For many decades, it was usual for MLB teams to bat their best all-around hitter in the third spot of the batting order. Players like Willie Mays, Mickey Mantle, Stan Musial and Ted Williams, among many others, usually hit third in the batting order. More recently some teams have gone to placing their best hitter in the second spot, others stick with the third spot. For example, just a random check of the Sunday box scores showed Bryce Harper hitting third for the Phills and Juan Soto hitting third for San Diego. The case could be made that they are the best hitters onn their respective teams. Some teams do it differently as mentioned, with Ronald Acuna Jr. hitting leadoff for the Braves Sunday and Paul Goldschmidt placed in the number two spot in the Cardinal order.
Brandon Nimmo has clearly been the best hitter on the Mets so far this year, and he also been a fixture at the leadoff spot in the order for several years now. Manager Buck Showalter shook up the Mets batting order on Sunday, resulting in better offensive production even if the Mets ultimately lost the game. Could it be time for another tweak, specifically moving Nimmo to the number three spot in the batting order?
Nimmo is slashing .310/.407/.460, resulting in an OPS of .867. He has an impressive hard hit rate at 49%, according to Statcast. He leads the team, among qualified hitters, in OPS, BA, OBP, hits and walks, and is second in SLG. As to the National League, Nimmo is 10th in BA and seventh in OBP. So it is pretty clear that he is the best all-around hitter on the team this season.
What would some of the benefits of batting Nimmo in the three hole be? Nimmo is hitting for power, but when batting first he is not going to have many runners on base for him to drive in, especially considering the dreadful performance of the bottom of the order for the Mets this year. While batting third he’ll see more runners on, with perhaps Jeff McNeil leading off and Francisco Lindor hitting second. He’ll still have plenty of opportunities to score runs as well with Pete Alonso and Brett Batey batting behind him, especially when Alonso awakes from his recent slumber at the plate.
Following is a possible Mets batting order with their current roster.
McNeil LF
Lindor SS
Nimmo CF
Alonso 1b
Baty 3b
Daniel Vogelbach DH (Tommy Pham if a left-hander is pitching for the opposition)
This lineup of alternating left and right-handed batters would make it tough for opposing managers to matchup relievers with batters. Note under-performing outfielder Mark Canha is not in this lineup. There is nothing wrong with McNeils’ defense at second, but Guillorme is a wizard with the glove and he is the kind of battling hitter who can work counts to draw walks, a valuable skill for a bottom of the order hitter.
Showalter has shown a tendency to give deference to veterans in his lineups, perhaps the most egregious example this year has been the frequent presence of Starling Marte in the two spot in the order, despite his anemic .570 OPS. Perhaps it is time to show a little deference to Nimmo.
With the exception of wanting to replace Guillorme with Mauricio I am up for giving it a try.
I agree. McNeil has an OBP close to Nimmo, so him in the leadoff spot could work. I don’t want to see Guillorme in the regular lineup. If it’s not Mauricio I’d rather see Canha in left and McNeil at 2nd.
The problem with batting McNeil leadoff is that he’s second-best on the team in hitting with RISP. And it’s not just this year, either. He batted .336 with RISP in 2022, too. He’s done well in the category every year, except for 2021, when he wasn’t good at any split.
I see no reason to move Nimmo. But if you absolutely had to move him, like he had a clause in his contract saying he’d get twice as much money as he does if he continues to bat first, the guy I’d install at leadoff in his place would be Vogelbach. All of the fanboys of Eric Young Jr. and Mallex Smith just got angry because Vogelbach won’t steal any bases leading off. But you know what – Nimmo hasn’t stolen a base in the last 24 games, either. The most important job of the leadoff guy is to get on base and Vogey’s .398 is the second-best OBP on the club behind Nimmo. All of the people complaining that all Vogelbach does is walk won’t have any reason to get upset when he does that leading off the game.
I am old school. Keith Hernandez hit third in the Mets lineup and he profiles similarly to Nimmo. Nimmo would have more RBIs in the three spot, maybe even 90+ like Hernandez.
The 1-5 batting order that you proposed is based on analytic analysis and stats. You presented a good argument, although I wouldn’t do that. The 6-9 batting order was not based on analytic analysis or stats. Canha (674 0PS) is significantly better offensively than Guillorme (582 OPS) which is the topic, improving the batting order offensively, of the article. Even if we look at the defense, Guillorme only slightly better statistically than Cahna to justify him starting in place of Cahna.
I was alternating left and right handed batters
In general , I prefer that too but Guillorme vs RHP .581 OPS and Canha vs RHP .646 OPS can’t be ignored. The best solution would be Mauricio promoted and Guillorme optioned.( but that wasn’t the parameters of your article)
Scherzer scratched again, this time with neck pain. Also heard he had some shoulder pain. The Mets need a jump start. Their starting pitcher depth is not good. Mid May, but maybe time to make some changes.