Early in the year we see wacky things due mostly to small samples. And nowhere is this more apparent than with Mets top prospect Christian Scott, who has two games pitched so far for Triple-A Syracuse. And in those two games, Scott has displayed the electric stuff that has so many people so high on his chances to succeed in the majors. And there’s also something that might give us pause about counting the days until he’s promoted to Queens.
Scott pitched four innings in his first start and five in his second outing. And in those 9 IP, he has 19 Ks and 1 BB, which is absolutely fantastic. Scott has also given up 3 HR, which is more than a tiny problem. Which carries more weight? It’s tough to say, although my guess is it depends on what your opinion of Scott was before the start of the season. A bull will focus on the strikeouts and a bear will fret about the homers.
“A man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest…”
We have to keep in mind the level. There are an awful lot of Quad A types, players not quite good enough for the majors but with success in the minors that keeps them going for another shot. Of the 15 hitters in Syracuse to get a trip to the plate in the first 10 games, 10 of them have MLB experience. And two more are top prospects who figure to reach the majors some point this season.
While the percentages might be different from team to team, it’s a safe assumption to say that this is a normal breakdown of Triple-A rosters. Many of the hitters have MLB experience and a few more are top prospects on their way to the show.
Being able to post incredible strikeout numbers against these types of hitters is way more impressive than a 24 year old dominating guys in Hi-A, which is what Scott did for a portion of the 2023 season. At the same time, these types of hitters producing a HR/9 of 3.0 has got to be alarming, too.
You can say that what happened with three pitches can’t negate the tremendous results of what happened with the other 162 pitches that Scott has thrown here in 2024. But if these guys who aren’t good enough to hold down a job in the majors are taking him deep, what happens when he has to face Bryce Harper, Shohei Ohtani and Matt Olson?
The highest HR/9 rate last year for any MLB pitcher with at least 100 IP was the 2.20 mark of Chris Flexen. As you probably imagine, it wasn’t exactly a great year for Flexen in 2023; he posted a 6.86 ERA and a (-0.5) fWAR. In his first taste of Triple-A at age-23, Flexen had a 1.08 HR/9 and the following year he had a 1.26 HR/9.
Obviously, Scott is not going to continue to give up homers at this clip. He’s probably not going to have a 19.0 K/9, either. We’ll have to see where he settles in with both metrics. But as it stands right now, Scott has a 4.00 ERA and a 4.20 FIP. And with FIP using both strikeouts and home runs in its calculation, it seems relevant here.
There are 81 pitchers in Triple-A right now who qualify for the FanGraphs’ leaderboards and Scott’s 4.00 ERA ranks 40th and his 4.20 FIP ranks 35th.
Given his age, I was a bear when it came to the MLB chances of Scott. But his Spring Training outing against the Marlins, which was filled with MLB players – if only a couple of starters – was very impressive. In that four-inning stint, Scott fanned seven. And he also served up a homer to Jonah Bride. And he’s continued to rack up strikeouts and gopher balls in his first two Triple-A starts.
Scott didn’t allow a HR in six starts in Hi-A last year. In Double-A, he allowed 5 HR in 62 IP for a 0.73 HR/9. And to date, it’s 3 HR in 9 IP at Triple-A
It seems that Scott’s stuff is good enough to succeed in the majors. And if you look at his walk numbers, he’s not hurting himself in that department. But there’s a difference between control and command. If you throw the ball over the heart of the plate, you won’t walk batters. But the better the quality of hitters, the less often you get away with mistakes.
And the best hitters are still to come.
My guess is that Scott’s pitching coach at Syracuse is telling him to avoid the hot zones more and walk a few more batters. He does seem to have good stuff, with lots of swings and misses, using developing cutters and sweepers that struck out some of those Miami hitters in spring training.
Let’s see how it goes for him in the next month.
Here’s a link to a good detailed analysis of Scott from a month ago:
Do you have a sense of why the pitches that lead to HR is a story? For example are they related to command? Are they related to control? Or are they just bad pitches – like he failed to execute? Or is it youth and naivety?
I haven’t seen his minor league starts this year but I saw the one against the Marlins and the HR he allowed was middle-middle.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/gamefeed?date=3/20/2024&gamePk=747888&chartType=pitch&legendType=pitchName&playerType=pitcher&inning=&count=&pitchHand=&batSide=&descFilter=&ptFilter=&resultFilter=&hf=liveAB&sportId=1#747888
My takeaway from that ST game – where he was very impressive – is that Scott’s offspeed pitches were strikes but not good strikes. Or control over command.
Quoting Simon & Garfunkle in a baseball story now, are we Brian? I love it.
Well, they join Bob Dylan, Neil Young, The Who, The Beatles, Panic! at the Disco, Lucinda Williams, Jackson Browne and others quoted here.
I am a big bull on Christian Scott. I think he’s got “big game” pitcher written all over him and my guess (wish?) is that he’s one of those guys that gets better under brighter lights. The Mets seem to have coached their pitchers like the Rays staff – throw strikes, trust your stuff. I predict his starts are going to be must-see TV once he gets called up.