Trouble in the middle innings, the stingy John Curtiss, Francisco Alvarez’ 2023 debut

Baseball-Reference has breakdowns for stats for individual innings, as well as innings 1-3, 4-6 and 7-9. In 2022, 34% of the runs all MLB pitchers gave up happened in innings 1-3, 35% came in the middle innings and 1% came in the final three frames. This makes sense, as you figure with teams frequently using their best relievers in the eighth and ninth innings – along with teams frequently not batting in the bottom of the ninth – that there would be fewer runs scored in the last three innings.

And we see very similar numbers in MLB with roughly one week’s worth of games in the books here in 2023. In both the first three and middle three innings, 35% of runs have scored and the number falls to 30% in the final three frames. But the 2023 Mets have deviated from the established norms since 2022.

This year, the Mets have allowed 28% of their runs in the first three innings, 46% in the middle three frames and 26% in the final three innings. We can debate if this is a small-sample fluke or an indication that starters were not properly prepared for the realities of performing with a pitch clock. If it’s the latter, we can say that for the most part, that hasn’t been a problem for MLB as a whole.

The Mets have two pitchers who’ve logged innings in the minors recently and should have been exposed to the pitch clock. David Peterson has given up five runs in the first three innings and just one run in innings 4-6. Tylor Megill has allowed two runs in the first three innings and none in the middle three. It’s a different story for Max Scherzer, who’s allowed two runs in the first three frames and six runs in the middle three innings.

It will be curious to see how Scherzer and Carlos Carrasco fare in the middle innings going forward.

THE EXTRA S IS FOR STINGY – The Mets signed John Curtiss to a two-year deal, with the first year spent rehabbing from TJ surgery last season. He allowed a homer in this first appearance this year but hasn’t allowed a run since. In 5.1 IP, he has a shiny 1.69 ERA. Curtiss is a two-pitch reliever, throwing a fastball and a slider. The good news is that his velocity has completely returned to pre-surgery levels. His lifetime average velocity is 94.6 mph on his heater and this year it’s 94.8 mph.

Curtiss has allowed just three hits to his 18 batters faced and he has not walked a batter. With fellow relievers Brooks Raley and Drew Smith scuffling in the early going, it will be interesting to see if Curtiss moves up in the pecking order and enters Buck Showalter’s circle of trust.

MORE EARLY WEAK CONTACT FOR CANHA – Last year in April, Mark Canha was the king of soft contact but with the caveat that those balls found enough holes for a hot start. In April 2022, Canha had a .345 AVG with just 1 XBH in 63 PA. The power came later in the season, especially a 6-week hot streak from late-July to early-September. In the offseason, Canha allegedly worked on his lower half, hoping to create more power. And he hit a homer in the third game of the season.

But his average exit velocity this season is just 86.4 mph and his HrdHit% is 31.8 – with both marks being in the 20th percentile range among all MLB hitters. And while last year the hits fell in for Canha early, this year he has a .238 BABIP and a .194 AVG. The early homer and yesterday’s double have helped his ISO but the Mets are going to need more production from a corner outfielder going forward.

THAT’S A REALLY BAD PATCH – The Mets entered a multi-year partnership with New York Presbyterian to promote health and wellness. Part of the deal includes the Mets having a patch on their jersey to promote the healthcare system. It’s just another step towards the NASCARization of ads on MLB uniforms. But as depressing as that thought is, what’s even worse is how fugly this patch is.

The Mets have roughly 10 million people working for them. Is not one of them a graphic designer? This patch is too big and too bland. Steve Cohen has stated that it will get a redesign. He’s not happy that the trim is closer to Phillies red than to Mets orange. Hopefully when they update the patch, that’s not the only change made.

OPS IS A BETTER TOOL THAN AVG – Francisco Alvarez is slated to make his 2023 MLB debut today. It’s certainly not the way the Mets wanted it to happen – with an extended IL trip for Omar Narvaez. But as long as he’s here, Alvarez should get playing time, whether that’s at catcher or at DH. We’ve seen a lot of media members (carrying water for the org?) attempting to pump the brakes on expectations for Alvarez, not only defensively but with the bat, too.

They bring up his Spring Training numbers, which were terrible. And they also mention his brief time in the majors last year and his performance in Syracuse this season. If all you look at is batting average, Alvarez hit .168 with the Mets last year and .250 this year in Triple-A. But Alvarez had a .786 OPS last year in the majors and a 1.056 mark this year in Triple-A.

Do you fixate on Pete Alonso’s .235 AVG or do you celebrate his 1.039 OPS? Like Alonso, Alvarez isn’t here to hit singles. Sure, the ideal is for both players to challenge to hit .300 in a season. But if Alvarez is going to deliver an .800-plus OPS, that will be the best mark for a Mets catcher since Travis d’Arnaud in 2015. Before that, you have to go back to Ramon Castro in 2007. The last Mets catcher with more than 300 PA in a season to post an .800 OPS was Mike Piazza in 2004, a season he played more at 1B than C.

After two decades of watching catchers with balsa-wood bats play for the Mets, it will be a treat to see Alvarez suit up for the club. Of course, that’s with the understanding that he’s at least playable behind the plate. My go-to example of a player who wasn’t good defensively but was still playable is 2016 Asdrubal Cabrera. Playing the key defensive position of shortstop, Cabrera put up negative defensive numbers but his hitting was so good, he still contributed a 3.5 fWAR.

Here’s hoping we see something like that with Alvarez, regardless if he hits .199 or .299 – so long as the power is there and the defense isn’t horrendous.