After finally reaching my goal of having more predictions right than wrong in 2022 – it was back to reality with the picks last year. While fewer than half right, there were six correct predictions, which is a solid score, given the self-imposed mandate to not make safe picks. But no one wants to read a bunch of boring predictions.

Instead, here are picks that will range from head tilting to eyebrow-raising to outright aggressive. But these are all things I believe will happen, not ones made simply to be controversial. So, here’s the 2024 list:

Brandon Nimmo will hit at least 25 HR, which is five more than the top forecast from the computer models.
Adrian Houser is removed from the rotation by the All-Star break.
Much like Nimmo in 2022, Pete Alonso has a career-best fWAR in his walk year.
While the projections have Starling Marte with at least 403 PA, he’ll wind up with fewer than last year’s 341 PA.
Francisco Lindor will have an AVG at least 20 points higher than his highest projection of a .256 mark.
Edwin Diaz, the alleged best reliever in the game, stays healthy but fails to make the All-Star team.
Sean Manaea will have a HR/9 mark of less than 1.0, while his lowest projection is a 1.28 mark.
Brett Baty gets sent to the minors.
Francisco Alvarez tops his highest HR projection of 25 by at least five homers.
Despite once having back-to-back UZR/150 ratings over 20, Harrison Bader will have a mark of 7 or under, his worst mark in any season with at least 500 innings.
Fourth outfielder Tyrone Taylor finishes with more PA than both Bader and Marte.
Jose Quintana finishes with an ERA a full run lower than THE BAT’s forecast of a 4.71 mark.
Jeff McNeil finishes with a SLG at least 20 points better than his highest projection of a .418 mark.
Jose Butto finishes with a lower ERA than Tylor Megill
After finishing 22nd in the majors in bullpen ERA last year, Mets relievers will finish in the top 10.

Hope to see you in the Game Chatter here on Opening Day, scheduled for a 1:40 p.m. start

11 comments on “Predictions for the 2024 Mets

  • Boomboom

    1. Brandon Nimmo finally makes an all star team. He starts in LF and leads off for the National league.
    2. He will be joined by 4 other NY METS. Lindor, Alonso, Alvarez, and Diaz.
    3. Pete Alonso will hit 30 home runs prior to the break. And finish with 58.
    4. Luis Severino will remain healthy all season and finish with an ERA under 3.
    5. Drew Gilbert will be the first of the big time prospects to be called up when Starling Marte goes down with an oblique strain the first week of May
    6. Christian Scott will be called up by mid-May and will earn the nickname “DeScott”. He’ll start 20 games, go 7-3 with a 3.24 ERA with 140 strikeouts against 12 walks. He’ll finish 3rd in the rookie of the year voting.
    7. Tyrone Taylor will play more games and have more ABs than Harrison Bader.
    8. Jose Butto will start more games than Adrian Houser.
    9. Drew Smith will finish the season with an ERA under 2.50
    10. The Mets will not blow a single game (again) when leading after 8 innings.

    • Boomboom

      Adding an 11th here:

      Mets will have the lowest team ERA in baseball.

    • Metstabolism

      The prediction for Scott is almost impossible and borders on hyperbole. He is a converted reliever who is still building up his innings, and threw only 89 innings last year. As such, he will likely be limited to about 120 IP this year. So there’s simply no way that he still has 20 starts left in him come mid-May. He will likely have to be shut down at some point in August. So there’s fairly little sense in the Mets bringing him up at all this year, spending an option in August, only to probably use his second option next spring.

      • Brian Joura

        One thing to consider is that the Mets had Blade Tidwell, coming off an injury, go from 48.1 IP combined in college and minors in 2022 to 116 IP in 2023. While I think it’s reasonable to pump the brakes on the “Scott to the majors” talk, I’m not so sure they’ll limit him to 120 or so IP.

        • Metstabolism

          There’s a difference. Tidwell had always been a starter, and threw 99 IP in 2021. Whether Scott throws 120, or 130 doesn’t change the reality that if he pitches 5,6, or more innings per start, he will have to be shut down before the season ends.
          But thats only one of a handful of reasons why promoting him as early as May is not going to happen, and promoting him at all this season is questionable.

          • Brian Joura

            My only issue with your original post was the absolute certainty of Scott being shut down after an increase of 40 innings. That could happen. But they could have him pitch more than that, too, and it’s just wrong to think that’s set in stone.

  • TexasGusCC

    I agree that Nimmo will make the all-star team. I say Alonso won’t and will have a batting average of .242.

    I predict Nimmo will be batting second by June. The leadoff man could be wither McNeil or Marte.

    I predict Alvarez makes the all-star team along with Lindor and Diaz.

    I predict Alonso will be traded in July after we hear that Boras wants Ohtani money.

  • John Fox

    Article says Nimmo will hit 2 home runs this year.. that must be a typo, right? Probably 20 is what was meant.

    • Brian Joura

      Thank you for alerting me to the missing number. It was supposed to say 25 and now has been updated. Love to see you around these parts, John.

  • Steve_S.

    My 12 Predictions for Our Beloved Mets:
    1. Manaea has a better ERA than Severino.
    2. Alonso again hits more homers than Judge.
    3. Mets trade some of their infield prospects at the trade deadline for a starting pitcher and a 3Bman and/or OFer.
    4. Mets make the playoffs.
    5. Alonso signs a 7-year/$230 million contract with the Mets. He is not traded.
    6. Alonso, Alvarez, Lindor and Diaz make the All-Star team.
    7. Alonso, Alvarez and Lindor all hit at least 30 homers.
    8. Scott, Vasil, Hamel, Botto, Lucchesi, and Peterson start over 35 games among them.
    9. Gilbert hits 10 homers after being called up.
    10. Diaz is NL Fireman of the Year.
    11. McNeil is traded after the season.
    12. Lavender gets called up, befuddles hitters, and becomes a folk hero in NYC.
    – Last year, I predicted a great year for Senga and even said that fans would come to games dressed as ghosts. And some did! (See Attachment)
    – I also predicted that Alonso would outhomer Judge, and he did.
    – And I said that Escobar would lose his 3B job to Baty by June 1. Yes, but it wasn’t pretty!
    – Of course, I also predicted a 92-win season and a wild-card spot!

  • José Hunter

    I detect severe optimism in several replies above

    Generally speaking, I predict the Mets in 2024 will have a slightly higher WP than 2023. Maybe .500

    My prediction for last year, had I (possibly) bothered to write it down, was a steep drop from 100+ W in 2023 to around 86 W in 2023. Too many career years (or nearly so) from too many guys implied serious regression to the mean. That is, 2023 was an outlier, which can be also inferred by examining WPs post 2016

    In hindsight, the above reasoning should have implied an outcome of below .500, but my projection would have been feasible had they not thrown in the towel so early in the season

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