Trying to create a Mets roster for the start of 2024, from both a player and payroll standpoint, has so many variables involved. One variable that is off the table is whether we can spend money, because Steve Cohen has shown he is willing to open the purse strings well beyond reason to build a team.
My opinion is the key to improvement next year will come by way of free agency and not trades, although for the right return the Mets would be crazy not to listen to offers that include Baby Mets like Brett Baty and Mark Vientos, especially if they can swing a trade for a good third basemen with a strong glove. Part of the team’s success in 2022 was that they were very strong defensively. Not so much in 2023. As far as other prospects, they can be moved if they will be blocked at the MLB level due to existing long-term contracts. I would not move Mauricio under most any circumstances at this point.
There are a number of players under contract where the dollars are already fixed and currently total a little less than $150 million. They include:
Francisco Lindor – $34.1M, Starling Marte – $20.75M, Brandon Nimmo – $20.5M, Edwin Diaz – $19.5M, Kodai Senga – $15M, Jose Quintana – $13M, Jeff McNeil – $10.25M, Omar Narvaez – $7M, Brooks Raley – $6.5M, and Adam Ottavino -$6.75M.
To these I add $22M for Pete Alonso as that appears to be a reasonable increase over the $14.5M he is making now and assumes there is not a long-term deal signed before the start of the season.
Now comes the other players who I believe will make the roster, a number of whom will receive nominal raises. These players total a little over $31M and include:
Joey Lucchesi – $1.4M, Drew Smith $1.4M, Trevor Gott – $1.2M, Francisco Alvarez – $1M, Tylor Megill $1M, Ronny Mauricio – $820K, DJ Stewart – $820K, Vientos – $820K and Raphael Ortega – $800K.
Remember that we still need to pay Tomas Nido $2.1M to hang out at Syracuse (unless we trade Narvaez and make him the backup) and the big three who are not on the roster but we are still partially paying for including Max Scherzer – $20.8 M, Justin Verlander – $20.8 M and James McCann – $8M. These four players eat up nearly another $52M.
The payroll would then total $232M for 19 players and four holdovers – counting Nido in that group. Now comes the fun part. Free agents. My proposal is that the Mets go after the following players at this best guess estimated cost.
Cody Bellinger – $22M, Aaron Nola – $18M, Josh Hader – $16M, Yoshinobu Yamamoto – $15M, David Robertson – $12M and Aroldis Chapman – $7M. This additional $90M, revamps our staring pitching with the addition of Nola and Yamamoto and transforms the bullpen into one of the best. It also adds a star player and proven hitter to the roster
So, now we are up to a little more than $322M and certainly glad that we are not spending my money.
I like this plan, overall.
Nido or Navaez could be traded to save on salary.
I’m not sold on Nola, with his 4.03 FIP and 96 ER+ this past year. I’d rather sign Montgomery, who’s the same age and had a 3.27 FIP and 160 ERA+. He seems to be improving; not so with Nola. And he probably will cost less.
Steven, I’m curious why you aren’t going after Ohtani and/or Soto? Also, are you prioritizing Nola over Snell b/c of expected salaries?
Also, why retain Ortega?
My opinion is that the prices you expect to add players in free agency is a little light. Last year, Chris Bassitt signed for 3/$63 for his age 34-36 seasons. Whoever gets Nola will be getting him three years younger than the Blue Jays got Bassitt. There’s no way Nola’s going to get less money than Bassitt.
I also expect Yamamoto to get more than Senga did. And that’s both because the success that Senga enjoyed, along with the fact that Yamamoto is 4-5 years younger.
Finally, I hear a lot of people talk about Hader but is he going to go to an organization where he won’t be the closer? David Robertson was a rare guy who didn’t care when he pitched. But most of these guys who’ve been a successful closer don’t want to do anything but rack up saves.
