After winning back-to-back games, the Mets are now 4-10 in the month of August. Their poor record is due to a variety of reasons but the three most likely culprits are facing good teams in the Orioles and Braves, a completely-expected swoon after the trade-deadline selloff and the remaining players on the team just not being that good.
Still, it was surprising to me to see the splits for the team in the month of August. They have four hitters with an .800 or better OPS and Daniel Vogelbach checks in with a .773 mark. Those five have amassed 218 PA. The problem is everyone else besides those five guys. Danny Mendick has the next-best OPS with a .625 mark and he’s the only one to even reach .600 this month. They have 276 PA of just awful production.
For the most part, these guys just aren’t any good. But the idea that among these 11 other players that none of them could go on a mini hot streak of 25-50 PA seems … odd. You’d expect these Quad-A types like Mendick, Rafael Ortega and Jonathan Arauz to be around a .650 or so OPS. Luis Guillorme has a .650 OPS this season and he has an 80 OPS+ – The Galvis Line! A borderline MLB player. None of these 11 borderline MLB players are performing at that level, much less above it, in this short sample. Maybe Arauz’ homer last night will spur him to that level. It just seems that one or two of these guys should be exceeding the Galvis Line, just by random luck.
But as bad as the hitting has been, the pitching has been even worse. Combined, the pitchers have a 6.21 ERA in 121.2 IP. Sure, it’s tough to look good when a 14-game stretch has one contest where you allowed 10 runs and another where you gave up 21. But there were eight games where the Mets’ pitchers allowed six or more runs, so let’s not pretend this is just two bad outings.
A commenter at The Athletic came up with a description of the team’s pitchers, riffing on the old line of, “Spahn and Sain and pray for rain.” The 2023 Mets are now “Senga & Q and a lot of poo.”
The rest of this season should be a nice audition for Tylor Megill and David Peterson, who both flopped when given a chance earlier this season. Megill has allowed 10 ER in 10 IP this month. Peterson has done better from an ERA standpoint (2.70) but he’s only been able to throw 6.2 IP in his two outings. My opinion is that Mets fans have always overrated Megill but that Peterson should be worthwhile. He needs to start giving six or more innings per start.
Joey Lucchesi has returned from the IL and has made two starts for Hi-A Brooklyn, where he’s allowed 1 ER in 8 IP. Hopefully after another game or two in the minors, he gets a shot at some starts in the majors. He seems more likely to be a decent MLB starter to me than Megill.
We’ll also spend the rest of the season watching Mike Vasil and the Double-A starters to see if any will be able to be considered depth starters for the 2024 team. Vasil has struggled after his promotion to Triple-A but recently took a no-hitter into the ninth inning before giving up a hit to the leadoff batter.
Christian Scott got a mid-season call to Binghamton and has pitched well in nine of his 10 starts there. In his last five games, he has a 1.93 ERA, a 0.750 WHIP and has limited batters to a .523 OPS. Tyler Stuart is the feel-good story of the year. After his promotion to Double-A, he’s been solid with a 3.81 ERA in five starts. In his age-23 season, he’s a year younger than Scott. And Blade Tidwell is the prospect who’s being overlooked. After a rough start at Brooklyn, Tidwell pitched at a high level in his next 12 starts, going 8-0 with a 1.56 ERA to earn the call to Double-A. He got hit in his first start but rebounded to toss 7.2 IP while allowing just 2 ER in his next outing. And at age 22, Tidwell is the youngest of the trio.
And while there are pitchers to watch both at the MLB level and the high minors, we also should keep tabs on the two old guys they traded away. Max Scherzer had a 4.01 ERA when he was dealt, but in his previous 14 starts, he had a 3.60 ERA, so it seemed he was trending in the right direction. In three games with Texas, Scherzer has allowed 4 ER in 20 IP, good for a 1.80 ERA. And three of those runs came in the first inning of his first start. Justin Verlander has made two starts, allowing 5 ER in 13 IP for a 3.46 ERA. He had a 3.15 ERA when dealt.
Lucchese should replace Megill on the starting rotation. Megill should become a bulk reliever. The minor leaguers eventually become depth starters. They will need to obtain three starters in the off-season. That doesn’t address the offense.
They still need corner outfielders, a third baseman and possibly a second baseman. Their recent prospects aren’t ready for 2024. Maybe trade a for young outfielder on a have not team, and who can’t afford him, would trade for Met’s prospect(s). That doesn’t address the bullpen. Well, there is always the free agent market.
To compete next year, Cohen needs deep pockets and a shrewd GM or many more August’s will occur in the future.
Let’s start with Bellinger, Yamamoto and Blake Snell. Most of the bullpen can come from free agents or a team looking to unload a reliever in a salary dump. Use some prospects to bring in an outfielder, third baseman or second baseman via trade. And please, no Vogelbach. They can rotate their starters in as the DH, especially Alvarez to keep his bat in the lineup.
If Megill is higher than #8 on the rotation line up for 24, this season is already lost.
Agree on Megill, Peterson, and seeing what Lucchesi can do for the balance of the season. Megill could audition for the balance of 2023 as a pen option for 2024. At that 4 and 10 rate they will land in the 90s in losses and maybe in the 90s in 2024 roster holes.