Right after Shohei Ohtani’s historic deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers, the main offseason focus has been on another Japanese star in starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
Yamamoto is expected to pick a team soon. The New York Mets, New York Yankees and the Dodgers appear be the favorites to sign him.
It will be a tight race and all three teams have certain advantages to acquire Yamamoto. However, the Mets have certain advantages that the other two teams don’t have and here they are:
- Finance
The Mets have the richest owner in baseball in Steve Cohen and he is certainly not afraid to spend huge amounts of cash to a certain player, as we’ve seen over the last couple of offseasons. Money will always be one of the biggest factors to a free agent player picking a team and no one will offer more in that than Cohen. The Yankees and the Dodgers both certainly have a lot of money to throw at as well. But once again, neither of them have the unlimited cash flow that Cohen has and he can give Yamamoto the biggest contract ever.
Last offseason, the Mets signed starter Senga from Japan as well. Senga went on to have a great rookie season in the major leagues, going 12-7 with a 2.98 ERA and 202 strikeouts. Senga and Yamamoto are familiar with each other from their days in Japan and Senga strongly has stated his desire for the Mets to go after Yamamoto. The Yankees may have brought their former Japanese stars in Hideki Matsui and Masahiro Tanaka, to meet with Yamamoto, to help recruit him to the Bronx. But neither of them offer the same familiarity to Yamamoto as Senga does. Yamamoto can also look to Senga’s rookie success and can feel like he can learn from his fellow Japanese counterpart on not only succeeding in the majors, but also adjusting to life in the United States.
- Ace of the staff
If Yamamoto signs with the Mets, he can be the ace of the staff, unlike with the Yankees and Dodgers because of Gerrit Cole and Ohtani (when he pitches again in 2025). The Mets top starter currently is Senga, but Yamamoto is mentioned as the one with better stuff. Yamamoto may not have Senga’s famous ghost forkball, but he throws harder with his fastball averaging 95 mph, which can top out at 99 mph. He also has a deceptive splitter which can be a top pitch in the majors, along with a cutter and curveball. Unlike Senga, Yamamoto also has terrific control, averaging only 2.1 walks per 9 innings. So if Yamamoto adjusts well in the big leagues, he can certainly take over as the Mets longtime ace of the rotation, if he decides to go there.
Very interesting. Im sort of convinced about #1. Sure Cohen has plenty of $, but I dont think it will be limitless. Plus you add in the Ynkees and Dodgers, who know how to spend money, I think salary is a wash.
The Senga angle is very interesting. Will it be complementary or competition? I can easily see both. I think you are mostly right, but from what I know about the culture, I cant imagine its a slam dunk. Senga a veteran, proven MLB starter, already ahead of YY, but then would be relegated to second starter and a relative puny salary. I imagine there could be some odd dynamics there.
I really like your Ace perspective. Regardless of 2 above, he would immediately slot into #1. Tjat wont be true across town and not likely in LA either. He will be the top of the hill from the get go. That would be appealing is my guess.
The money isn’t a wash. Cohen can and will outbid anyone, if it’s about money. He’s the richest owner in sports, not just baseball.
1. Absolutely. And with recent reports that the Dodgers are prepping an offer around $250 millions (https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/dodgers-considering-250mm-offer-to-yamamoto.html) and the Yanks probably capped at $300-320 (because they can’t offer more than they are giving to Cole), I think the Mets blow it out of the water. I’m betting on either a 10 year $350 mill deal, or a crazy high aav like 5 years/$250.
2. Senga has been on record as supporting the move and knows YY is going to get more $$ than him. Can’t see that being an issue at all.
3. Not only would YY be the ace, he’d be the star of the team if he performs well. As great as Nimmo, Lindor and Alonso are, their star power isn’t at the level of Betts/Freeman or Cole/Judge/Stanton. YY would be king of NY.
YY would be king of NY? He wouldn’t even #1 pitcher on the Yanks! King? What if he’s 12-10 with a 3.20 ERA? Pretty good but is he King? What if he’s a 5 inning stmmarter who starts every 6th day.,is that a King?
If he chooses the Mets over the Yanks or Dodgers (which is what the article was about and what i was responding to) and performs up to expectations, then yes – king of NY as opposed to 2nd or 3rd fiddle on the yanks, and 4th or 5th on the Dodgers.
If you go under the premise, once you’ve got so many dollars on the table, that what is most important to the player is to get a World Series ring, then the Mets do not have an advantage in this competition. It is hard to overlook the Dodger tradition or the Braves ability to win their division every year. I’m worried that if the Dodgers really open up their pocketbook, they could easily be a first choice for most players. Hoping YY chooses us. As an aside, SNY is showing a classic from 2016 and Wright, Conforto, Cespedes and Duda are the heart of the order. Do we have that heart for 2024?
Here is what I think. Cohen is extremely shrewd. You don’t get to be a billionaire 20 times over without being a shrewd shark.
What you state are the obvious. I am sure that Cohen and Stearns shared their plan for the team. I think it could be that once they sign Yamamoto, they go after Imanaga. It would be the great Japanese Trifecta, led by Yamamoto in the majors.
They will honor and leverage whatever they can with Japanese culture to appeal to him.
Yamamoto also knows that the Mets, with Cohens wallet will be competitive and challenge every year for 10 years.
My hunch is that I am certain that Cohen did super due diligence on what is really important to Yamamoto. I am honestly expecting the Mets to sign him.
Let’s also bet on the package. 10 years $ 375 million.
YY hasn’t thrown a pitch in the big leagues. $350+ million guaranteed?
I am not saying he is worth that much. But there is a feeding frenzy for him and what he signs for will probably be astronomical.
Welp.
Let’s take that $325 million and add Montgomery, Matt Moore, Robert Stephenson, and Justin Turner.
You know what Boom Boom, you are right. What are rhe Dodgers thinking. A billion dollars for two players.
I had this funny feeling that this was going to happen. I am sure that there is a plan B.