We are 10% of the way through the season and league-wide statistics are starting to take shape and stabilize – home run rates, strike out rates, batting averages, etc. which are going to tell us how the ball is reacting, which in turn can lead us to consider how to manage our expectations for seasonal performances.
Home run rates are down. Batting average, and ISO, are down. Those are key factors in not blowing games late. It should also bode well for starting pitchers to stay in games longer, coupled with the universal designated hitter.
Buck Showalter has 17 games under his belt. The questions about his managing matching the Mets needs are starting to come into focus. Showalter is a “players manager” and so far, it seems like that has paid off for the Mets. Showalter has some personalities to manage and the Mets are scoring runs. Francisco Lindor is playing like expected, if not better. Pete Alonso has mashed the ball as a DH. J.D. Davis can hit as a DH. Brandon Nimmo is thriving. The starting pitchers are being dominant. Showalter deserves credit for ensuring Max Scherzer, Tylor Megill, Carlos Carrasco, Chris Bassitt, and David Peterson are put in a position to succeed.
These are all signs of a successful manager. Showalter has also been good with the media, which goes a long way for preventing clubhouse squabbling.
Where the questions are yet to be answered fall into the areas where the Mets have had recent troubles and can lead to a disappointing season.
Alonso wants to play first base. He works hard at being a good defender but is not. He is average-ish. It’s a handful of games, but Alonso is hitting the ball better when focused solely on hitting. Dominic Smith is not hitting much so there is not pressure for Showalter to move Alonso off the field, and Davis is a poor fielder who can thrive as a DH. The potential quagmire will be if Smith begins to hit the ball with authority and needs more at bats. Alonso is a valuable power hitter and Showalter will need to navigate the egos here successfully.
The other troublesome area for the Mets is still the bullpen. There is no doubt the Mets have talented arms in the bullpen. The question is nearly always about bullpen management, and whether the correct levers are being pulled at the correct times. Showalter has done a good job at having a slower hook this season, allowing for more successful starters, and reducing pitcher usage from the pen. Showalter is near the bottom of the league in pitchers used per game. By and large, he’s managed the pitching staff, with respect to tactics, right near league average or below. He has a good starting rotation, and that reduces the overall stress on the bullpen and reduces the impact of mediocre bullpen management.
While the season is old enough for league-wide statistics to stabilize, there is still lots of time for Showalter to change his tendencies. His media personality is definitely at the top of the league, and he is getting the Mets out to a good start and keeping the players enjoying themselves. He deserves all A’s for this, and it appears any questions about his age or the four years away from the game or his acceptance of analytics have been answered. He is going to be a good fit for these Mets.
Showalter’s talents still may not be enough to keep the Mets at the top of the standings. There is enough time for the DH/1B competition to turn. This is unlikely as almost of the characters involved believe the “what’s right for the ball club” mentality. That does not mean the highest run producing situation will be chosen, but rather the one that keeps the peace.
Then there is the bullpen. There are lots more moves to make, but Showalter is headed in the right direction, and he has talent there. It would not hurt the Mets to add an arm to the pen to reduce the chances of a bullpen blowup.
He has managed to do all of this while preventing the inevitable takes of “Is losing Jacob deGrom the problem?” Showalter’s pitching staff management, and the pitchers’ performances, has largely prevented that from being a distraction.
Give me $1 for every fan who complains about “bullpen management” and I’d be a rich man.
It is the easiest thing to say — it means something different to everyone who says it — and it is the emptiest phrase in sports talk.
Buck has been a godsend to this team.
And he’s not perfect.
The emptiest phrase is sports talk is “Best shape of his life”.
Bullpen management is not that difficult to quantify – here’s the roster; here are their expected performances; here are their much worse actuals. Bad management.
And of course, the converse.
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I was told to temper my enthusiasm (i kid, i kid).
right man for the job at the right time. he was put in a good position by Eppler with all of the veteran free agent signings clearly having a positive clubhouse impact. Scherzer’s intensity and will to win, Marte’s joy and hustle, Canha’s patience and professionalism, Escobar’s all around great guy vibe.
Also – only 4 errors in 17 games. Whoa.
Buck solid, with a great feel for the team as a whole. Night and day from the sad clowns we had before him…
He’ll make errors, and some things will backfire… it’s the nature of the biz. But I love the guy steering the ship.
I’ve generally been in the camp that the manager doesn’t make as big of a difference as some think, but I’m beginning to wonder if I was wrong. I really like what we’ve seen so far and what I’ve been most pleasantly surprised by is the different ways that they win games. Obviously starting pitching has been key, but offensively, they’ve scored in a lot of different ways, rather than just waiting for HRs. I’ve debated the idea of how much impact a manager has with some of you (I think you Wobbit) and I may have to say you were right. I want to see more than 17 games (Callaway had a great start as well and we know how that turned out) but it really does have a different feel.
I hope my piece says “I’m pleased with Buck so far”. I think a *new* manager has impact, but one that fades, as enthusiasm does.
Buck doesn’t make moves to look smart. He makes smart moves, but players still have to execute.
The goal is be in first place. A+
Be prepared. A+
Think on your feet. A+
Be in control of game situations. A+
Thinking ahead to the next game or games. A+
Manage your starting pitchers. A+
Manage your bullpen. A-
Maximize the batting order A-
Keep your starting players fresh. A+
Keep your bench players from being stale A+
Have control of the media. A+
Overall Grade A+
Sure , I would like the batting order maximize better. Or his old school thinking that righty/ lefty matches are always better . It is the way he manages and he has had a successful career doing it that way.