Thanks for the feedback guys. No issue swapping out Nola for Montgomery. I think Ohtani would not want to play in New York and if you think about him his future is really unknown until he recovers from surgery. Do you pay $50 million for his bat and hope that he can pitch again? And if all we had was a bat is the $35 million range not more appropriate? I didn’t substitute for Ortega because he could make a solid back up and I believed that we would not want to spend more free agent dollars on a back up outfielder, and he has some speed. Will we even be in the Yamamoto competition without Eppler? Hope so. As far as Juan Soto, my concern was that we would have to give up too much to get him as a one-year rental. When the Mets traded for Lindor, I would like to think that there was an understanding that they would be working on and accomplishing a long-term deal. If that same type of agreement can be put in place with Soto then I will take him in our outfield any day of the week and be willing to offer up Baty, Vientos, and perhaps one of our top pitching prospects or David Peterson. The Nationals did not get much in return for Soto and Bell as their headliners were Luke Voit who is not on the team this year, shortstop CJ Abrams who actually had a nice little season and a 24 year old pitcher named Gore who had a 4.42 ERA. My payroll total will probably end up being $30 million light and that’s why I’m not quitting my day job. Can’t wait to learn. Who the new GM and managers will be.
It is a lot of fun to try to put together a roster with a lot of changes. Here is my daring list.
Nimmo
Lindor
Soto
JD Martinez
Hoskins
Alvarez
McNeil
Urshela
Pete Crow
Yamamoto
Senga
Montgomery
Quintana
Lucchesi
I concur that the prices assigned to free agents looks pretty light. Also, I question the notion of dealing the baby Mets (who flopped initially) to fill needs. Why would the opponents make those trades?
I do think the notion of Soto and no Pete is not far fetched. But…that would require the Mets to obtain a middle of the lineup RH bat…not a 40+ HR guy, but a proven player that can be counted on to provide 800+ OPS. Alvarez and Vientos may well get significant ABs, but expecting them to carry a 3-4-5 spot is not reasonable, and counting on Marte for that doesn’t make sense.
Baty,Vientos and Peterson for Soto! Sounds great!
There are trade proposals that are lopsided.
There are trade proposals where the other team just laughs at you.
There are trade proposals where the other team hangs up, finds you and punches you in the face.
This one would be a completely new level.
Nice exercise.
Ideally, the Mets should have a budget under $337m so as not to get the draft penalty of 10 spots. If they are going to exceed that budget and have a draft spot penalty, then next time they should sign young free agent ( like Ohtani) instead of Verlander type. When did they trade trade for a young super star player (like Soto) , then model the trade similar to the Lindor trade. At least this strategy would soften the blow of the draft spot penalty because they would get a young star player and lock up the position for 10 years. Cohen doesn’t worry about the money but the draft picks are more valuable to him. He can’t buy a draft pitch.
Signing these five younger free agents would be upgrade; Jordan Montgomery, Yamamoto, Jordan Hicks, Wandy Peralta and Lordes Gurriel Jr and still will not exceed the $337m threshold.
Those would be some good pickups Metsense. Here is one player that would solve our third baseman dilemma, and one I didn’t think about until I ran across an article.
It’s with our old trading pals, the Cleveland Indians. Cleveland may be trying to shed some salary. I am talking about Jose Ramirez. He would be a great addition. And we would match up well with them.
Baty,Vientos and Peterson?
How many different superstars can we offer these guys for? I think your sense of their value is a bit unrealistic.
The way I see it, is that the value of Baty, Vientos and even Mauricio is not that high. I don’t see San Diego taking even all three of them for Soto. They will want other prospects.
Unfortunately, $337 million is not the threshold for the draft pick penalty.
The luxury tax threshold kicks in at $233 million for the 2024 season. And here’s where the new CBA puts the draft pick penalty:
“Clubs that are $40 million or more above the threshold shall have their highest selection in the next Rule 4 Draft moved back 10 places unless the pick falls in the top six. In that case, the team will have its second-highest selection moved back 10 places instead.”
So, if the Mets want to avoid the penalty, they would need to be below $273 million.
https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/competitive-balance-tax
When I posted the comment I referred to the MLB glossary also. I erroneously interpreted the same section. In rereading it I realize that you are indeed correct. Thanks for fact checking my post.