always difficult because everyone’s convinced their stud prospect is the one who’s going to turn into Trout and everyone’s else’s stud prospect is going to flop.
I can tell you that Angels fans were convinced that Brandon Wood was going to be the next great SS after he hit 43 HR over two minor league levels in 2005 as a 20 year old.
I’m not saying Baez is going to flop. I’m not rooting for him to fail. I just think it’s silly to consider him destined for greatness and that any offer for him should be ridiculed.
To be honest, I think that there needs to be a disclaimer when discussing prospect-prospect trade swaps because the reality is that they do not (or rarely) occur.
I’ve been going through every MLB trade over the past couple years and haven’t found a single trade where the main centerpieces of the trade were 2 top prospects who were still eligible to be prospects and didn’t include a major leaguer.
So i’m not even sure why people are getting so upset about what is “fair” or “isn’t fair” when there is literally no precedent. (unless someone can prove me wrong)
Articles and discussions like this should be noted are purely “theoretical” and food for thought.
Glad to see this as a reference point why the mets shouldn’t simply give away talent for potential.
Baez was a heralded prospect who now seems suspect.
DeGrom was an under the radar guy who now is stellar.
Not a chance the mets would trade deGrom for Baez. None, zero.
Would they move Niese and a prospect for him now? Perhaps…